(The content of this blog were tweeted as on 03 – 04 Aug 2019. Any events from 5th Aug onwards will be talked about in subsequent blog posts!)
Ok folks, since everyone is talking / speculating about what is happening in Kashmir, let me add my own thoughts and speculations to the mix!
Firstly, let us be very clear, we didn’t reach the current situation in the past week, or month, or the past year. Far from it. The genesis of the Indo-Pak Kashmir imbroglio lies in the breach of the standstill agreement by the Dominion of Pakistan way back in 1947. Kashmir was doomed from the moment Paki army sent in its non-uniformed foot soldiers into the state and after a few initial, dispersed skirmishes, captured & raped Muzaffarabad on 22 Oct 1947, followed by the capture & rape of Baramula a few days later.
Maharaja of Kashmir soon acceded to India to ward off the looming threat to Srinagar at hands of those bandicoots mustered and sent in to do the dirty work on behalf of the Khakis, who were virtually running the Paki Foreign policy even in that nascent stage of Pakistan’s life.
Btw, even the Sheikh Abdullah led NC endorsed the entry of the Indian Army in the fray.
The First Kashmir War was on!
I tweeted the chronology of the war some years ago. Here’s the first of the approx 7500 tweets, for those interested – LINK
The line that came to be known as the LoC was more or less drawn by the time the war ended. Pakis tried it again in 1965 – sending in ‘freedom fighters’ to instigate a war of ‘independence’. Too bad the ordinary Kashmiris refused to buy this premise!
(LINK to above tweet for those interested)
Fast forward to 1989, and with the Paki Faujis on a high, having ‘defeated’ a superpower in Afghanistan, channelized the ‘expertise’ they had gained, into Kashmir. The Kashmir ‘insurgency’ was on, and with it, the genocide of Kashmiri Pandits.
(Pandits Leave Kashmir Within 2 Days – Alsafa, Apr 14, 1990)
But the Indian Army once again got its act together and soon was dispatching the ‘liberators’ by their dozens. By the time the 90s’ decade was coming to a close, the Paki fauj’s dreams of ‘liberating’ Kashmir was well and truly shattered.
And then came the nuke tests, and with those, a renewed ‘confidence’ and a Paki Army Chief who fancied himself as a true ‘Ghazi’. Kargil and thereabouts went up in flames once again. Talking of Musharraf, I’ll just leave a screenshot of THIS tweet here!
Bottomline – Pakis, more specifically the Brown Panted ones, have been having wet dreams about ‘liberating’ Kashmir since long.
They’ve tried every trick in their books, and failed each and every time.
However, what has encouraged them to keep going at it, has been a pragmatic India. Pragmatism has worked well for India. And it shows, in the trajectories the two countries have taken lately – India about to land on the moon, and Pakistan .. well .. no words need be said about them.
The game has been predictable thus far – Pakis throwing what they think is a googly, and India sending it out of the stadium.
So what has changed this time round?
Well .. what has changed is a political setup in Delhi that is not quite .. err .. ‘amused’ by Paki shenanigans. The first example of this was given far away from the LoC when the first major, and publicised cross border strike took place in Myanmar.
Now Pakis being Pakis, they knew they had a दाढ़ी में तिनका! This tweet exemplifies the unease they felt deeeeeeeep within!
Of course, soon after the Uri attack happened, the ‘unease’ grew more, though hidden behind false bravado typical of the Paki gentry!
Of course, they had no answer but to block simple folks on this side of the border when the Indian Army came calling in the aftermath!
Let us now fast forward to what is happening today. I’d say that the events leading up to today commenced from the Pulwama / Balakot episode. The IAF coming calling on the JeM fuckers deep inside Pakistan came as a rude shock!
Of course, all that ‘brave talk’ meant that Pakis couldn’t just back off!
India had to be ‘taught a lesson’.
And that lesson happened soon enough, the very next day. Only that it didn’t go as planned!
The ‘invincible’ JF-17s stayed far away, at a safe distance while the eight F-16s took a blind shot at the two IAF Su-30s. They fired a grand total of FIVE AMRAAMs at max range.
And then they turned tail!
They knew the Sukhois were not to be messed with.
Needless to say, all that they achieved was 5 AMRAAMs wasted!
Little did they know that Wing Commander Abhinandan in his MiG 21 was about to shove an R-73 up the backside of their leader’s F-16!
Well, atleast they won the Propagandu Warfare in the days that followed!
Will come to that in a while.
Then came the general elections in India, and the return of the govt with an even greater majority. Which brings me to the events currently underway in the Valley.
I’d say it began with the news of deployment of about 10,000 additional CAPF troopers into the Valley.
Let me repeat that figure once again – TEN THOUSAND.
You know the significance of this figure?
Let me tell you how significant it is – NONE WHATSOEVER!
You know why I say so?
Because if we believe the Paki and Hurriyat Propagandus, India already has 700,000 troops in Kashmir! What difference will a mere 10,000 more make is a question no one thought of asking – Heck, it is a mere 1.4% accretion!
Let us analyze what is happening today.
Oh, wait, NO ONE KNOWS what is happening!
THAT is the beauty of today’s situation. What is the govt’s intention, no one knows. And this is what is causing all the randi-rona all over – ppl simply assuming the ‘worst’ (atleast for them)!
To them, all I’ll do is ask, ‘How’s the Khauf?’!!
That is the beauty of psy ops – keep ’em guessing! Capabilities cannot be hidden, but intentions can be. That is exactly what the GOI is doing. And Pakis don’t know how to react, or what to tell their lackeys in the Valley!
So what happens next?
Well, who knows?!!
So let me add my own speculations to the list!
But before moving to speculating about future developments, let me just go over some things that have transpired in the recent past. The most important, and major event was the visit by the Beggar-in-Chief and the de-facto brown panted ruler of Pakistan to the US.
The biggest event of the ‘highly successful’ visit was the US President telling the Beggar-in-Chief in his face that they were ungrateful bastards – taking American money and then actively working against American interests!
But the airwaves were seized by another ‘offer’!
It was the offer by Shri Donald Ji to mediate on the Kashmir Issue ‘IF BOTH COUNTRIES ASKED FOR IT’.
Well, who cares about the fine print in the Land of the Pure, hainji? Out came the dhols and with that, the bhangra troupes! ‘WE WON, WE WON!‘, were the chants all around!
But no one seemed to ask, ‘Oye BC, what exactly did we win?’!
Well, Boo Fcuking Hoo, birathers – There never was, and never will be any Indian acquiescence to any offer of third party mediation. That has been the party line in India since long.
But then why did the POTUS make this offer?
As per him, he & Modi had discussed Kashmir in one of their recent discussions. Indian MEA was very clear that no mediation thing was discussed. Well, Trump Ji may be excused for missing that out since he is a very busy man indeed!
But it may be fair to assume that Kashmir might indeed have been discussed. So, coming back to the POTUS’ offer of mediation – let me just put out a conspiracy theory – What if some years down the line, it turns out to be a trap, even if unintended?
Let me elaborate upon that a bit. With yet another IMF loan in bag (even if the bag itself is so full of leaking holes!) and the POTUS himself offering to ‘mediate’, just imagine the warm wetness that the brown panted ones in Rawalpindi must be feeling in their favourite spot!
Time & circumstances must’ve been considered ripe for yet another incident to ‘rock the boat’ in Kashmir, so to say. But, what form might that take, they wondered. Especially since another retaliatory strike on Balakot was out of question, because .. well .. ye to ho chuka hai!
Oh, my bad, the Balakot strike wan’t a retaliatory one, but a ‘Pre-Emptive’ one, satisfying yours truly who had dreamed about such a strike many many moons ago, on 25 Oct 2015!
Don’t believe me?
Well, HERE’S the tweet and down below is a screenshot of it!
So, this time too, the Brown Pants were deliberating upon what should they do, and what might India do in return, when India did something pre-emptive yet again! Additional troops were moved into the Valley in anticipation of an imminent threat!
And just like that, the Brown Pants became a tad bit more browner!
Had their plans already been leaked?
Heck, did they even have a plan ready?
What was the GOI planning?
What should we do?
How would the US react?
But most importantly, if some attack happens now, Indian already has a justification to whoop their a$$es once again! Heck, going by the Balakot doctrine, India may not even wait for an attack to materialize before going pre-emptive yet again!
Heck, they had no clue whatsoever! And dare I say, they still don’t!
In fact, no one does!
Then, right on cue, the LoC lit up once again, and this time, for a change, the Neelam Valley too got a taste of the ‘good old 90s’!
The Propagandu-in-Chief and his keyboard warriors had their work cut out – how to spin this to their advantage. But then, no matter how much lipstick you put on a pig, at the end of the day it remains just that – a pig!
And given their reputation, or more specifically, lack of it, no amount of propagandu from the much vaunted ISPR is getting any traction anywhere in the world!
Except within the Land of the Pure itself!
Fanboys and Fangirls are swooning over the Propagandu-in-Chief himself, egging him on – Bhai Ghafoora Aage Badho, Hum Tumhare Saath Hain! But Ghafoora jayega kahan? He has no clue what his arch enemy is upto!
And in any case, he’s been too busy retweeting ‘Hai Hai Modi’ tweets from Indian ‘seculars’ from his personal handle, to be able to devote much ‘energies’ to much else!
So the Brown Pants did what they could, to find out Indian intentions, because .. well .. they have no clue!
In came the willing and unsuspecting draftees to the cause – some definitely on their payroll, and others by just being the argumentative Indian!
Politicos were soon yelling bloody murder, not knowing who had died!
All they got were videos of the Indian Home Minister smiling and talking in recent Parliament Session doing rounds on WhatsApp!
Then came, amongst so many others, the star journo herself, the best of the lot, asking the same question, demanding info .. nay .. communication!
That she has been accused in the past for allegedly unwittingly leaking operational information to the enemy during Kargil & 26/11, did not matter one bit. GOI owes it to the public to pre-announce what it is gearing up to do, even at the cost of jeopardizing its plans, right?
Anyhow, that too failed. The silence from the GOI has been deafening indeed! So the Propagandu-in-Chief played the next best and perhaps his most ‘intelligent’ move so far – he tweeted this tweet from Shri Geelani’s handle!
My first reaction upon seeing this tweet was – WOAH, SUCH IMPECCABLE ENGLISH!! No wonder Geelani Saheb is so respected all around!
Too bad, I’ve never come across any video of him actually conversing in this language, though!
But then I suddenly remembered another thing – An Afghan Taliban Spokesman tweeting some shit, supposedly from within Afghanistan, but with location showing Sindh, Pakistan instead!
But then, Pakis have never harboured Afghan Taliban on their soil! No Sir! Even Donald Ji was wrong on that account when he openly said so to the Beggar-in-Chief himself! Of course, the Taliban joker yelled – CONSPIRACY, and deleted the tweet! Here’s a Paki news report LINK to that story.
But Propagandu-in-Chief and his department had learnt their lessons well! Geelani Saheb’s 135 odd tweets, in Urdu and his signature style of impeccable English, are all without any geo-location tags!
Well done, he said as he patted himself!
Yet Geelani Ji’s tweet failed to mobilize the Ummah against Indian plans for the ‘Biggest Genocide in History of Mankind’. It too turned out to be a damp squib. Brown Pants were relieved – they didn’t want their record of East Pak genocide broken! (Hint: Google Op Searchlight)
Talk about small mercies, eh? 😅
But then, WHAT is India up to?
That question still remains, as does the question as to WHEN will it be done!
Let me speculate on the second question first.
Remember, the 1998 nuclear tests were pended till such time the then President returned from a visit abroad? Well this time too, the President was out of country. But good news! He returned back early today morning!
So the question of WHEN has been partially answered by me.
You are welcome!
Now comes the big question – WHAT?
Let me speculate a bit on that now.
Their ‘tool’ measuring contests and bombast notwithstanding, Brown Pants know quite well what the Indian Armed Forces are capable of, given political will. Heck, they are the reason that Pakistan has one extra High Commission – in Dhaka!
In fact, one interesting nugget that I came across when reading this book quoted below is that the author says that he actually saw IAF jets kilometres inside Pakistan over South Punjab in the immediate aftermath of 26/11 Mumbai attacks!
So what happens now? Well, to put it very briefly, I’d say ‘Who Knows!’
But there are indeed a few options that I can foresee.
Firstly, abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A.
Secondly, high profile arrests of ‘big’ players – both political as well as separatist.
Thirdly, trifurcation of the state. Fourthly, an attack on Pakistan across the LoC itself.
And lastly, nothing! The GOI can just say that the Amarnath pilgrims are back safely and additional forces are moving out! Now wouldn’t THAT be a classical ‘Dhappa’?!!
Let me share a few thoughts on these options.
(I know this blog is getting much longer than I anticipated, but bear with me!)
First: Abrogation of Articles 370/35A.
Well, will do a different blog on that soon.
But I’ll leave a screenshot of this 6yr old tweet here.
Coming to the second scenario – Likely high profile arrests.
But for that, let me take you to the USA of 1932 first. A certain gent who went by the name of Al Capone was imprisoned for 11 years for tax evasion.
Now why I bring Shri Capone in this blog, you asked?
Well, that is because he was a dreaded Mafia Boss who had covered his tracks well, and there was hardly any legally admissible evidence against him for any other charge to stick!
And in he went!
On a not so unrelated note, I will just remind you of the recent investigations into a major bank in J&K, in which many of the big names are facing uncomfortable questions, some of them as guests of the Enforcement Directorate!
Of course, some other ‘key’ players are already behind bars for money laundering, thanks to the NIA! And frantic pleas, by their wives and an assortment of Pakis, both brown-panted and otherwise, have failed to move the ‘heartless’ Indian State!
I’ll just leave it at that.
Now coming on to the other hot issue of Trifurcation of the state.
First, let me put out a map of J&K to offer some perspective.
There are a few very distinct geographical divisions in the State, thanks to natural geography as also current political realities.
The Kashmir Valley, if you see, makes up for a very minuscule part of J&K’s real estate.
Then there is Jammu.
Next come the areas North of ZojiLa Pass – Dras, Kargil and Ladakh.
This more or less sums up India controlled territory.
Further East of Ladakh is the Aksai Chin, under Chinese control since the mid 1950s.
Now, let’s talk about areas of J&K under Paki control. The thin sliver of land that you see from Muzaffarabad to Mirpur is what actually comprises PoK.
Yup, Kashmir is more or less entirely with India.
A big chunk of the J&K State is the Gilgit – Baltistan area. Pakis have tried their damned best to constitutionally detach it from J&K, but then again, their constitution hardly matters when it comes to Indian claim.
Lastly, is the Shaksgam Valley, ceded by Pakis to China as they jumped into the Chinese bed .. err .. camp, in the immediate aftermath of the 1962 Sino-India war. Of course the 1963 agreement between Pakistan and China states that it is a temporary measure, pending a final resolution on Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
Technicalities, eh? 🙂
So that is J&K in legal and cartographic terms. In technical terms, though, and in language that Chinese understand, here’s another 6 yr old tweet!
Ok, back to trifurcation.
Well that applies merely to India administered J&K, atleast for the time being.
I don’t know how many of you have noticed, but whenever there is any news of J&K, it is merely Kashmir that is mentioned.
Hardly anyone talks about Jammu and Ladakh.
Heck, even the Pakis call it as India Occupied Kashmir!
No concerns whatsoever with Jammu / Ladakh!
THIS, folks, is what justifies trifurcation, in a nutshell. Will not get into legalities – constitutional or otherwise, but all I will say is that J&K is actually three different states. To that end, I’ll leave a screenshot of this five year old tweet here.
So, what might trifurcation look like?
Well, different ppl are offering different solutions / scenarios. What I would prefer is Jammu as a different state and Kashmir and Ladakh as Union Territories.
I know some folks may not agree with me, but well, that’s my preference! Kashmir as a UT will help mitigate local political ideologies from messing up the situation to some extent. In case of Ladakh, it is too sparsely populated and may be best administered as a UT.
Btw, something tells me that Pakis too are somewhat assured that trifurcation is what India is looking at.
Why, you asked?
Well because the Propagandu-in-Chief, as far as I know, for the first time has used the term India Occupied J&K instead of the usual crap of IOK! Let me put out a disclaimer – it is mere speculation on my part, but still!
Moving on, next possible outcome is an attack across the LoC itself. Well, partly, it has been happening already for the past few days when out of the blue came a report of massive CAPs by both air forces. Then came the reports of intense artillery exchanges.
It all reached a crescendo till the capstone visuals shared by the Brown Pants’ Propagandu Warriors – Neelum Valley under attack!
Too bad, no sympathies came their way!
So what might a proper attack across the LoC comprise?
Let’s speculate a bit on that.
Options are varied. These could range from tactical realignment to gain local advantages to a spectacular but localized op to capture a strategically valuable piece of real estate across!
It might also mean a continued pounding of Paki positions across the length of the LoC with a two-fold aim – let the average Paki see the body bags of his beloved and invincible Brown Panted soldiers come back home (after all, for how long can they hide casualties on the LoC by saying they died in KPK / Balochistan et al?).
The other outcome is rapid depletion of ammo stocks of Beggaristan. It is a very real possibility. Remember the Pakis desperately crying for ceasing artillery fire exchanges in the aftermath of Pulwama / Balakot?
Of course their ammo stocks won’t run out. They never can. Especially when the Brown Pants have first dibs on whatever little revenue their selected government earns! But yes, Beggaristan will continue to frantically keep looking for fresh bheekh! Suits me, to be frank!
Last option – DHAPPA!
We Do Nothing!
I know it doesn’t seem to sit well with many people. And that includes me too. But it is worth analyzing nonetheless. What do we achieve by just scaling down after a while?
Might we have averted a major attack? Or a major planned law and order situation? We will never know about it until someone in the know of things ultimately writes / talks about it.
So be it.
In any case, the Brown Pants had just returned to their barracks after a prolonged mobilization post the Pulwama / Balakot incident, and I think they are out yet again. Even a precautionary mobilization costs money – something that Beggaristan has in extremely short supply!
In any case, don’t think Pakis will escape unhurt either. Their pain is real enough. However the Brown Panted ones are stoic folks. If they can disown hundreds of their soldiers in Kargil, a mere five more is just small change, no?
And to put icing on the cake, Indian Army will be forced to purchase Paki flags and burn crucial calories to bury their abandoned Brown Panted cannon fodder, just like they did in Kargil (MUST SEE the 3 min video below)! Propagandu Wins!
That is as far as the options go, atleast in my opinion. But knowing the GOI of today, they might be thinking on some other line altogether!
What I found interesting recently is this tweet by the Beggar-in-Chief.
So the UN Resolution is back in circulation!
Let me share some thoughts on that. The resolution has been superseded by the 1972 Simla Agreement wherein both countries have committed to resolving the issue BILATERALLY. This has been a consistent stand of the GOI.
But then, let us grant Pakis their few moments of hubris.
So what does the resolution entail?
Well, it does call for plebiscite, just as Beggar-in-Chief has been crying for.
So how does the plebiscite happen, you asked?
The condition for plebiscite is that ALL PAKI FORCES / NATIONALS WITHDRAW FROM THE TERRITORIAL LIMITS OF J&K STATE!
I would love to see the day when someone from the GOI actually takes Pakis up on that offer and asks them to withdraw! The dance of headless chickens in Islamabad / Rawalpindi will surely be a treat to watch!
Let us suppose that in a hypothetical scenario, Pakis actually do that and withdraw. What comes next?
Well, demography comes next!
With Articles 370 & 35A, however flawed they may be, India has ensured that franchise in its part of J&K rests with original / native inhabitants. But when it comes to PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakis have ensured a steady influx of Punjabis and Pashtoons who have settled there for good.
Heck, as far as Gilgit-Baltistan goes, there is a full fledged genocide of the natives underway, since they are Shias!
Very little news trickles out of there, but there still is some that worms its way into the www. Here’s one such LINK
A good and concise writeup. Chronicles the role of a certain Brigadier Pervez Musharraf in brutally putting down a Shia revolt in 1988.
So the question remains, in case of a plebiscite who gets to vote on the Paki side.
On Indian side too, the franchise of Kashmiri Pandits will matter as well.
Oh, and what about the residents of Shaksgam Valley?!!
Bottomline: Plebiscite is good rhetoric, but unimplementable!
So here’s a ‘Boo Fucking Hoo’ to the Beggar-in-Chief and his wet dreams of a plebiscite, Trump or no Trump! In fact, I am veering round to the belief that Trump’s offer of mediation might not have come as quite the surprise, atleast in some quarters in GOI!
As I go towards concluding this blog post, let me also add another speculation – We are seeing what we are seeing. There is no doubt about that. In fact, everyone is trying to make some sense of that.
BUT Are we seeing what we are NOT seeing?
Read the above question once again.
So what do I mean by that?
Let me just say that even though the Kargil War was fought almost exclusively North of Pir Panjal, a few weeks later, the Paki Navy Chief, of all people, had to resign!
Here’s a link about what the Indian Navy was up to, during Kargil War, in case you are interested – The silent sentinel
Now fast forward to 28 Feb 2019 to the Tri-Services press conference after India successfully ‘convinced’ Terroristan to release Wing Commander Abhinandan. Anyone remember, the Naval Officer out there? Here’s the LINK to the screenshot below of a tweet I posted that day
Now take your minds to a few weeks ago when news came that Indian Navy took a while to detect the lone Paki Navy Agosta Sub, ultimately finding it hidden close to the Makran coast.
Remember that news?
Just google it!
And the Pakis on social media went berserk – With Joy, mind you! Their ‘invincible’ submarine had ‘evaded detection’ for so long, you see! None asked the question as to why it was hiding AWAY from Indian coast, instead of aggressively maneuvering close to it!
This brings me to perhaps the final part of this blog – Paki Twitterati!
It might be fair to assume that though limited in penetration, Twitter in Pakistan is mostly used by the middle / upper classes who are amongst the more educated ones in Pakistan.
Now it is an interesting exercise to see how they blindly lap up all the Propagandu thrust down their throats by Shri Propagandu-in-Chief, no questions asked. It is indeed commendable for the Brown Pants to reach this stage. Of course, a ‘pliant’ school curriculum helps.
Talking about school curriculum, I had done a three part blog series on that two years ago. Here’s the link to Part 1 – State Sponsored Radicalization in Pakistan’s School Curriculum: Part 1 of 3.
Do read all three parts.
If you thought Madrassas were incubators of hate in Pakistan, you will be shocked to see how the state has institutionalized a blinkered world view that its children grow up with.
To some extent, an army forever losing battles can be excused for replacing facts with bombast. But the Brown Pants have taken it a bit too far, I’d say.
The first example came in Kargil in 1999 when there was widespread shock and disbelief at Nawaz Sharif ‘throwing away’ a SPECTACULAR VICTORY by agreeing to a withdrawal after the July 4 meeting with Clinton!
This, when all that he had done was providing a face saving exit for his Brown Panted ones who had been honing their favourite war maneuvre in Kargil – Running away from battle!
And ironically, it was he who paid the price for it!
This time too, when the inevitable thappad comes – doesn’t matter when – the Paki Awam will once again go into shock and disbelief.
I wonder how the Propagandu Department will handle things then!
They survived Balakot and the loss of F-16 because of unashamed lies that their populace gladly lapped up. Let’s see what happens next time round, especially with own side having, hopefully, drawn good lessons from it.
With this, I come to the end of this blog post. Let me once again reiterate, no matter what happens or does not happen, fact remains that the boat has been rocked like never before.
And therein lies a victory of sorts.
Am fully expecting the other side (whether across the border, or within) to soon take a desperate step, resulting in an opening that will give some motion to the wheels of history, with or without blood.
In the end, I’ll leave you with the blog versions of four threads tweeted on Feb 14 (Pulwama Attack) Feb 26 (Balakot), Feb 27 (Abhinandan Captured) and Feb 28 (Abhinandan Released).
These are not even a fraction as long as this current blog post. So plz take some time to read them!
ON THE PULWAMA ATTACK
Thoughts on the Balakot Strike: Part 1
Thoughts on Balakot Strike: Part II – The Pakistani Response
Thoughts on the Balakot Strike: Part III – The Tri-Services Presser in New Delhi
With this, I come to an end of this blog post, folks.
Thank you for your patience.
Whatever comes next, all I’ll say is #AanDeyo!