Willful partners of Pakistan, or unwitting accomplices – I’ll leave that to your judgement
So this tweet generated quite an interesting discussion on my mentions yesterday.
Even though the circumstances regarding the WHO meet have changed by now, yet I will take some time to take this chain of thoughts forward. So here are my thoughts on whether it is time for Indian to change her policy on Taiwan.
Firstly, why the current policy?
Well, this is due to the Paranoid Republic of China’s insistence on the world recognizing Taiwan as their province; basically the ‘One China Policy’.
Never mind that the Taiwanese have been administering themselves for the past 71 years in a democratic republic that the Communist overlords of China can only find threatening to their very survival!
After all, how can a ‘renegade’ province of the Middle Kingdom be democratic!
So much so that they go on issuing ‘experience’ certificates to all that ‘dare’ to engage with Taiwan!
With their increased economic and military heft, they have been successful in bulldozing practically the entire world in keeping Taiwan at an arm’s length.
To be fair to the CCP, they did it because, well, they could!
Might is right, after all!
I won’t delve much on that since it is a well known fact. However, what has happened in the very recent past is that the #WuhanCoronaVirus pandemic has shaken the very foundations of the current world order.
I wrote about that some weeks ago, HERE.
Herein lies an opportunity for the entire world to shrug off the rising Middle Kingdom & their arrogant, sanctimonious ways.
Knowing the Chinese, they must have prepared a roadmap for next 50 years as to how to go about their ‘peaceful’ rise & who all to ‘teach a lesson’ on the way as they do so. But this #ChineseVirus pandemic and their typical handling of the entire mess has put a MASSIVE spoke in the wheels of history that the Chinese must have planned for themselves.
EACH and EVERY person in each and every country, more or less, is seething with anger at them.
Even as Trump said that the US might even de-couple from China in ALL respects across the board, others too are doing much the same, or atleast a bit of the same.
Bottomline is that the world is changing faster and faster, geopolitically speaking.
India won’t be immune to it either, in case anyone of us is thinking that way. We may not be faced with a ‘With us or Against us’ question, but the thing is that we will be EXPECTED to play the role of an upcoming power that we are.
Going forward from this point, let me offer a disclaimer – I am in no way prescribing a ‘way ahead’ for Govt of India. What I write hereon are strictly my personal views!
I am sanguine that the GOI will act in whatever way they feel is best for the country under current circumstances. It may or may not conform to my views, but so be it!
Coming to the issue of India and her re-evaluating relationship with Taiwan, let us be very clear about one thing – The current relationship is what it is, thanks to the ‘sensitivities’ of the Paranoid Republic of China.
Let’s have no doubt about that.
And, a reset in the India-Taiwan relationship too will be an outcome of the state of India-China relationship.
Which brings me to the next question – What is the current state of the India-China relationship?
Well .. does that really need an answer?
China has been our neighbour ever since they invaded Tibet in 1950. Ever since then, they have been an excellent example of a BAD neighbour.
I’ll be glad to be corrected on the above statement!
I think this tweet below sums up the current India-China relationship perfectly.
The Paranoid Republic of China is NO ONE’S friend. They will act nice if you kowtow. Else they WILL do all in their powers to undermine you.
As far as India goes, they have been shielding the terrorist Masood Azhar at every international forum. They have been dumping cheap goods in our markets, undermining our own manufacturing industry.
Heck, they provided the NUCLEAR BOMB to Pakistan!
Oh, and did I tell you that they also provided missiles to Pakistan to deliver those nukes to India?
Well they did!
How else would Pakistan – a country that didn’t even manufacture ball bearings at that time, get a missile programme all of a sudden?! (State Department Issued Public Notice of MTCR Sanctions Against China.)
So, is it time for a reboot of India’s relationship with China?
I’d say, YES it is.
We are in the midst of a massive ‘Manthan‘ these days. In fact the entire world is.
All thanks to the #CCPVirus.
Indian economy is staring at another 1991 type moment today – both in terms of challenges as also, opportunities. Given the recent announcements by the Finance Minister, the changes expected in the coming months are not merely expected to stem the downfall, but instead, to unshackle it all over again and establish India as a major manufacturing hub, unburdened by antiquated laws.
Herein also lies a hint in what the Prime Minister said – Aatmanirbhar Bharat!
For all those who care to listen, it also means saying NO to cheap, CCP subsidized Chinese imports that are killing our own industry.
Thing is, that this blog post of mine might actually be a bit too late, and a reset of India-China relations might already be well and truly underway.
Hints too are everywhere.
Trump has well & truly shaken up the ‘normal’. And to compliment him, there is a GOI with an immense popular mandate as well!
Now since I said that ‘hints are everywhere’, does that mean our friends, the Chinese too are listening to it?
I’d say yes they are.
So how do they react?
Well, you may want to revisit this tweet again!
Recent transgressions on the LAC do point to an arm-twisting kind of a tactic in order to warn India to stay away from the US-China spat. Such transgressions have happened earlier too, most prominently when Emperor Xi ‘Winnie The Pooh’ Jinping visited Gujarat some years ago.
So, to that end, it could still be dismissed as mere posturing.
But then, via their commie proxies in Nepal, they opened up another front – a non-existent border dispute at Lipulekh Pass.
Do you still think this is mere posturing?
Well, I don’t.
To me, it seems that the Chinese have already fired a shot across our bow.
What makes me say this?
It is THIS statement by the Chinese representative in New Delhi that made be take note!
And he says it with a straight face, no less, even as his army gets into fisticuffs with ours on the borders!
A popular saying about ‘actions and words’ comes to my mind!
Bottomline: The world is rapidly realigning.
Non alignment in this time and age might not be an option.
Heck, it might not even be advisable since we might have more to lose than gain if we stand aside!
Just as the Lord knew that Mahabharat was inevitable, despite he himself taking the Pandavas’ offer of peace in lieu of five villages to the Kauravas, so is this new and upcoming New World Order.
To stand aloof is NOT going to be an option this time round.
Especially when India stands to gain perhaps the maximum out of a PRC cut down to size. I wrote a BLOG on what I foresee coming in the coming weeks and months, less than two weeks ago.
Dare I say, things are already moving that way.
Do have a look at the above quoted blog post whenever you get the time!
What might be the first shot, remains to be seen.
For all we know, it might be forthcoming at the WHO in a matter of a few hours from right now (Coalition of 62 nations backs Australia’s push for COVID-19 probe)
Disagree with me on the W.H.O thing?
Well, that’s your choice.
But I did notice that Chairman Xi Jinping postponed a major CCP event that was about to happen at about the same time.
Do tell me again why he is not spooked!
Guess why the Chinese are so angry with Australia for asking for an independent probe into the origin of the coronavirus pandemic?
Do they feel threatened?
If not, then why are they lashing out?
Heck, there is already talk in the USA of an alternative grouping in lieu of the W.H.O in case they do not desist from doing Chinese bidding. Just see this video at about the 1:15 mark!
Like I said in the beginning of this blog post, it STILL might not begin at the W.H.O, but happen it will!
If not this week then maybe the week after.
If not at the W.H.O, then at the economic front.
But happen it will!
Why do I get the feeling that a reset of relationship with Taiwan will form an inescapable part of this upcoming showdown?
Not just by the US, but by India as well?
If not full diplomatic recognition, then maybe a vote in their favour over China?
Food for thought, no?
Yes, Taiwan’s map of China claims Arunachal Pradesh. But will that really matter in case China itself retreats from Tibet?
Yes, I know it is a long shot, but not entirely impossible.
In any case, whom would you prefer as a neighbour when it comes to resolving a boundary dispute – an intensely dogmatic communist regime that simply will NOT listen to reason, or a democratic nation who is open to negotiations?
Remember the enclaves swap with Bangladesh some years ago?
As I wind up this blog post, all I will say that time has come to bite the bullet, either which way. It is nothing short of a ‘Dharm Yudhh’ that faces us and the rest of the world.
Yes, the ‘Manthan’ that I talked about above WILL throw up poison as well, before the nectar.
But it will happen regardless of we being part of the Manthan or not.
We should be prepared to deal with the poison, in order to get to the nectar eventually.
The more people there are to share the poison, the better it will be, no?
Even if it is in the form of a vote in favour of Taiwan, if not an outright diplomatic recognition, all I’ll say is Bring It On!
We should not, in fact we CANNOT sit this one out.
What I have learnt / observed after about a decade plus of my experience with social media that what you see above is this the favourite ‘comeback’ of Pakistanis, regardless of what begins a ‘discussion’ with these folks, especially when their views are NOT solicited in any case!
Though this sample is yet another Pakistani who has made it to my muted accounts’ list, I thought I’d indulge this one just a tad bit more.
The buggers across the border seem to be a bit too overtly infatuated with the state of access to toilets in India. To be fair, there did use to be some merit in this line of thought till about five years ago, no doubt.
Till the previous Govt of India built 100million+ toilets, that is!
Yes, mindsets will take still a bit more time to change, but change they will. More so once each and every household gets piped water as planned by the current Govt of India.
But then, who will tell the yahoos inhabiting the lands to our West is the moot question.
Another question is that of living in glass houses and YET choosing to change clothes with lights on!
HERE is a report from one of their own newspapers quoting a figure – A figure of 41 MILLION Pakistanis without access to toilets. A figure that is almost TWENTY PERCENT of their reported population!
They will continue to be infatuated with us poor Indians, despite the 110 million toilets constructed in the last five years!
Let me spend some more time with the report above.
So Wikipedia tells me that Lahore is a city of more than 11 million people. YET, they only have 21 public toilets in the city!!
Yes TWENTY ONE ONLY!!
And most of them are plain filthy.
I didn’t say it. Their own newspapers report it!
NO Pakistani defecates in the open as per these ostriches.
To top it, they also get magical powers to see Indians across the border lined up on railway tracks!
In addition, they will just not tell you that 125,000 of their children die each year due to diarrhea before reaching the age of five. Read this and weep, dear reader, for a country that is unable to control diarrhea deaths. (HERE is the link to a Pakistani newspaper reporting these figures, in case you have any doubts)
Not only that, they are content to report that the number of deaths have remained stagnant over the years, instead of going down – something which a proactive government and a somewhat ‘normal’ citizenry would have ensured!
Of course the glass house dwelling Pakistani will point fingers at India as well.
Well, India, with more than six times the population, has fewer number of diarrhea related deaths for children under the age of five.
And what’s more, the absolute numbers for India too have been declining steadily over the years, reducing by 52% in the last one decade itself! (LINK)
I’m sure ‘friends’ from across India’s Western borders will be glad that they have beaten India in yet another statistic. Kudos to them all!
Oh, and the above report also contains a V.E.R.Y interesting statistic about access to sanitation India. I’ll just leave a screenshot for the benefit of our Pakistani ‘friends’ who are still stuck in the past, of course without blinkers that prevent them from seeing their own sorry state!
But then, what are a few hundred thousand children dead for a country which not only brought back Polio – a disease eradicated from much of the civilized world, but also actively hunts down its own people trying to immunize its children against it, right? But this is a topic for some other day.
Let me, for the time being, take you back to the screenshot above.
Why, you ask?
Well, because here is a comparative statistic – 52% Pakistanis lack access to sanitary facilities compared to 19.35% Indians! (HERE is a Pakistani report giving the statistic of 52%)
Oh, and another interesting nugget of info reported by their own press – 79 Million lack access to a decent toilet! (LINK – 79m Pakistanis still lack a decent toilet: report)
BUT .. despite all those new toilets constructed, India still needs to be mocked, because, well Ostriches continue to live in the past!
Of course, with 60% of the population living at less than $2/day, it is better to look outside for solace, no? (LINK – Why poverty hasn’t reduced significantly in Pakistan)
Hence the India bogey!
But what they forget is that India is well on its way to add a Pakistan (economically of course), to its GDP every year within the next 3-4 years!
And with Pak GDP growth rate just about equal to or even less than the population growth rate and about to fall further in the wake of the current #CoronaVirus mess & with govt revenues falling short of even the yearly debt servicing commitments, well, point fingers at India!
Here are some statistics from the Beggar-in-Chief himself.
The Pakistani PRIME MINISTER himself says that 55% Pakistanis don’t have access to a toilet. I guess being a nuclear power with a bloated military budget covers up for it, right?
And here’s some more on the toilet saga in Pakistan, once again straight from the Prime Minister.
I know this is a very dark chain of thoughts, but then it just had to be laid out here in the fashion I have done, even if for nothing else than just archiving facts to counter the nonsensical propaganda from across.
Poverty is indeed the biggest challenge. As an Indian I know it all too well. And I do NOT mock others’ poverty, especially when my own country still has far to go.
But then, some folks just need this treatment.
First set your OWN house in order and only THEN point fingers at mine, especially when my own economy is doing way better than yours, and better than almost everyone else’s in this world despite the myriad economic challenges.
Folks, moving on from THIS blog that was posted about two weeks ago, let me share some ‘wild’ conspiracy theories about what I see happening in the coming few months.
Once again, writing on the go, so let’s see how this chain of thoughts goes!
Firstly, let me share with you all what triggered this chain of thoughts.
It was the tweet by Trump that the Chinese would be happy to see him lose the upcoming elections. Here is a screenshot of the tweet :
Now this is B.I.G
Here is a sitting President of USA openly insinuating that China is the enemy as far as his re-election bid goes.
Let me just say that such a statement means that he is committed to make China lose in order to win his upcoming re-election bid in about six months.
Is this a ‘spur of the moment’ tweet? I’d say not. Reason – The politician in him knows that there is widespread anger & disgust against China, thanks to the fiasco that their mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent attempts at ‘managing’ the public perception that actually backfired, thanks to their high-handed attempts. Did a short thread on Twitter about that as well. May have a look HERE, if interested.
So coming back to this blog, what does it mean, going ahead.
A constituency already exists which will endorse anything he does against China. And this cuts across political affiliations amongst the American electorate. What I foresee is a number of events in the coming few months that will, in all probability, make relatively recent US-China Trade War pale in comparison. Yes, this is likely to happen within the next few months, or even in a matter of weeks since timing it to pay dividends during the upcoming election won’t be a bad idea either!
Once again, remember, the US Presidential election is ONLY about six months hence. Another thing that underscores this belief of mine is the relatively speedily moving chain of events / statements from people in the know.
Sharing some screenshots here (For your eyes only!)
Go through the screenshots in the above thread again.
Fairly routine, no – blaming China and blah blah blah?
Or are they?
Yup, look again!
THIS is the one that caught my eye when it appeared on my TL!
Did the US just call for junking the ‘One China Policy’, adherence to which is COMPULSORY if you want the Chinese to ‘oblige’ you by doing business with you?
Well, looks like the US Mission in UN just took the wind out of the sails of the ‘One China Policy’!
This is H.U.G.E
An interesting nugget of info – Till 1971, it was the Republic of China (or Taiwan) that held the permanent UN Seat along with the Veto, which was thereafter given to the Peoples Republic of China after the Nixon-Kissinger led détente with Mao.
But .. coming back to the four screenshots shared above. Here is another one.
Why this tweet?
Because the phrase “Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down This Wall!” actually spurred the breaking down of the Berlin Wall & subsequent break-up of the USSR.
Talk about signalling, eh?
So, signalling apart, what is it that the USA under Trump can actually do to China?
Well, I’d say there is a lot that can be done.
It can range all the way from tariff increases to throwing out all Chinese companies and businesses from the US!
I understand if you say I am daydreaming outlandish dreams. I won’t fault you for that. Remember, I used the words ‘Conspiracy Theories’ in the very beginning of this blog!
So, back to my flights of fancy!
Remember, America just announced a stimulus package of TWO TRILLION dollars to jump-start its economy. The question is, where does this money come from?
Of course, they can simply print away in their dollar printing presses, no?
They can seek reparations from China?
Just like a few other countries are already doing, no?
In fact, they are already in the process of doing so, by the way of lawsuits already filed in US courts or in the process of being filed!
Do you still think it is mere signalling and hot air?
If it were merely so, why would China be spooked like hell?
Why would Shri Hu Xijin, the de-facto social media mouthpiece of the CCP make this ‘not so veiled’ counter-threat?
What does he know that we don’t?
And more importantly, what does China have to lose in the midst of this all?
Let us see ..
(A) 1.1 TRILLION dollars worth of American debt that they have purchased by the way of American treasury bonds.
(B) (Well, do you need any more examples after the above one?!)
The question now is .. Will He Do It?
My counter question to that is .. WHY WON’T HE?
What does he have to lose, huh, except a second term as the President of the USA?
You do the Math!
There are already talks about removing sovereign immunity of China in US, remember?
Would China react?
Of course they would!
Chairman Xi ‘Winnie The Pooh’ Jinping wouldn’t want to be sent to a re-education camp, would he?
‘coz that is exactly what will happen since he is already mightily weakened within! (If you don’t believe me, start by reading THIS piece)
To top it, his ‘defeat’ in the recent US-China trade war hasn’t done him any favours either!
Now, top that with the COVID-19 and the attendant negative press and you get my drift, right?
Btw, speaking of Xi Jinping, here is what I tweeted some weeks ago!
But then, when it comes to a matter of life and death, can China afford NOT to react?
They did react in whatever way they could during the trade war.
But to what end?
Bottomline – They have no counter leverage on the US.
But, what is to say that things will only stay confined to economic realm?
A dying empire of an emperor who has everything to lose will simply HAVE to thrash out, even if in sheer impotence. Here one needs to look at recent happenings in South China Sea as well!
(HERE is the link to the tweet above, for those interested)
What bolsters my belief is the fact that the US is rapidly reclaiming the space it had to unwillingly cede to China due to its Navy getting laid low on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Heck, USS Nimitz is already on its way to the SCS!
Here’s some more food for thought, btw!
Btw, Taiwan too is moving in to play the game.
They’ve waited long enough for the day they achieve their manifest destiny. To them I’d say, time is nigh!
One wouldn’t be surprised to see Taiwan actually end up in the UN at about this time next year!
Bottomline – The China dream is over. Their dreams of playing the big brother to the rest of the world will not fructify. They still have NO idea about how much bad press they have accumulated for themselves in eyes of practically each and every common citizen of the free world.
The hubristic and autocratic CCP have failed spectacularly in failing to recognize that people outside of their control won’t simply roll over and believe whatever propaganda they dish out.
And then, they seek to interfere in democratic elections in the USA of all places!
Coming back to the US elections – do you also see a political masterstroke in Trump’s statement that Joe Biden is China’s preferred candidate?
Do you see what it does to Biden?
Trump has forced Biden to prove that he is NOT doing China’s bidding, atleast till the election day!
All in all, I foresee a repeat of the US-China trade war in the coming few weeks, only this time on steroids.
Chinese industry being chucked out – Check
Lawsuits against China – Check
Chinese assets being seized – Check
Chinese govt personnel being sanctioned – Check
USS Nimitz transiting thru the Taiwan Strait – Who knows!
A shooting clash in the SCS – QUITE likely, I’d say
Removal of Xi Jinping by 2022 – Very likely
US recognition of Taiwan – ??
But then, this is all just a conspiracy theory / figment of my imagination, no?!