(This chain of thoughts was tweeted on the night of 5th August 2019. Somehow I forgot to archive this in the blog. So here it is!)

So this is straight from the mouth of a fly on the wall in GHQ, Rawalpindi about the goings on since 10:30am PST earlier this day.

Here goes ..

The Brown Pants Chief was tunned .. err, sorry .. stunned upon hearing the Indian Home Minister. Did Amit Shah really say what Bajwa had just heard? Or was it his ever present companion – ear wax – that had caused him to hear something else entirely?

It was a bit too early in the day, but what needed to be done couldn’t be delayed any more. After mulling over whether he should do it or not, he picked up the secure telephone line on his desk. And passed a short and crisp order – ‘Oye ADC, chheti ik glass lai ke aa!’

Now while he waited for his ADC to get him his favourite crystal glass, he took out the keys to the safe kept safely hidden inside his office. One moment later, the key was in his ears, scraping out the ear wax for the fourth time this morning.

Damn, it felt sooooo good!

Ears cleaned, he went back to his favourite news channel – NDTV – to confirm his worst fear.

Yes Amit Shah had indeed announced not just the abrogation of Article 370 & 35A, but also hived away Ladakh from J&K. Not just that, but Jammu and Kashmir was to be a Union Territory henceforth.

O B***C*** .. he shouted at no one in particular, just as the young and beautiful Captain Jamal entered his office with his crystal glass!

Get me the Propagandu-in-Chief, he thundered at the ADC.

Yes Sir, the shaking youngster replied and practically ran out of his office!

It was not even 11 am, but he needed that scotch to calm his nerves. So out came the key once again, and this time instead of his ear, it went into the safe.

Out came his bottle of Blue Label, bought from the Duty Free in Washington!

Yes, it would help him think better!

He was on his third and (hopefully) last tot when in came the Propagandu-in-Chief, smiling his irritating smile.

Oye Ghafoore, hunn ki kariye?

Don’t worry Sir, replied the Propagandu-in-Chief, I have already personally cleared the hashtags that we will trend on twitter!

Those Indians will not know what hit them. Aap bas dekhte jaiye Janab kaisi aag lagayenge hum!

The Supreme Brown Panted one let out a loud sigh ..

Then he asked – Ghafoor Janab, toh phir ye Indians Article 370 phir se wapas le aayenge?

Predictably, Propagandu-in-Chief broke into that toothy grin of his because he had nothing to say!

Ghafoor Saab, now you know why you still haven’t been promoted to become a crore .. err .. corps commander?

And just like that, the grin vanished!

And what the fcuk is this #KashmirParFinalFight wala hashtag that you have highlighted, hain? Don’t make those fanboys / fangirls ask for something you cannot deliver.

Kaun ladega Indian Army se? Aur Air Force / Navy se?

Aap jayenge?

Taken aback, Propagandu-in-Chief offered an explanation.

Lekin Janab, Balakot ke baad ki saari fights to hum hee jeete hain .. kam se kam twitter par hee sahi! You don’t know Janab,even last night I won another Twitter War, this time against @AdityaRajKaul!

Ye dekho screenshot!

Oye Ghafoore, B***C***, agge ki karna hai?, Bajwa slipped into vernacular, unable to take this sophisticated bullshit anymore!

Janab, aap jaisa bolenge waisa hoga, Propagandu-in-Chief hit the ball back in his boss’ court with equal ‘finesse’!

How long did we take to issue a formal statement after the Osama bin Laden raid?

Janab, 48 hours.

Ok .. the Boss replied .. he wasn’t too keen on breaking the record.

Btw Janab, apne DGISPR wale handle se ek condom wala statement daal diya jaye?

Oye khotey, CONDEMN hota hai! And no, let the bloody civilians reply. Aisi cheezon mein khud panga nahi lena kabhi.

Ji Janab, Should I call Imran Saheb?

No wait, let me call him.

Oye, uski kal raat ki utar gayi hogi na ab tak?

Utar gayi hogi janab!

Bajwa – Oye Imran, oye uth gaya tu? .. Good, have you heard the news? .. Good, Trump ko phone laga toh, let us hear what he has to say about this Kashmir thing .. Achha? .. Sachchi? .. Chal koi na, let us wait for a while then ..

All OK Janab?, Propagandu-in-Chief asked.

Oye nai oye, Imran was saying that Trump abhi so raha hoga. Washington mein abhi bhi raat hai na. In any case, India may be looking to hire Trump to actually mediate on OUR ‘Azad’ Kashmir!

An involuntary ‘Otteri’ escaped Ghafoora’s mouth!

So what do we do now, Janab?, Propagandu Boy asked his Boss even as he stared at the bottle of Blue Label longingly!

Koi na, do one thing, add one more hashtag to your twitter campaign with UN and maybe OIC also. If not on battlefield, we will show them on Twitter atleast.

Propagandu-in-Chief suddenly perked up, the long awaited promotion back in sight!

Already done that janab – ye dekhiye screenshot!, said he even as he gave himself a mental high five for being so clever!

It seemed that the Boss too was happy to see it.

Yes, he was going to give him a Shabash!

Ya khuda, maza aa gaya! Ab promotion duur nahi! Thank you Amit Shah Bhai!

A loud OYE from the Boss however, brought the daydreaming Shri Propagandu-in-Chief back to the present!

OYE KHOTEY, what kind of hashtag is this – #UNandOICsaveKashmiri ?

Abe, ab log bolenge ke Twitter pe bhi bheekh maangne laga hai Pakistan.

And just like that, Ghafoor Miyan’s wet dream of a promotion came to an end!

REMOVE THIS HASHTAG, thundered the Boss!

Err .. Janab .. this is one of our best performing hashtags this morning .. the average citizen is very happy with it.

But no, the boss wasn’t interested in any explanation.

And then he let out an inconvenient truth!

I DON’T CARE, saala bhikhariyon ki kaum ho gayi hai hamari.

Ji Janab, came the expected reply!

But Janab, what about an official statement on the issue?

FUCK OFFICIAL STATEMENT, came the reply.

Lekin Janab, kuchh to bolna padega.

Why should the Pakistan Army be speaking on foreign affairs?, asked the BrownPants-in-Chief.

Before he could control it, an involuntary chuckle escaped Propagandu-in-Chief’s mouth!

Pakistan Army is after all, the OWNER of Pakistan .. or whatever was left of it after 1971!

Lekin Janab, kuchh to bolenge na hum .. kam se kam apni awam ke liye hee?

GET LOST .. NO STATEMENT .. came the next command from the Chief Brown Pants who was on his fifth ‘tot’ of Blue Label by now!

And out ran Ghafoora, praying that the Boss doesn’t remember this conversation when he wakes up!

With this, the fly also flew away!

But on a more serious note, it has been more than 12 hrs since the announcement to trash Article 370 was made in the Indian Parliament. Yet there has been no word on it by ISPR, or Asif Ghafoor’s personal handle, or even Imran Khan’s handle!

Heck, there has been not a SINGLE tweet by them all throughout this day, which is, well a bit out of ‘character’, since they are normally fairly prolific with their twitter handles!

One can very well imagine the dance of headless chickens going on in Rawalpindi & Islamabad!

For all their social media bravado, when time comes to put their money where their mouths are, they all clam up! What is interesting is that after systematically working up the yahoos that compromise much of their awam, now they don’t know how to fulfill their ‘expectations’!

The entire Govt of Pakistan had gone into a tizzy when the bin Laden raid happened. It was perhaps for the first time that a national govt didn’t know what to say, for a full 48 hours!

What today’s events have done is that it has made them go mute all over again, the utterance of their loudmouthed foreign minister notwithstanding!

THIS, folks, is the impact on Pakistan of what the GOI has done!

I conclude this blog post with this twitter poll, posted in the immediate aftermath of the Balakot strike:-

By the time the guns stop booming in this round and the dust settles, who do you suppose will still have his job intact?

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) February 27, 2019

This chain of thoughts was tweeted on 12 April 2019. However, the good old moi forgot to archive it here in the blog. So here goes, even if 3.5 years too late!

Folks, sharing the story of the day my account ‘Temporarily Restricted’ by the good folks at Twitter.

Why I share this, you ask?

Well, I share it because I can BECAUSE MY ACCOUNT IS NOW BACK IN MY CONTROL!

It began late night on 10 Apr 2019. I had just finished yet another tiring day of chhutti, doing nothing, when I realized I should do something!

That something turned out to be a thread on Shri Propagandu-in-Chief and the ‘भसड़’ he had created about all his F-16s being alive!

So late, that by the time I finished the thread, it was not even 10 April, but 11th April! So I decided to call it a night and went off to sleep since I felt that I should be well rested for another day of .. well .. doing nothing!

I slept soundly that night, patting myself on the back for yet another brilliant thread. And then, despite it being a chhutti day, I still woke up almost at the crack of dawn – at 8am!

The Missus was busy because .. err .. she was not the one on chhutti   😀

One ‘not so loving‘ glance from her and I decided to make my morning cup of tea myself! As the water boiled, I unlocked my ‘very’ smart phone and opened Twitter. Anticipation and Excitement was high. (Because of that ‘brilliant’ thread of last night, remember?)

Hmm.. Twitter seems a bit ‘different’ today.

Must be a new update, I mused.

Until my ‘very’ smart phone finally opened the app. And my world came crashing down!

The good folks of Twitter seemed a tad bit unhappy with me!

So unhappy, that they even created a graphic, just for me!

Disclaimer: Above graphic is shared strictly for academic purposes, lest I lose my account again!

So, the algorithm developed by the good folks at Twitter had decided that I was being hateful for calling a Paki, a Paki!

But they were still quite considerate, I must say.

Delete that tweet & you’ll have full control over your account within 12hrs, they offered. In the interim, you can browse twitter, but not engage with anyone except via DM, they said.

As I read the message, I could almost picture one of my strict school teachers admonishing me!

However, they knew that I too might have a point and that they might be wrong. So they even offered me an alternative to deleting the tweet. APPEAL, AND YE SHALL BE HEARD, they said.

But that benevolence came with a caveat – THY APPEAL SHALL TAKE SEVEN DAYS, it read.

I made a mental note: In case I make a social media app some day, I’ll hire the same legal experts as twitter. Atleast they have a sense of humour!

But, mental musings apart, there was a decision to be made.

Thankfully, I was prompt in making it.

I promptly deleted that tweet!

I could almost hear a sigh of relief at the other end by the ‘good’ folks of Twitter!

Heck, I tried to listen closely and I swear, I even heard a faint applause!

So happy were they, that they couldn’t wait for the 12 hours to get over soon enough.

So happy that they even put out a countdown timer for me to track my ‘progress’!

I kid you not!

So the immediate issue taken care of, now I didn’t know what to do for the next 12 hours. I started thinking.

And then I sent out some DMs – OYE TERE KO PATA HAI MERE SAATH KYA HUA?

And right on the heels of those DMs came a mini outrage that made my notifications tab run faster than an Afghan hound! This was totally unexpected.

And that thread on the Propagandu-in-Chief (without the offending tweet, of course ) went viral!

But I still couldn’t engage with anyone. So I decided to go out for lunch, with some good folks of Twitter that I’ve connected with offline. More Twitter talk followed, even as I checked my custom made countdown timer.

9hrs and 6 minutes of penance left, it said.

Dammit, I cursed, even as I sipped on my glass of nimbu paani. Atleast they could have added a ‘seconds’ counter along with the minutes and hours, so that the time could have passed a bit faster!

But, deep within, I was happy merely to note that atleast they gave me a timer!

It was a slow day indeed. After all, how long can one keep staring at a countdown timer, and that too without seconds, hainji?

So post lunch, I ‘volunteered’ to pick up the kids from their bus stop in the afternoon.

The kids were shocked!

Not because I had come to pick them up. But because I told them that we will walk the one kilometre to home! But then, time had to be passed, esp with my custom made countdown timer refusing to move any faster!

But my kids are tough negotiators, I soon realized.

Two ice creams each and I carry their school bags, they offered, in lieu of walking back to home. Ah, well, soon I was just about as overloaded as Shri Govinda Ji in Coolie Number 1!

But there was one big difference. Whereas he carried empty pieces of luggage in the movie, here I was, carrying what seemed like a tonne of load over my shoulders!

Somehow, we reached home. And after a quick glass of cold water and some lunch, I checked the timer yet again!

4hours and 50 minutes of penance pending, it said.

Yesss!, I exclaimed!

The forced वनवास was about to end!

In order to make it end faster, I promptly went to take a nap, even if a bit late in the afternoon!

And then I woke up! Two hours and forty seven minutes remaining, it said.

DAMN, I said!

Damn… Damn… damn… came an echo.

It took me a moment to realize that the echo was actually the Missus crying out to no one in particular when she realized that the maid isn’t coming!

So I spent the next 45 minutes ‘gainfully employed’, washing dishes! I still like to believe I actually ‘volunteered’ to do that, instead of she ‘requesting’ me to!

But thankfully, the clock ticked on and soon it was a mere 15 minutes before I was deemed reformed by the good folks of Twitter. Those were perhaps the longest 15 minutes of my life in recent past!

As the timer ticked and tocked down to ZERO, I said a silent prayer & logged in.

VOILA!

I was back!

The first thing I did was a say a silent thanks to all those who had outraged for me that day. And then I quickly posted the #ObituaryOfTheDay tweets for that day, lest I get locked out yet again!

And then I re-tweeted that offending thread since it had been broken due to that tweet getting deleted. Of course, this time I took care NOT to tweet that tweet again, but then, it was no longer needed since that Paki didn’t return!

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So folks, a thread I tweeted last night got my acct temporarily restricted by the good folks at Twitter.
Since that thread is now broken, I'll tweet it again.
Here are some thoughts on recent spate of statements & counter statements on the Paki F16 shot down by WgCdr Abhinandan

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) April 11, 2019

Thus ended the story of my day in penance. As regards the word ‘Paki’, I’ll just leave this news report here without any further comment!

Bartania: A Paki calls another Paki, a Paki & the Paki complains to the Police for being called a Paki by a fellow Paki!

Try and make some, or ANY, sense of it if you can!

Cheers!

 

(This chain of thoughts was tweeted late on the night of 01 August 2022)

Folks, sharing some thoughts regarding the proposed visit of Nancy Pelosi Ji to Taiwan.

Let’s see how it goes!

Firstly, a bit of history.

The ‘Renegade Province’ of Taiwan actually came into existence as a consequence of the bitter war for domination of China between the Communists led by Mao Zedong and the Nationalists led by Chiang Kai Shek. During the entirety of World War II, it was the Nationalists that fought and fought the Japanese, while Mao conserved his strength by offering only very minor engagements in order to keep the pretense of fighting the invaders.

Naturally, by the time the Japanese were defeated, the Nationalists too were quite weakened. Consequently, it was just a matter of time before Mao was able to rout them and establish full control over mainland China. Chiang Kai Shek had to flee via sea to the island of Formosa.

Thus came about the People’s Republic of China in the mainland, while the Republic of China was established in Formosa, now more popularly known as Taiwan.

Btw, it might be VERY interesting to note that USA was majorly tilted towards Mao in his ‘struggle’ against Chiang in the years immediately before the establishment of the PRC!

But then, who are we to question ‘history’, right?

Especially when the same USA practically forced Taiwan to give up its permanent UNSC seat & Veto to the same Mao!

Anyhow, coming over to the current day and age, it is fairly common knowledge that the People’s Republic of China rapidly transforms into the PARANOID Republic of China if someone even so much as has a dream that Taiwan is an independent country!

So one really wonders what was Nancy Ji thinking when she decided to go to Taiwan!

I’m sure she is quite a seasoned politician to know how China would react and predictably so, China has not disappointed one bit, what with their loud chest thumping and shrill warnings!

Or might it be that she misread the possible Chinese reactions?

Well, time will tell, including whether or not she actually makes good on her pre-announced plans to land in Taipei.

Since that bit about ‘Will She or Wont She?’ is still a few hours away, let me spend some time on what is at stake for both, the US and China.

Cold as this statement might sound, but IMO Taiwan is mere collateral damage, akin to the proverbial grass that gets trampled when elephants wrestle.

Getting back to the issue of the announcement of Pelosi to visit Taiwan, as well as the timing, it makes for a very interesting set of observations.

I’ll not go into what motivated this plan in the first place though because frankly, I am not a mind reader!

Instead, I will try & put into context the current realities in the midst of which this latest issue has flared up.

Firstly, current US Govt is not very popular domestically at the moment IMO, what with the economy headed into recession (despite how wikipedia defines Recession!)

Secondly, with the latest ‘expose’ of a much exposed Shri Hunter Biden Ji (which has practically vanished from social media, btw. Kudos to the ‘ecosystems’!) and Papa Biden getting COVID at about the same time, and then once AGAIN when the Taiwan visit issue flared up, things in Washington DC are definitely not very rosy.

And all this as the country heads out for a major election this November which many say is as good as lost for the ruling party!

Understandably, a govt that is already being perceived as weak or even sold out to China (thanks to the allegations of POTUS’ son being on the payroll of Chinese companies / his companies being paid ridiculous amounts of money by Chinese businesses), may not want to be seen as backing down in the face of Chinese pressures and threats.

Hence, the reports and visuals of all that American military hardware – ships, fighters, refuellers and all that – amassing in the region. Almost as if daring China to try and stop the visit!

So .. will China be the ‘Bigger Man’ and permit Nancy Ji to carry on with the visit?

Well .. I think we all know the answer to this question, right?

Xi Jinping has his own compulsions at NOT being seen as weak .. not at this point in his history.

Mind you, I say ‘his history‘ and not his country’s history because Xi Jinping too is well on his way to ensure that his legacy lasts long indeed!

In fact this is the very reason why he chose to anoint himself as ‘Chairman for Life’ aka Mao himself, by discarding the two term limit put in place by Deng Xiaoping. He has his own plans for China, you see!

These plans definitely do NOT include permitting Pelosi to visit Taiwan!

To top it up, the Chinese economy itself is not doing very well and then there is the ‘minor’ issue of the next People’s Congress coming up for Xi Jinping which though already fixed, still needs to be conducted the way he desires!

Consequently, all those visuals of Chinese military hardware heading out towards possible launchpads for the much threatened invasion of Taiwan, and the bombastic statements by govt and quasi govt mouthpieces in China ‘urging’ US not to go ahead with the visit!

Basically, both countries have painted themselves in a corner with no more scope for a diplomatic, or in other words a ‘FACE SAVING’ way out.

(Unless of course there is a major political event back home that demands Pelosi Ji return home post haste!)

All in all, diplomacy has truly and utterly failed. What will decide the issue is the perceived muscle power of the two belligerents now.

Sadly, it has become a zero-sum game due to the extreme positions taken up by both the sides with no scope of a negotiated climbdown!

I would sum up the above statement with the help of this visual for those who didn’t understand it.

You are welcome!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I describe this photograph as: ‘Chal dekhte hain kiski jaan jayegi .. Usne meri aur Maine Uski Kasam Khayi Hai!’

What I’m saying is that even if one side decides to take a pragmatic step and decide to cool things down on their part, they will find it politically impossible to sell to their domestic audiences. Events of past few days have put paid to any possibility of any pragmatic solution.

So the big question is ‘What Happens Next?’

I’ll try and make some sense of it based on my understanding of things.

Disclaimer: Based on MY understanding of things! Feel free to disagree!

Firstly, the trigger for what happens or for that matter, does not happen next is in the hands of the Americans. China have made their very rigid stand very clear. It is now up to Nancy Pelosi to either show up in Taiwan or not!

This is what I wrote in a DM group some days back:

And then a day later came this tweet by the lady in question herself, without any mention of Taiwan whatsoever!

Of course, I was patting my back!

And just a couple of hours later, in a totally unrelated news, THIS happened!

In a way, it is also a very convenient excuse for ‘communication void’ in the midst of a very unappetizing situation, but then, that is mere speculation in some corners!

Just about 30 hours later, the latest announcements coming in from the US insisted that ‘No, she is definitely going to Taiwan. Here is her itinerary!’

Looks like they had finally realised that there was no way out now!

All in all, it must have been a sleepless weekend for diplomats in Washington DC & Beijing as well as the military folks rushing towards Taiwan from both these countries!

There still is time to see whether she actually does go to Taiwan or not. I still won’t rule out she NOT going to Taiwan even though chances of that happening don’t seem too bright. Because if there is one country that can ‘explain’ away a climbdown in this situation, it is the US.

Even though it would be a political disaster to now decide to climb down unilaterally esp after the shrill warnings from China, a relatively sympathetic media might still be able to soften the blow on the current US administration.

Yet, there will be some political cost to it.

Which brings me to my original question – Did they not know of how China will react to this plan?

I am still wondering as to what triggered this visit plan in the first place because I somehow cannot get myself to believe that they would be so naïve to NOT anticipate this.

So was it deliberate?

My gut feeling says it is. But to what end, I am still not fully sure. This tweet below does stands to logic, but then would China be willing to pay a price to ‘help’ out the US Govt? Or is it a trap? Like I said before – Sadly, I’m not a mindreader!

Let’s just assume for a moment that hypothetically, Xi does indeed want to help Biden. So what can he do?

The lowest hanging fruits are the islands of Matsu and Kinmen that are practically PRC’s to take should they decide to.

Heck, even as early as the 1950s, Mao had shelled Kinmen Islands in order to register his annoyance at the US!

But then, those were the 1950s & these are the 2020s. China under Xi Jinping truly believes that their time has now come. Would they be willing to settle for just this?

The might of the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF that is being built up with great vigour for the past two decades is ‘potentially’ capable of taking much much more than just these low hanging fruits, no?

You know why I had the word ‘potentially’ in quotes in the paragraph above? Because when time came to show their mettle against a rag-tag militia in South Sudan, the ‘mighty’ PLA were cowering behind the walls of their compound. It was Indians that saved them!

#PLA_Myths
1
Came across this report about an Indian General being appointed as the Force Commander in South Sudan despite PLA trying to place their own guy (Link:https://t.co/zZNAuTmgiq)
Replugging some thoughts I shared some years ago on the PLA peacekeepers in South Sudan. pic.twitter.com/JuqkUnPxHr

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) May 26, 2019

Here’s the Link to the blog post that captures the above thread about PLA Myths. Do read!

People’s Liberation Army – Calling the Bluff

That reminds me, today (or rather yesterday, since it is past midnight now) was the PLA Day as well! A happy coincidence, I’d say!

Coming back to the topic at hand. In case she does land in Taiwan as scheduled, I don’t see any scenario in which force is NOT going to be used by atleast one of the sides.

Like I said before, Taiwan doesn’t really have a say in this matter any more .. UNLESS .. they chicken out and request Pelosi Ji not to visit. In fact, that would be the best case scenario for all concerned and especially for Taiwan!

The USA can sell it by calling it ‘respecting Taiwan’s Wishes’ while China too can declare victory by (rightfully) claiming they scared off the USA!

Taiwan too wins by getting to stay alive!

Jokes apart, as they say, we are all Prisoners of Geography. This is something that just cannot be wished away. Either make peace with it, or continue fighting it forever.

I wrote this not so long ago while talking about the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

Of course, Taiwan too must be seeing the emerging situation keenly. If at all, one lesson that they too must have drawn by now is that they are going to fight all alone.
The USA has already lost in this respect, though not yet overtly.

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) March 1, 2022

(Here’s the link to the blog post that captures the above thread : On the Russia-Ukraine Issue

A LOT of folks were watching, and are watching still.

This is not about Taiwan being a part of PRC or otherwise. No way. This is more about who gets to be the top dog in the years to come. China thinks it is them, while the US disagrees. THIS, folks, is the bottomline!

Once again, another tweet from the Russia – Ukraine thread of some months ago :

Thus, China gains doubly by going towards Taiwan – Reunification as well as Pre-eminence.
Mind you, they may not even need to go kinetic (atleast to the extent Russia has gone). Even mere posturing, if met by a tepid American response might actually convince the Taiwanese to ..

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) March 1, 2022

As mentiond in the tweet quoted above, thanks to the horrific visuals from the initial days of the Ukrainian invasion by Russia, Taiwan might actually voluntarily give in to Chinese demands in order to avoid destruction. Call it a flight of fancy on my part, but I still cannot discard this possibility!

Of course, the Taiwanese themselves must already have calculated the risks of a kinetic engagement with China that goes beyond mere airspace and maritime boundary violations!

Of course, they must be furiously taking notes. Just as they did after the First Gulf War and launched their military modernisation programme!
That modernisation, btw, is nearing completion.
Now put into context this warning by the Taiwanese President BEFORE the Russian Attack! pic.twitter.com/AGdgh8rCIw

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) March 1, 2022

Btw, here’s a quick question – Name ONE war that the USA has decisively won ever since the end of the second world war and left with its aims achieved.

Try.

Saying Panama or Grenada would be an insult to the military might of the USA, I’d say. So try harder!

And if Chinese and American militaries start having a go at each other over Taiwan, guess who else will be forced to jump into the fray?

Ans: Japan!

Not just because American bases in Japanese territory may come under attack, but because the Senkaku Islands and Okinawa itself are hardly one step ahead for the PLAN once they gain control of Taiwan!

All in all, the world is rapidly heading towards another major, and dare I say, inevitable clash of civilizations. On that note, I’ll just leave this eight year old tweet here:

The more you see the world today, the more it seems that Huntington was right after all!#JustSaying

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) March 30, 2014

Moving on from an eight year old tweet, I’ll also share a more recent tweet from five months ago: 

The world as we know it, folks, has changed for good.
This is just the beginning. Much much more is to follow, fairly soon.
All we can do now is to brace ourselves. We all are already witnesses to history in making.
Mark this tweet.https://t.co/hmPTskkfe2

— Harpreet (@CestMoiz) March 1, 2022

What this ‘Manthan’ throws out in the end remains to be seen.

We may be well advised to remember that the oldest Manthan that Indian epics talk about, churned out ‘Vish’ before ‘Amrit’ came by.

At that time there was the Neelkanth to take care of it.

Who fulfills that role this time, remains to be seen.

So what role does India play in this?

Well, I’d say the role of a passive spectator suits us the best!

Just as the US did with us in the past!

On a more serious note, a fight in Taiwan Straits, if it comes, is not our fight. Even a notionally victorious China will definitely be a threat in future. But given our current capabilities, I’d say we need to sit this one out if they come to blows.

Feel free to disagree!

On that note, I’ll start to wind up this thread. In the context of the mention of Japan some tweets above, I’ll share this here:

They all know that the waters around them are heating up and they for sure don’t want to get boiled like that proverbial frog!

All I’ll say is that the first shots in the upcoming war wherein China seeks to assert its supremacy and USA seeks to retain theirs, have already been fired by the way of Pelosi’s visit plans. What remains to be seen is whether further shots come by in the form of shot and shell.

I’ve said all that I could, especially at this late hour in my part of the world and an early office tomorrow!

All we can do is to wait now and see whether she lands in Taiwan or not, and if she does, how far is China willing to go to make good their threats.

Hope this longish blog post made atleast some sense to you. Will do another thread in case the situation so demands.

Cheers!

:fin: