(This chain of thoughts was shared on Twitter on the night of 08 Oct 2023 and chronicles events / observations as on that date and time)

Folks, sharing some thoughts about the ongoing events in Israel. Let’s see how it goes ..

But first, let me take you 50 years back – to 06 Oct 1973.

That day, sometime in afternoon, the Egyptians executed a brilliant crossing of the Suez Canal and rushed ahead into the Sinai Peninsula that was theirs till 1967. At the same time, Syrians too attacked Israel from North.

As for the Israelis, they were caught with utter and complete surprise. Add to it the fact that it was the Yom Kippur Day, most of them were actually celebrating the festival at homes when Egypt and Syria crossed into Israel in a feat of military brilliance.

Not just was the Israeli intelligence caught napping, but the aggressors’ planning too reflected sheer brilliance. The very survival of Israel was on very shaky legs for quite some time, before they regrouped and halted the aggressions in their North and South.

The Yom Kippur War ended in a ceasefire on 23 Oct 1973 and Israel ultimately withdrew from Sinai a few years after that. I did a short, ten-tweet long thread on the 50th anniversary of that war this Friday. May have a look before moving ahead:

Moving on, THIS 👇 was the question I asked at the end of that particular thread.

I guess we know the answer by now, especially with the benefit of the events over the past 40 hours or so.

Exactly 50 years and one day after that audacious Egypt + Syria attack of 1973, Hamas entered Israel from the Ghaza Strip again. As of right now, Israel has declared war for the first time since 1973; such is the magnitude of devastation caused by the Hamas.

I don’t intend going into the morality part, or the right/wrong of what Hamas did or what Israel is doing/will do. I shared my views on that earlier today via this tweet. This applies equally to both sides, I’d say, and recent events corroborate that.

What I intend to do is to make a sense of ‘what’ and ‘why’ of this latest incident between Israel and Palestine.

Firstly, it should be looked at with respect to happenings in a geography much much beyond the Middle-East, i.e. Ukraine.

Just see the major countries supporting Hamas vs those supporting Israel. A bulk of them are to be found on opposite sides of the Ukraine War as well. Take that for what it’s worth, but I will also add something that happened in a different continent not very long ago.

Remember the recent coup in Niger?

Remember the fact that France didn’t want to accept the coup but was forced to, along with paying market prices for Niger’s resources?

Also, remember the appearance of the Russian Wagner Group there to ‘help’ Niger?

Noticed Russia NOT coming out in favour of Israel, but instead, giving out a statement which can be termed neutral at best?

Well, I personally am of the firm belief that these are just the latest fronts opened up against the collective West as a continuation of the Ukraine War.

One moment of silence for Zelensky and Ukraine might be in order, because regardless of the intricacies and monkey-balancing by the US Administration, fact remains that aid to Israel WILL come at the cost of aid to Ukraine, be it monetary or military aid.

Before moving ahead, let me just once again put out a disclaimer that what I write in this thread is purely my opinion based on my own reading of events! Take it or leave it; I am totally fine with what what the random strangers on Twitter think of my chain of thoughts!

Moving on, the world is clearly divided into ‘With them or Against Them’ camps, atleast with respect to this Israel-Palestine thing. Even India that has remained mostly neutral on the Ukraine issue has come out strongly in support of Israel, with PM himself tweeting about it.

Interestingly, India and Russia seem to be in different camps atleast as far as this issue is concerned. Equally interestingly, India and the entire Middle East seem to be in different camps as well.

Well, there are many different ways to look at it, but PM Modi’s tweet and the way it is worded, might offer some clues. I’ll just leave it at that. What is even more interesting is that China has remained studiously silent on this escalation in the Middle East!

What has happened is that with the opening of yet another front in the proxy war between Russia and USA, this time it is the USA which I believe will get stretched more.

With their own economy facing severe challenges, it might not be the best time for USA to have another military conflict to handle, but then, they no longer have a choice in that matter. That said, a $6Bn package to Iran not so long ago does raise some very interesting questions!

What happens next in this interplay of big powers will be a really interesting thing to watch.

Sad as the massive loss of lives in the immediate battlezone might be, there are much larger things at stake.

The world order as it obtained till not very long ago, was a result of two world wars and a failed League of Nations. It saw a wobble when the USSR disintegrated and the geopolitical vacuum was filled up by the collective West. Now, with Russia on the ascendant, along with China and an India that is also rapidly enhancing its clout, there are multiple challengers to the world order that has existed for the past 30+ years.

These are challengers that will work individually, as well as collectively when it suits them, in order to carve out a geopolitical space for themselves in the coming days and years. To think that there won’t be bloodshed would be foolish.

In fact, like it or not, there will be a LOT of blood that will be shed in the coming days and years. This was one of my first reactions on the Israel-Hamas fight that is currently on.

As I said, this is indeed just the beginning.

Or perhaps the beginning was in Feb 2022 when the first Russian soldier entered Ukraine?
This is what I wrote as my first chain of thoughts on the war, about a week after it began.
I’d like to repeat the BRACE YOURSELVES phrase here all over again, btw.

What comes next is anybody’s guess.

Will attacks on Israel intensify?

In fact, I believe Hezbollah too have opened up the Lebanon front already.

Will Israel’s retaliatory actions include kinetic attacks on Iran?

Does Israel even have the capability to strike Iran?

Will the USA go kinetic against Iran?

What happens to oil supplies and by association, oil prices if the Persian Gulf route is disrupted?

With the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves at an all time low, how much escalation suits them?

Lastly, is it the death of OPEC and their privilege of being the sole arbiters of oil prices? Will Russia now get a greater say in the same, ‘caps’ on Russian oil prices notwithstanding? And what about the Saudi-Israel ‘warming-up’?

Quite an interesting bunch of questions, no?

As far as answers go, all I can say is .. well .. we will need to Wait and Watch!

So, instead of looking for answers for the questions I listed above, let me try and offer some opinions on how this ongoing war between Israel and Hamas / Hezbollah might pan out.

It is a no-brainer that the Israelis got caught by absolute and complete surprise. It is also a fair call that the Hamas attacks were planned in great detail, including capture of hostages. That is also the reason I believe that Israeli casualties might even top the figure of 1000 by the time the dust settles.

That said, it is also true that by the sheer numbers horrific visuals that Hamas and others in Ghaza let loose on social media, Israel has got a full pass to react with as much violence, if not more.

Quite understandably, they have declared war. Not that they had a choice.

Also left unsaid, is the part where the question of With us or against us? by Tel Aviv has been mostly answered by most countries in clear and unambiguous terms.

This was the only possible option left for Israel – to go all out, and with extreme violence. I am holding myself from using the word indiscriminate before the word violence, but that is how Israeli response WILL get painted, rightly or wrongly.

Already, the usual suspects are crying buckets of tears at the destruction that has befallen Gaza within a few hours of Israeli response. However, the visuals of the same Gazans gleefully celebrating Israeli deaths, makes their case a bit difficult to defend.

Mind you, I am saying this from a neutral point of view, without going into the right or wrong of it.

As far as Israeli prisoners in custody of Hamas are concerned, there is a good chance that they will be used as a bargaining chip. But there are two issues related to that – firstly, bargains can only happen once guns stop shooting, even if temporarily.

Secondly, and more importantly, concessions by Israel will set a precedence whereby Israeli citizens kidnapped / captured through various means will become a norm.

To be fair, Israel has bargained with Hezbollah in return for its soldiers in the past, but this time the sheer numbers of Israeli captives will make any bargain deals that much more complicated. Hamas would want to extract concessions which Israel may be unwilling to give.

Thus, sad as it is to even type it out, I believe that a majority of Israeli captives may not make it back to their homes alive. The passions and anger on both sides of this war will make it extremely difficult for them to get back to their loved ones, if not impossible.

What will happen in return is the deaths of hundreds, if not thousands, of Palestinians in Gaza / West Bank. Israeli aircraft are already in the air over Gaza, their Navy has tightened the cordon on the seas and the Army is getting their men, women and equipment there as well.

Gas and electricity supplies to Gaza are already cut-off.
And more punitive measures from Israel must already be on their way.
It is not to say that it would be smooth sailing all the way for Israel either, but their intent is absolutely clear – RETRIBUTION.

Of course, it will lead to visuals that will only add further to the crying ‘liberals’ who champion the cause of Palestine day in and day out. But given the Israeli anger as well as the initial visuals of barbarism by Hamas fellows, I doubt Israelis would be very perturbed by it.

Also, this retribution by Israel will continue for atleast a few weeks, if not months, in varying intensity. But at that same time, once the immediate anger within Israel subsides, there will be uncomfortable questions that the Govt of the day will need to answer about the massive intel failure wherein they failed to see the planning and build-up for such a complex operation that would have taken months to prepare for.

Also coming soon would be questions about the condition of captured Israeli citizens, esp since Hamas wouldn’t let go of the excellent bargaining chip that they are.

All said and done, I expect the Israeli military response to be ruthless and devastating, but at the same time, I also see great political changes coming by in Israel over the next one year, as a direct result of this attack.

The entire Middle-East too will be ‘hot’ for the foreseeable future as well, especially with a hyper-charged populace that has seen the great ‘successes’ of Hamas and will now see the great ‘suffering’ of Palestinians due to Israeli retribution. There already has been atleast one reported case of murder of two Israeli tourists in Egypt.

Dare I say, this is not the last attack on Israelis or Israeli interests after the latest escalation.

As I close this thread, let me talk a bit about Indian interests and impact on India.

First and foremost, the IMEEC project might get a bit delayed, but in the long run, it will become a reality. Feel free to disagree.

Next is the case of Bhikharistan that lies to our immediate West. There already are reports of widespread orgasms in Bhikharistani populace who are once again fantasizing about similar attacks on India as well, just like this joker below.

Why I chose this particular joker from amongst the hundreds such orgasming Paakis is the fact that his Twitter Bio claims that he is Chairman National Peace Committee for interfaith Harmony!!

Irony just strapped a suicide bomb and blew itself, btw! 😂

But what will Pakistan do?

Of course, knowing their true nature, they won’t hesitate in orchestrating a similar incident in Kashmir, or even in other parts of India. But they are also quite well aware of the repercussions, given the experiences post Uri and Pulwama attacks.

However, and more interestingly, what would they do in a HYPOTHETICAL situation of a US-Iran shooting match?

Now THAT would be a show I would be willing to buy a ticket for!

Yet, within our own borders too, communal situations might develop in the coming days, thanks to the increased passions in the immediate aftermath of this Hamas attack on Israel and the retaliation thereto. This assumes greater criticality since the Nation is gearing up for the next General Election in less than 5 months from now.

While external fallouts of the Israel-Hamas conflict can be managed by various means, it is the internal challenges that need a more serious look, esp in the short term. THIS is what most directly affects you and me in a very short time frame, and hence, merits the greatest attention.

In the end, all I will say is that the Kaal Chakra keeps moving unimpeded, regardless of war or peace in the world. Just look at the national borders in the Middle-East. All of them are UNNATURAL, straight lines, including for Israel and Palestine. I’ll not say much beyond that.

Millions of people died in wars in just the first 50 years of the last century. Compared to them, our era has hardly seen any bloodshed.

Dare I say, it might be about to change.

So as I mentioned in the beginning of this thread, BRACE YOURSELVES for whatever lies ahead.

Oh, and I’ll just leave this little conspiracy theory here in this end of this thread. Take it For What It’s Worth!

:End of Blog Post:

 

So this tweet was tweeted on the morning of Sunday, 19th Sep 2023, after the hilarious allegations by Shri Justin Trudeau Ji, Prime Minister of Canada, in the Canadian Parliament :- 

I dedicated this to Shri Justin Turdeau Ji, who thinks he is doing a BIG service to his Khalistani constituency and leading them towards further electoral glory!
Thread coming up later this evening (hopefully!)
🤣 pic.twitter.com/OP28DotNY9

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) September 19, 2023

Later that night, I tweeted a chain of thoughts which I shall be chronicling here in my blog.

So folks, sharing some thoughts on the latest fart that Shri Trudeau Ji let out in the Canadian Parliament not very long ago! 

So, where did this begin, one must ask.

Well, the seeds of Canadian support to Khalistan were sowed much before Justin Ji was out of his diapers .. when his own father was the Canadian Prime Minister who not only saw the killing of 300+ Canadian citizens by Canada based terrorists that bombed an Air India plane, but was also the head of the govt that oversaw what I would say a DELIBERATE bungling of the investigation that followed. This is a thread dedicated to that shameful incident.

MUST go thru it. I INSIST

:THREAD:
Today is the 38th anniversary of the bombing of Air India 'Kanishka' by Canada based terrorists.
Replugging some thoughts on the same.
Canada, this one will haunt you till time's end. pic.twitter.com/QkI64hf0ac

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) June 23, 2023

(Here’s the above thread in this very blog – West and Terror – The Story of The Kanishka Bombing)

I guess it is fair to assume that little Justin, having grown up in a household (however dysfunctional it may have been, given that his parents ended up divorced) where Khalistanis were more likely to be patronised than shunned for what they are – Terrorists, he might just be carrying fwd the family tradition of ensuring that Canada is okay with terrorists not only living on its soil, but also ACTIVELY seeking to carry out acts of terror abroad.

But then, the poor fellow’s ‘Coalition Dharma’ provides him with an AWESOME alibi to look the other way!

Will come to the ‘Coalition Dharma’ of Shri Trudeau Ji in a while. Let me just talk about the latest happenings first.

But before that, just a bit about the joker that the Canadians elected to be their Prime Minister, even if with support of Jagmeet Singh and his bunch of Khalistanis.

THIS is the Canadian Prime Minister – a bumbling idiot that nobody actually cares about!

 

Remember his 2018 trip to India, the one with fancy costumes and garish dances .. and also that one Khalistani in the entourage who had to be dispatched back after a lot of humiliation at the hands of the GOI?

Well, even if you don’t, it doesn’t matter.

TRUDEAU doesn’t matter!

So he came again to India for G20, only to be kicked in his backside once again for terror factory running from sovereign Canadian territory!

This statement by the MEA on 10 Sep 2023 was perhaps the most BRUTAL they had ever given out!

Do read it before moving ahead.

To be fair, Canada has been a habitual offender when it comes to Khalistani terror against India. Heck, six months back too, the top Canadian diplomat in India was called to the MEA for a dressing down.

Of course nothing much changed, because .. well .. Coalition Dharma!

At this point, I am reminded of the famous Indian saying about ‘Kutte ki Duum’ and this nine year old tweet of mine!

 

 

Santa inserting dog's tail into pipe.
Banta: ye bevwoof, kutte ki dum kabhi seedhi nahi hoti
Santa: Idiot, main to pipe bend kar raha hoon!

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) May 25, 2014

I guess the GOI knows this as well, which is why when the poor clown Trudeau was stuck in New Delhi for two full days after the G-20 summit, practically no one of note in the GOI found the time to meet him, even if just to keep him busy!

Instead, there was atleast one Indian news channel that spent more than NINE straight minutes of airtime just to de-pant him, and to spank (figuratively of course!) his dirty white bum! And no one felt any remorse for doing this to a very deserving candidate!

So what does this sore-arsed guy do when he reaches back home?

Well, he suspends the FTA dialogue with India!

Boo .. Fucking .. Hoo, Canada!

With your own economy going down the shit-hole, LESS trade is exactly what you deserve, especially with India!

Go suck a lemon, I’d say!

Not quite satisfied with the suspension of the FTA dialogue (perhaps due to India not giving a Ratatouille?), he drops yet another BIG piece of turd in the Canadian Parliament a few days later!

(Note: Ratatouille is how his Khalistani fans pronounce Rat’s Ass. You are welcome)

INDIA KILLED A CANADIAN CITIZEN WHO WAS ALSO A TERRORIST, ON CANADIAN SOIL, he alleged! Yes, ALLEGED, because in his own sermon to the Parliament, he acknowledges that they have no proof, but just allegations!

The lunacy displayed by the idiot who has been elected as the Prime Minister by Canada was there for all to see!

He had no proof!

The ‘investigation’ was ONGOING!

Yes, it was quite a load of TURD that Trudeau let loose in the Canadian Parliament!

But, I must say, no one can better this comment by Shri @YearOfTheKraken Ji! Perhaps because it might be the CLOSEST to the TRUTH!

He was followed by a V.E.R.Y aggrieved Foreign Minister, Sushree Melanie Joly Ji, who said that “If proven true this would be a great violation of our sovereignty”

Then that idiot went announced expulsion of an Indian Diplomat!

On an allegation NOT YET PROVEN!

Bloody Nincompoops!

 

What followed was YET another well-earned spanking of Canadian Govt by all and sundry, diplomatically and undiplomatically as well! This is a personal favourite ‘undiplomatic’ spanking ‘coz it’s delivered by a former diplomat!

MUST WATCH first two mins!

Of course, the Indian Govt summoned the Canadian High Commissioner. And judging by his seething ‘Walk of Shame’ after the meeting, one is inclined to believe that he might have been given more than just a verbal lashing!

 

So angry was the His Excellency Bastard at being shown the true AUKAAT of his country that he didn’t even care whether the reporter, who is also another fellow human being, got hurt in the process of he slamming the door in the most undiplomatic way.

Btw, some ppl say this is an artistic rendition of what happened to the His Excellency of Canada in the MEA. But as of now it is just speculation. To quote the idiot Foreign Minister (refer a little above in this blog post), “If proven true this would be a great violation of our sovereignty” 🤣

 

Of course, being the geopolitical minnow that Canada is, they reached out to fellow G-7 countries for ‘moral and diplomatic’ support. Judging by this statement of that joker Trudeau, one can imagine the kind of support he must have got for this latest idiocy of his! 😂

Yup, he had to eat his words, dipped into a truckload of humble pie I’d say, perhaps delivered in one of the trucks that participated in the recent truckers’ protest in Canada which this ‘CHAMPION’ of free speech and peaceful protest so brutally suppressed.

But, saannu ki!

If you noticed, the clown once again said that he had no proof. So technically speaking, he chose to expel an Indian diplomat and get a Canadian diplomat expelled in lieu as also get his High Commissioner spanked (perhaps literally too!) in New Delhi!

Talking about international support, here’s what the UK Prime Minister had to say on the latest bout of diarrhea by Shri Trudeau Ji in the Canadian Parliament – ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! 🤣

So why would Trudeau take such a drastic step? And that too when the world is already more or less divided thanks to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Let me spend some time on this particular question.

Could it be to reassert his .. err .. manhood, figuratively of course, after the brutal spanking in New Delhi during the G-20?

Could it be to avoid discussion on the major issue of Canadian economy going down the drain, by creating an even bigger fuckup?

Or might it have been to reassure his Khalistani constituency that he still has some ‘mojo’ remaining in him?

Especially since his own party relies on Jagmeet Singh and his Khalistanis for support?

The idiot is being led on to do their agenda by the Khalistanis because they hold a virtual veto over his govt! This meme explains it beautifully, but I don’t think even the original artist would have noticed the bulge in the pants of the gentleman with the stick!

Trudeau thinks that he needs Khalistanis to last till the end of his term in 2025, and that he should do everything they want. But someone with even an average IQ would have realised that even the Khalistanis need him, in order to stay in power themselves!

And then there is the China angle!

Against India, it is only and only speculation .. but against China .. well ..

 

 

.@PierrePoilievre says PM Trudeau needs to provide more facts after the government expelled an Indian diplomat and accused India of being behind the murder of a Khalistani activist in B.C.

Poilievre also points out that in contrast, Trudeau was aware of China’s foreign… pic.twitter.com/xoGkZ2aiUV

— True North (@TrueNorthCentre) September 19, 2023

I am reminded of this nearly three-year-old tweet of mine about the recent ‘love affair’ between Trudeau led Canada and the PRC!

 

With the recent spate of news regarding China-Canada relationship, I found this to be the MOST APT recreation of the same!#JustSaying https://t.co/4BCzgi7489 pic.twitter.com/GeROSEWKxt

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) December 24, 2020

But in doing so, Canada has received YET ANOTHER slap from India.

Perhaps they didn’t expect such a tight one.

Perhaps THIS is the reason why the Canadian His Excellency was in such a foul mood?

And it is not that White Canadian settlers don’t have any skeletons in their own closets, mourning or no mourning! Do read the BBC report in this tweet below:

 

Canada mourns as remains of 215 children found at indigenous school

A MUST read piece.

Genocidal Bastards.
Period. https://t.co/XXkSvGMNre

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) May 30, 2021

A Khalistani terrorist killed on Canadian soil gets an Indian diplomat expelled WITHOUT PROOF within three months, almost as a three-month anniversary ‘gift’ to his fellow Khalistanis, but dare they talk about a fellow Pakistani murdered on their own soil!

 

Btw, contrary to the statements by the idiotic duo of the Canadian PM and his Foreign Minister, it is actually doubtful that Nijjar was even a Canadian citizen! But then, NEVER let technicalities or legalities come in the way of your agenda!

But then, it seems to be a govt filled with idiots, cheats and liars!

Here’s one more example – the NSA himself, who accompanied Trudeau to India in order to do some ‘plainspeak’!

Unfortunately, it didn’t quite happen as planned, because THIS report came out!!

‘Ulta chor…’: From ‘duping’ parliament to currying ‘undue favour’ for son, know who is Canada’s NSA Jody Thomas

No wonder, Canada is the laughing stock of the world!

But then, where do we go from here?

That’s an interesting question, no? 

So on the question of what comes next, well Canada will eat crow for sure. Indicators are already in place with Shri Trudeau Ji having made the grovelling ‘Non-Apology’ less than 24 hours after the wild allegations!

Of course, his massive ego will NOT let him cancel the expulsion of the Indian diplomat without proof. But we can live with that, especially with the video of a red-faced Canadian His Excellency walking out in great anger from the North Block to keep us entertained, I’d say!

So here is what WILL happen. Firstly, the Khalistanis will be further emboldened.

Heck, Canada based terrorists have already committed one murder in India within hours of Trudeau’s ‘Trud-Drop’ in Canadian Parliament : On Cam: Congress Leader Shot Dead in Punjab, Canad-based Khalistani Terrorist Claims Responsibility

Since Canada has already DEMANDED Indian cooperation in the killing of Nijjar, would they not be willing to ‘cooperate’ in the murder of an Indian politician inside his home, with a Canadian Khalistani citizen having gleefully announced his role in it?

Or would they try and be selective, while Trudeau shields his Khalistani brethren for the sake of the votes that they throw back at him?

Does that not make Canada a State Sponsor of Terror?

Don’t worry, I am not asking you to answer that question.

But that said, It would gladden my heart no end to see the GOI ask Canada to bring that bastard to justice for having VERIFIABLY committed a crime inside India, unlike the mere allegations that Trudeau and his Foreign Minister were crying hoarse about.

Will Canada oblige?

Or is it the responsibility of India to prove innocence because White Man has pointed a finger at us?

Or is it that only Canadians are permitted kill fellow Canadian citizens, aka Kanishka bombing?

Because the botched investigation points at Govt endorsement.

Regarding the dying Khalistanis, dare I say, that WILL continue.

Trudeau’s whining allegations be damned.

Who kills them is anyone’s guess. It is Canada that nurtured these snakes on their soil. It is Canada which will see them fall on its soil. It is Canada’s problem, NOT mine!

In fact, Trudeau has put their lives in further danger, because any more dead Khalistanis are great news for vested interests!

This might be a ‘tongue-in-cheek’ article, but it does hold a valid premise : Gurpatwant Singh Pannu next? Not killed by ‘Indian agents’, but Pakistan: What some in Intelligence believe might be fallout of Justin Trudeau’s shenanigans

That said, I for one wouldn’t be shedding any tears!

On the diplomatic ‘pinging and ponging’, I would say that the GOI wouldn’t do anything more, atleast overtly and atleast for the time being. But .. expect more focussed and sustained pressure from India on Canada now onwards on all issues, not just Khalistan.

The sanctimonious bastards have already been given a glimpse of their Aukaat in the recent days.

It now needs to be hammered down their heads. Lack of support for this latest bout lunacy by Canada from fellow white countries has also been duly noted, btw.

It might have to do with internal politics and bruised egos at being shown mirror after mirror while in New Delhi, but the idiot that introduces himself as the Prime Minister of Canada has definitely bitten more than he can chew.

Of course, the nakedness of Emperor Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada which is a STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM will only be announced with more and more vigour for the entire world to see : Canada a hotbed of separatists, requests for deportation ignored: India

And ordinary Indian netizens tagging FATF is just that extra ‘dhaniya-mirchi’ that people here are so fond of! But as they say, every single drop matters. Who knows which drop creates an entire deluge, especially with smoking guns in plain sight!

 

I think it is time to wind up this chain of thoughts now.

Firstly, I would like to compliment each and every reader who, despite my account’s shadow ban, took time to read this thread and YET no one pointed out the deliberate spelling mistake in Trudeau’s name in the first tweet embedded in the very beginning of this blog post!

Well done!

Lastly, let me just say that I don’t think this latest bout of Trudeau’s lunacy has anything to do with his wife leaving him, as some folks on social media have been speculating. Nothing could be farther from truth, in fact.

Why?

Because he’s been an idiot since much b4 that!

Heck, he is merely following his ‘equally illustrious’ father’s footsteps, who too couldn’t make his marriage last. Of course, it was his wife that was blamed due to mental illness!

I am sure, growing up in a dysfunctional household contributed a bit to Trudeau Jr’s mental growth!

But that is his personal problem, not mine or anyone else’s.

What concerns me is he and his ego pointing their dirty fingers at my country, while not even attempting to hide the crap in their own.

Of course Komagata Maru points to institutionalized racism since long.

In the end, all I will say is that yesterday was a beautiful Ganesh Chaturthi, heralding many new beginnings, right from inauguration of the new Parliament building to the expulsion of a Canadian diplomat from India!

Ganpati Bappa Morya!

I’ll just add this tweet here. Spks volumes about the kind of people Canada actively ‘welcomes’ to its folds. I’m sure they would’ve done a background check on Nijjar, YET accepted him as a citizen. Perhaps because he perfectly represents Canadian Values?

Nijjar had an Interpol Red Corner Notice against him when granted Canadian citizenship!

Canadian support for Khalistani Terror against India CANNOT get any more blatant!

This harshly worded advisory that clearly mentions POLITICALLY-CONDONED, is a good slap from Bharat.

Two Volumes spanning 1574 pages.

Started reading on 26 May after taking four days to gather the courage to actually start!

Finished on the night of 21 June.

Spent the better part of three weeks ignoring every task because I just couldn’t let go of this masterpiece. Sharing some thoughts ..

First and foremost .. JUST ORDER A SET FOR YOURSELF!

The narration is brilliant, broken down into small chapters so as not to make reading it a daunting task. On the other hand, this makes the books difficult to put down, given the greed of reading ‘just one chapter more’!

A true masterpiece of human relationships and politics from a different age altogether, from a churning of ages in fact. Just a cursory reading gives you so many insights and so many epiphanies that one ends up kicking oneself for not having read this much earlier.

The biggest realization that dawned upon me while reading this masterpiece was the fact that killing of folks who were against Dharma wasn’t frowned upon. It was in fact, considered to be one’s bounden duty to do so. No courts were assembled to pass verdicts either.

That said, there were very few mortals that were infallible.

Even Yudhishthir had to atone for the sin of telling a half-truth to Guru Drona in the battlefield, before he was accepted into heaven. That said, he only told the half-truth because there was no other way for Dharma to prevail. That, and the fact that he was ordered to do so by Lord Krishna himself! Thus Yudhisthir was justified in doing what he did.

In fact this was almost the underlying theme throughout the Mahabharat – The constant tussle between Rajdharm and Swadharm. At different times, one or the other prevailed, depending on the situation and sometimes, gentle nudging by the Lord himself.

In fact, thousands of years later, even Chanakya guided Chandragupt Maurya with much the same advice.

Then there is the overwhelming tide of fate which no one, not even Lord Krishna himself, could turn back. This too was used as a perfectly acceptable justification of various actions by various players throughout the Mahabharat. So much so that even Gandhari’s curse regarding the end of the race of Yadavas and of Lord Krishna himself too was humbly accepted by the Lord, stating that it was indeed what was fated.

That said, when the time for the inevitable came, even the Lord himself hoped against hope that some miracle might save his clan. After all, he too was in a human avtar!

However, fate prevailed, as always, including the death of the human form of the Lord himself.

This was yet another underlying theme of the people that lived in that age – Unquestioning acceptance of the inevitability of fate when the time came. This was as true for Duryodhan as it was for Bheeshma or Dronacharya. Yet they carried on doing their Dharma, awaiting their fate.

Duryodhan took a long time to understand this. And the loss of a number of his best warriors, including Karna. But realize this ultimately, he did.

Even on deathbed, he held Yudhisthir in high regard, implicitly knowing that he was indeed the Dharmputra and without any malice.

Drona knew that Dhrishtadyumna was born with the specific purpose to kill him. Yet when he was sent to Drona’s ashram for education, he taught him everything he knew and ensured that he became an excellent warrior. Dhrishdyumna was the Pandava Senapati when he killed Dronacharya on the battlefield when he was the Kaurava Senapati.

There was a lot of hue and cry over the way Dronacharya was killed, when sitting in Dhyan, unarmed.

Yet, it was Drona himself who had told Yudhisthir about the only way he could be killed.

And this, in the middle of the war when the Pandavas had no answers to their Guru’s valour! Dharma wasn’t yet fully dead.

This was the case with Bheeshma as well, when he himself told the Pandavas that only way to kill him was to have Shikhandi give him battle. He knew, it was Amba who had come to claim him for herself after her humiliating end two lifetimes ago. He gladly accepted death at her hands.

Then there was Karna .. the ultimate tragic hero.

He made it a point to have a moment with all his four brothers on the battlefield wherein he disarmed them gave them the gift of life. After knowing the truth post war, these were the most cherished moments for them all.

A major highlight was the Geeta. It took me four and a half decades in this lifetime to realize that the Geeta was called thusly because the Lord actually sung it as a geet to Arjun on the Battlefield!

Such beautiful insights in the short excerpt of the Geeta within this book!

It is the primal truth, which deep down I think most of us know .. atleast those of us who hail from these lands of Bhaaratvarsh for sure. Yet, in the midst of short-term goals of our mortal lifetimes, we lose sight of the ultimate goal – Mukti.

It might actually be a good idea to take a break from the urgent and focus on the important every once in a while. But then, there needs to be a healthy balance in performing your manifest duties and yet, striving towards Mukti.

Ultimately, what I feel perfectly summarizes the message is the fairly popular shlok:

कर्मण्येवाधिकारस्ते मा फलेषु कदाचन।

मा कर्मफलहेतुर्भूर्मा ते सङ्गोऽस्त्वकर्मणि॥

Bottomline: Just do your dharma without any attachment to the final outcome.

So long as you remain true to your cause, and detached from the end result, you are doing good. The atman is neutral, as unaffected by good as it is by bad. Ultimate aim is to become one with it!

The one thing that I had no idea about, was the knowledge imparted by Bheeshma to Yudhishthir after the war, while he waited for the Sun to change its direction to Uttarayan before he left his body.

Such wise words of wisdom and knowledge were imparted by him to his grandson that it merits to be studied in its own right, especially by politicians and public servants of today.

Sharing some nuggets here in this blog post.

1. When time comes, never hesitate to wage war! Yudhishthir, this policy applies not only with enemies, but friends as well.

2. Greed is the single root of evil. Greed destroys dharma and punya.

3. Restraint is the quintessential dharma.

4. Time is always shorter than we believe, and a man must acquire virtue as quickly as he can. So, my child, avoid procrastination in your life.

5. It is desire that makes a man sin.

6. Abstinence from wine and meat is superior to celibacy.

7. When a man realizes how ephemeral this world is, he sees the truth; then death holds no fear for him. For, the fear of death springs from attachment.

8. If his spirit is enlightened, it doesn’t matter if a man lives in his home or in the forest. He is a sannyasin.

9. When a man is unattached to objects of pleasure, he is liberated.

10. What a King does depends on the times, and the King who does not hesitate to do what the time demands seldom fails. While a King who is unbending, seldom succeeds.

11. The King, on whom his people rely, must never hesitate to be ruthless with his enemies. It must not be beneath him to use treachery, fire and poison against them.

12. A King’s first dharma is to worship the Gods, and to honour the Brahmanas who are illumined men. But he himself should always be a karma yogin, a man of deeds.

13. I would even say that a king’s deeds are more powerful than destiny.

14. There is also a fifth man, who serves only dharma. This kind is rigid, and a king should exercise caution while confiding in him.

15. A King’s demeanour should be unafraid and straightforward. He must not be too mild. He will be disregarded if he is, and his subjects will have no respect for him. That doesn’t mean he should be harsh or tyrannical, and that his people should be unduly frightened of him.

These are just a few of the many nuggets of great wisdom imparted by Bheeshma to Yudhishthir. As I mentioned earlier, Bheeshma’s discourse to Yudhishthir merits an entire study by itself.

Bheeshma’s too was a life lived on a razor sharp understanding of dharma, even though he ended up fighting for Adharma in Kurukshetra. Yet, despite knowing that the winning side would be the one where the Lord himself stood, Bheeshma fought a good fight, true to his dharma.

Till the very last day of the war, he kept telling Duryodhan that his was a lost cause. He even accepted all barbs that came from the mouth of Duryodhan when the war wasn’t going his way. Yet, he was always aware of the larger picture, and kept loving Duryodhan till the very end.

Millennia after Maharishi Ved Vyas Ji wrote the Mahabharat, here was yet another warrior from the lineage of such illustrious ancestors who quoted the Mahabharat from his own final battlefield:

 

हतो वा प्राप्स्यसि स्वर्गं जित्वा वा भोक्ष्यसे महीम्।

तस्मादुत्तिष्ठ कौन्तेय युद्धाय कृतनिशचयः।।

These immortal words inspired Arjun to once again pick up the Gandeev and prepare to battle. These same words continue to inspire warriors such as the one above, even to this day.

Of course, even during the war, Arjun still had some moral dilemmas, especially when it came to fighting Bheeshma Pitamah and Guru Drona. At these times, verbal barbs by Lord Krishn were duly administered in order to remind Arjun of his Kshatriya Dharm.

Yet, Lord Krishn was still forced to summon the Sudarshan Chakra when Bheeshma was effortlessly cutting down the Pandavas’ army, while Arjun was unable to summon the Will to stop his Pitamah.

For Bheeshma, it was as if the Lord was coming at him not with a weapon, but a blessing instead. A blessing to rid him of the responsibilities and the weight that he had borne for so long. However, Arjun was able to hold back the Lord by promising to fight with all his might.

The one occasion that Lord Krishn actually used the Sudarshan Chakra was when Arjun had sworn to kill Jaidrath for his role in the killing of Abhimanyu. Arjun’s vow to immolate himself if he failed, gave an avenue to Drona and Duryodhan to win the war by just defending Jaidrath!

Lord Krishna wasn’t very happy with Arjun’s vow either, and he made his displeasure known on more than one occasion. Yet, he prepared to ensure Dharma prevailed, i.e., for which Jaidrath would have had to die.

Thus came the Sudarshan Chakra, to hide the Sun and fool the Kaurava’s into thinking that Arjun had failed to keep his vow!

Now, would you call it deception?

Or would you call it Adharma?

Regardless, what you or I think doesn’t matter one bit. Bottomline was that Jaidrath had to die. And the Lord ensured it.

Which brings me to another aspect that these books cover regarding the war – Lord Krishn too had his worries about the ultimate outcome of the war at times.

He worried about the Shakti that Lord Indra had given to Karna.

He worried about Karna himself.

Of course, Bheeshma and Dronacharya had already told the Pandavas about how they could be killed; this too at the Lord’s insistence at they asking their elders candidly!

Mind you, he was the Lord Himself! He knew what was fated.

Yet he being worried is something that I find quite amusing. His wards, the Pandavas, had their own free will and there definitely were occasions when they had to be guided, gently or sternly, as be the case.

All that I can say is that He played his part in human form perfectly – that of the सूत्रधार of this saga!

He worried when he needed to, he smiled when he needed to, and he celebrated when he needed to. Yet, he was The One, who otherwise sits unperturbed in the heavens above.

Coming back to Karna, Lord Krishna made him use the Shakti on Ghatotkacha, in order to ensure the safety of Arjun in his moment of reckoning.

Karna himself already knew that he was to die at the hands of Arjun.

He also knew that he would forget the mantras to invoke his Devastras.

He also knew his true identity and lineage.

He had been told of it by his mother herself, as well as by Lord Krishna, both of whom requested vehemently that he join his brothers, the Pandavas in the war.

Karna chose not to.

Karna had no choice.

Karna was one of the very few who was not just obligated to fight for Duryodhan, but who actually saw the good side of him. He was also one of the very few people whom Duryodhan could actually call a friend. He just could not betray him. So Karna fought as hard as he could.

Of course, he was fated to die, thanks to the curse of Lord Parshuram and that unknown Brahman. Lord Krishna didn’t waste time in prompting Arjun to kill his eldest brother when he was not just busy trying to free the wheels of his chariot, but had also in fact, implored Arjun not to shoot in this duration.

Yet Arjun shot the final, fatal arrow in this very moment when Karna was at his most vulnerable.

It was fate.

It was the Lord himself ordering him to do so.

And thus he did.

Karna too, like many others, was a good guy fighting in the wrong side. He had to die. Yet his death wasn’t an occasion of joy. I’ll quote from the book about this moment :

When he kills Karna, Arjuna raises his conch, the Devadatta, and blows on it, and Krishna sounds his Panchajanya. Neither blows a joyful note. It is as if they, his enemies who killed him, are sad he is gone. Arjuna feels a part of his own life has ended.

Unquote

Karna had played the role of the eldest brother of the Pandavas as well as the inseparable friend of Duryodhan, to perfection. The way for reconciliation was to die during battle. Yet, he had humbled each and every Pandava in battle once, including Arjun, before dying.

One other aspect that kept jumping out at me was the fact that even these mightiest of warriors weren’t beyond a tactical retreat in face of enemy if things weren’t going their way. These included Duryodhan, Karna, Dronacharya and even Bheeshma himself.

In fact, all of them together were forced to retreat by Arjun when he fought for Uttara Kumar at the end of his Agyatvaas.

But as I type this particular chain of thoughts, another one jumps at me – Not once did any of the Pandavas chose to, or have to leave the battlefield.

Being firm in Dharma ensured that they prevailed each and every time. Of course, Dharm Dev himself killed them all, except Yudhishthir, when he came as a Yaksha to test him by the pond where they wanted to drink!

All in all, the Lord ensured that the Pandavas prevailed. He used all means required to ensure that. It wasn’t always what you may call to be in perfect sync with us mortals’ understanding of Dharma.

But the Pandavas had so totally surrendered themselves to Him, that they never questioned Him.

They didn’t need to either!

That said, there are far too many lessons to be learnt even for modern days.

Most importantly, when it is a question of the interests of Rashtra, swadharm can always take a backseat This is the burden that a King has to bear, for his Rajdharm is to ensure that his people flourish.

Vyasa Muni tells this to Yudhishthir in to help him overcome his grief after the War: A King has no right to indulge his own grief. A just King’s time has always belonged to his people, and only to them .. His task is just to rule them; beyond that he has no other truth, or life.

As I conclude this blog post, I’ll just jump back to the ‘questionable’ means used by Lord Krishna. He is crystal clear in his explanation to the Pandavas – ‘If we had not used some judicious deceit, this war would have been lost .. For me, nothing could be worse than that.’

This is what the Lord told his elder brother, Balaram, when he wanted to kill Bheem for delivering the unethical blow to Duryodhan’s thighs:

Quote: If you did not fight against evil, atleast you must not fight for it. Kali Yuga has come to the world. Nowhere on earth shall pure dharma be found any more, but only mixed with Adharma. The fault is only time’s. Evil and violence are the signs of the Kali. Destiny fulfills herself darkly in the fourth yuga, and this is only its beginning. Unquote

Of course, Duryodhan himself went in peace, assured of his place in heaven, for having died a Kshatriya’s death as well as doing further penance by lying on the battlefield in unbearable pain, before passing on. And he did find Swarga, as did all the Rakshasas who had been born as his brothers, not only by dying on the battlefield but also due to the immense virtue accumulated by their mother herself.

I close this blog post by yet another quote by the Lord: All things in this world exist for a purpose; when their purpose is served, the cease to be. And so it is with men, Arjuna. It is so with all of us: even Me.

Thanks for your patience, folks.

I found this book immensely enjoyable to read. And my kids too will read the same in the days to come.

Do read yourselves too, if you can. 

 

 

Folks, sharing some thoughts on the Russia-Ukraine War that has just crossed the one year mark. Strictly my opinions, so feel free to disagree.

Let me begin with this horrific video montage of relentless bombardment of a major city, housing millions of non-combatants.

Btw, the above visuals are from the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the great US of A and Even Greater Britain, plus a host of other ‘willing’ partners. Interestingly, next week will mark two decades of that invasion on an utterly false premise, for which the culprits didn’t face ANY sanctions whatsoever! Neither were any warrants issued by any International Courts against the chief perpetrators, as in the case of Vladimir Putin some hours back!

Instead, the victim country was destroyed to the extent that they are still struggling to stand up.

Btw, the same culprits are today collectively united in their ‘horror’ at the invasion of Ukraine by Russia!

So we know why the USA and others invaded and destroyed Iraq. They had irrefutable proof that Iraq had WMDs!

Proof, that was pulled out of thin air! Proof, that some say wasn’t pulled out of thin air, but from some other body part in the nether regions!

But then, that hardly matters, right? No one even talks about that anymore, despite the millions of non-combatants that died.

Well, who will dare talk about Iraq and the horrific abuses there, especially when the culprits themselves are the self-appointed custodians of the ‘Rules Based World Order’, no?

PS: When was the last time you hear about Abu Ghraib? Let me refresh you a bit :-

But then, it is Ukraine that I am supposed to be talking about in this thread, so let’s go there now!

Let me start by replugging this 11 yr old tweet here:

Peace is an unstable equilibrium.Out of 3421 years of recorded history only 268 yrs didn't have war. So war isn't an option,but a constant!

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) November 27, 2012

Throughout our history, war has been a constant. So those that are aghast at yet another war, are merely trying to imagine a utopic world which has never existed. Instead, this cacophony of voices on social as well as mainstream media is, IMO, due to the fact that the collective West sees it as an opportunity to get an advantage over Russia.

It is no secret that Russia has been one of their Principal adversaries. So much so that at the end of the cold-war, instead of reaching out to co-opt broken and hugely malleable Russia as a fellow traveller in the world order, they decided to push the knife deeper.

With the disintegration of the USSR, instead of scaling down NATO (and actually promising to do so), it instead galloped closer and closer to Russia, with newer and newer members. The Georgia War of 2009(?) was one Russian reaction that should have told them that NATO was getting too close to Russian borders for their own comfort.

Of course, I am aware NATO is a voluntary organisation and any country has the right to aspire to become a member of the organisation.

But by the same logic, a country that is the exclusive target of an ever-expanding and an ever-closing military alliance to has the right to feel concerned and consequently, secure its own interests, no?

Of course, a pragmatic neighbour would have seen such red-lines, especially from a much larger and powerful neighbour and even if begrudgingly, accepted them and made their peace. But then, you had this in Ukraine:

Of course, with a comedian presiding over the rapidly sinking Ukraine, any chances of backpeddling / deal-making that some other, seasoned politician might have done, were simply non existent.
Small wonder then, that the Russian troops soon entered Ukraine!

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) March 1, 2022

The war started not on 24th Feb 2022, but instead in 2014 when a democratically elected govt in Ukraine was toppled with the help of Maidan protests and replaced by one that was decidedly Anti-Russia and Anti Ethnic Russians in their own country. This resulted in the Russian invasion of Donbas in Aug 2014, followed by the Minsk Agreement in Sep 2014. However, it broke and Minsk 2 Agreement was signed in Feb 2015.

Interestingly, this brought into focus, the ‘Little Green Men’ that were said to have fought against Ukraine!

Now why I bring out ‘Little Green Men’ in the tweet above was because the same phenomenon is being repeated, but with a Green Screen instead!

The ‘show-man’ is putting up a brilliant show indeed!

And he is being feted by the entire ‘civilized’ world too, as these visuals from his recent Europe visit indicate!

In their own eyes, he is winning against the big bad wolf too! But I shall come to that in a while.

To be frank, atleast in my opinion, Ukraine is just an expendable entity so long as it is able to impose some cost on Russia before dying. Here is what folks are saying about Ukrainians being expendable, with increasing frequency!

Btw, If not the first one to say, but I think I was atleast the first one to claim copyright on this phrase – They will fight Russia till the last Ukrainian!

Heck, even Putin Ji is saying this!

And jokes apart, he isn’t wrong about it either. This is exactly what will happen.

Thanks to its unique circumstances, Ukraine was always doomed to be a fighting arena for great powers, just like Afghanistan and even Tibet have been.

Coming over to the military operations, thanks to their experiences in Chechnya and Georgia, as also Donbas, it is fair to assume that the Russians miscalculated the time required to achieve their military aims.

In addition, by delaying the launch till end of winter olympics in China, the snows thawed out & cross-country movement became much more difficult for their military vehicles.

But most importantly, they miscalculated the amount of military support the West would give Ukraine!

It pretty soon turned from a ‘Special Military Operation’, to an existential war for Russia. They took some time to recalibrate their actions. But the West took it as a sign of collapse and were V.E.R.Y quick to declare victory!

Result: Hubris set in pretty solidly.

Resultantly, the collective euphoria in the West made it nothing short of blasphemous to even talk about Russia having a point of view about their security interests wrt Ukraine! As mentioned above, Zelensky was feted all over.

And why not .. he had stood up to Putin after all!

All Russian voices were drowned out and even de-platformed by the so called CHAMPIONS of free speech!

What that caused, however, was for the West to become prisoners of their own propaganda IMO. Now they just can’t walk off without their citizens crying out bitterly in protest!

Not one of those govts tell their citizens that they kept pushing NATO closer & closer to Russia, and that now they blame Russians for being close to NATO!

They had imposed so many sanctions on Russia that it was bound to fail in its nefarious designs, they told their citizenry instead!

But apparently the sanctions didn’t have the desired impact as had been in the case of .. say .. Iraq!

In short: Whether they like it or not, but from Russia, now it has become an existential war for the Western Nations themselves. Such has been the hubris in them, in fact, that the German Foreign Minister declared war on Russia on behalf of the Entire EU!

Of course, she had to eat her words pretty quickly!

Btw, it is the same Germany that has suffered a direct & massive blow by the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, some say done by its own allies! They tried to blame Putin, but by he not reacting to this bait, they are tripping over themselves to apportion blame to someone!

Neither do they tell their citizens that Russia is already in possession of over 20% of Ukrainian territory which they are unlikely to give back! Despite throwing billions of dollars in cash & military aid, all that they have to show is merely a slowed down pace of Russian advance.

And of course, a large number of bank failures! Oh wait, that happened in the USA .. My bad!

So perhaps it is correct to say that all those sanctions have essentially failed?

Ok, so time for a short break from all that you might have read so far. Here’s a video of a reporter and her reporting of the horrific attacks on Ukraine from last year!

(PS: I should’ve said : ‘horrific reporting’ instead of ‘horrific attacks’! My Bad!)

Carrying on, let me start by posing a question: Can Ukraine even dream of a ceasefire if its western benefactors don’t want one? Especially with the leverage that they have created over Ukraine with the 100s of billions of dollars ‘invested’ in the war?

Technically, it is no longer Ukraine fighting Russia.

It is already NATO fighting Russia, with Ukraine merely as a front.

They throw money and equipment in the war, with Ukraine gambling away its sovereign territory and sacrificing the lives of its people.

Not a very bad deal for the West, no, this ‘outsourcing’ of war?

Btw, for all that have been shouting hoarse about the Wagner Group of Russia, I find practically no one even making a peep about the Ukraine Foreign Legion!

Yes, THAT’S the power that comes with the ability to control flow of information and narratives! Of course, it also helps extinguish ‘provocative’ channels broadcasting a harmless event!

But for all the shrill narrative building, the upholders of ‘free’ speech seem to have actually painted themselves into a corner by not leaving any scope for an end to this war short of utter and complete humiliation of Russia, which, btw, doesn’t seem to be happening!

So let’s try and see what the future holds as far as this mess goes .. Some days ago when Germany placed a destroyed Russian tank in front of the Russian Embassy, instead of celebrating it, there were protesters laying flowers, seeking peace.

Fatigue and economic pain is real.

And this DESPITE their foreign minister already having declared war on Russia on behalf of the entire EU!

Btw, it is the same Germnay that is now importing much more expensive LNG from US and other sources than what it would have been getting via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia. Who destroyed the pipeline, is anybody’s guess because neither Russia nor Germany did that!

Going ahead, one thing is for sure – the moment the Russian Parliament passed a resolution to annex certain areas into the Russia State, any negotiation with respect to those is off the table.

As far as Russia goes, fight is now to ensure that Ukraine ceases to be a politico-military problem of any worth. They don’t want a Pakistan on their borders, that’s for sure. So any negotiated end to this war will be at huge cost to Ukraine – geographically as well as otherwise.

A few possible endgame scenarios that might happen are as under:-

Stalemate

Negotiated Settlement

Breaking up of Ukraine (will delve on this a bit more)

Ceasefire, followed by negotiations

Ousting of leadership, either in Ukraine or Russia or both.

Of course, there is one more potential endgame scenario that some folks are talking about in hushed tones. It is this:

The questions I asked in this tweet above still stand. I’ll add another one to it: Might it give them an excuse to finally end the war?

Unsurprisingly, there are idiots who are actually salivating even at this horrific possibility!

Coming over to a more pragmatic (in an ideal world) solution – that of a negotiated settlement. Question is, who will ensure a fair negotiation acceptable to both sides?

The experiences of Minsk 1 and 2 agreements are all too recent and too well known in any case.

In any case, Ukraine stands to lose a LOT of territory East of the Dneiper River even in case of a negotiated settlement. However, what happens to the rest of Ukraine? Can it reasonably expect to survive as a sovereign entity in the aftermath?

Or will it become a state entirely dependent on Western aid to survive, especially after losing much of its productive lands in the East?

And most importantly, will Russia accept this?

Another question: Who will pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine? The comedian is already DEMANDING to be paid hundreds of billions of dollars to keep fighting. Do you reasonably think that his successors will not demand even more monies for reconstruction?

Will the West be able to mount a Marshal Plan for Ukraine?

Will they seek reparations from Russia instead?

Well, we all know how the reparations thing will pan out in any case.

To cut a long story short, I personally don’t see any outcome that does not involve complete and utter end to Ukraine as it existed on 24th Feb 2022. All that can be done is to try and salvage as much of it as can be done.

All in all, it is a very pessimistic outcome that seems likely. Yet, the earlier we get to it, the better it is. Western sanctions on Russia and assistance to Ukraine has not worked as they had anticipated.

If not controlled now, the war seems quite likely to expand in scope, with levels of involvement (and stakes) of outside powers may end up going even higher. The recent incident with the Russian aircraft and the American drone over Black Sea is a pointer in that direction.

Of course, there is already talk in more than just a handful of world capitals regarding getting access to nukes, in order to ensure their own safety. Poland, Iran, Japan, S. Korea come to mind as far as this goes. And they do have a logic they believe in.

Of course, one positive outcome of this war could be the revival and scaling up of the American MIC which will only come in handy in case things with China go kinetic in the near future, just like they almost did during Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year!

As I end this chain of thoughts, all I will offer is that the era of globalization is well and truly finished. The best outcome is to cut losses and sue for peace, instead of shouting about an imaginary big bad wolf outside your house.

The world order as it existed till Feb last year is well and truly finished. It took two world wars and a failed League of Nations to have come to that world order. A new one will come with much more pain, IMO.

In the end, I’ll just add this graphic here without any further comment:

 

JMTs

Thanks for your patience!