(This chain of thoughts was first shared on Twitter on 27 Aug 2024)

This tweet landed on my TL some time back. More than the event itself, it was the mention of Bangladesh Army that got me thinking. Sharing a chain of thoughts on that.

First thing I did was to go to the Wikipedia page of Bangladesh Army to confirm a hunch. And true to my expectations, I saw the size of Bangladesh Army to be 160,000 troops!

To put things in context and why I found it amusing, I will just give a comparison with the British and the German Armies, sourced from Wikipedia itself.

British Army = Approx 79,000 Active Duty personnel

German Army = 63,000 personnel

What this means is the Bangladesh has an army that is more than the combined strength of the British and German armies!

While size of an army by itself is not a metric to pass judgments, but what I found really interesting was what Bangladesh Army would do with such large numbers.

Let us see the motto of the Bangladesh Army to see what they want to use those 1,60,000 troops for. The motto says: In War, In Peace, We are everywhere for our Nation.

A very impressive motto, I must say. Kudos to whoever came up with it! But there is one observation I have ..

The thing is, I don’t think Bangladesh Army has ever been in a war!

And Thank God for that!

Because I doubt what they would do in case of a war with India, or for that matter, even with Myanmar, given their tenuous link with Chittagong Hill Tracts via Feni!

On that note, do look up a map of Bangladesh and look for Feni. Then tell me if you see a Chicken’s Neck in Bangladesh too! In fact, let me do that for you!

The ONLY major road junction to reach Chittagong area is via Feni, which is hardly SIX Km from Indian Border!

Make of that whatever you will!

So what exactly, does the 160,000 strong Bangladesh Army seek to do in case of a war?

Or what exactly can it do?

Well, on its own .. ZILCH!

Unless, they plan to play faithful minions to the Chinese in case of a war across the Himalayas!

That would partly explain the yahoos gloating about severing Seven Sisters of NE India from rest of India! In fact, one idiot even got deported to the swimming pool that their country currently is, notwithstanding their claims of their FB getting ‘hacked’!

But then, what are the chances of a Himalayan War and in it, Bangladesh Army faithfully carrying out their Cheeni Master’s orders of marching into the Siliguri Corridor, that too with any reasonable chances of success?

But they can always dream, no? And it gives them an alibi too!

An alibi for what, you asked?

Well, it gives them an alibi of being of ‘use’ to their Nation during peace, since war is a far-fetched dream!

And how do they get to be of use to their Nation in peace, you ask?

Well .. the first coup that they did was in 1975 wherein they even murdered the Father of the Nation, Mujib!

How’s that for ‘serving’ your country in peace, huh?

But that was not all! They continued ‘serving’ their country in peace with coups and even counter-coups in:

1975 (First Coup)

1975 (Second, Counter-Coup)

1975 (Yet another failed Counter-Coup)

1981 1982 (Counter-Coup)

Nice, no?

And yet again, just a few weeks ago came yet another statement by the Bangladesh Army Chief that instead of a coup, the democratically elected Prime Minister had ‘chosen’ to step down and that a new govt would soon take over!

This fellow, Zaman is a bit ‘smarter’ than his predecessors in the Coup Business of Bangladesh Army, you see .. instead of directly becoming the dictator, he chose to plant a near senile 84-year old Nobel Laureate as the fall guy who will take the blame when chaos erupts again!

And chaos is already underway all over again!

The yahoos let lose against the previous govt are now demanding INSTANT results from the new govt headed by the Nobel Laureate!

Surprisingly (not really!), it is the CHIEF who decides to come out in full, imposing military uniform and declares that Aal Eez Well!! The 84 year-old Nobel Laureate probably would have been snoozing at that time when a statement needed to be made, right?

THIS, folks, is what a 1.60 Lac army is good for in a country like Bangladesh: To rule over the hoi-polloi.

If you believe anything else, then I have a white coloured building in Agra to sell to you!

In other times, they are leeches on the limited resources of the country. Period.

And what does an army that needs to rule a country do, especially in case of ‘pious’ countries and ‘pious’ armies of the Indian Sub-Continent such as Pakistan and Bangladesh?

Well, they use rabid, extremist Islamists to give them a fig-leaf of democratic credentials!

Zia and Musharraf did that in Pakistan. Previous Bangladesh Army Coup Chiefs did the same. And now General Waker-uz-Zaman too will do the same, notwithstanding the bumbling Yunus in the forefront!

The Jamaat is already making itself felt in Bangladesh. And now the release of yet another extremist that actually triggered this chain of thoughts!

Make no mistake, the Bangladesh Army has always had its sights set on the ultimate goal – To rule over Bangladesh, and ‘Make Bangladesh Great Again’ (to paraphrase Shri Donald Trump’s slogan!)

But we all know how it ends up for countries where the militaries take charge of government as well!

The primary example is Bhikharistan to our West. Then there is Myanmar and heck, Bangladesh itself till the time it remained under the boots of the previous dictators till 1990!

Coming back to the China angle .. I say it with some conviction that the utopian thought of Bangladeshi tanks and infantry rolling up Siliguri is not just a flight of fancy. I wouldn’t be surprised if it has actually been jointly wargamed between China and Bangladesh.

That said, they are free to dream all the wet dreams they want to. Fact remains that when reality dawns, all that they will have to show for it is wet underwears and nothing else!

But coming back. What triggered this coup in the first place, when things were relatively good for the Bangladesh Army? Well, one hint can be the acrimonious visit of Sheikh Hasina to China not very long ago.

What truly transpired in that visit is anyone’s guess. But what happened after the diplomatic spat in all probability, was that the Chinese gave the order to their faithful minions of Bangladesh Army to pull the rug! Hence the move by Zaman to oust Sheikh Hasina.

I do not put it past the Bangladesh Army to have had alternate and surreptitious channels of communication with their Chinese masters whom they dream of faithfully serving some day, even if at the cost of wet undergarments!

There is reason to why I believe that.

Just look at the inventory of the Bangladesh Army and you will be surprised at the sheer amount of Chinese hardware!

Same for their Air Force and Navy!

Another thing that will bolster my claim is a quick study of high and middle level military exchanges of Bangladesh with China and Pakistan! I am sure the figures will spring up quite a few surprises.

What comes next?

Well, all those rosy stories about Bangladesh becoming an economic ‘miracle’ can be filed away in a safe locker for the next couple of decades atleast. Instead, good folks of the media may start drafting reports about how Bangladesh economy went down the drain!

What we are seeing in Bangladesh today is the return of the erstwhile West Pakistani Occupation Army, but this time in the form of Bangladeshi natives doing the dirty job of repressing and depriving their own people.

What we have seen are merely the opening shots of a long period of gloom and doom in Bangladesh, thanks to its ‘well-meaning’, 1.6 Lac strong army. By letting lose the Ansar Bahini Paramilitary on their very students, Zaman has already shown his intent.

Btw, do notice in the above tweet that the handle quoted there still calls it the Md Yunus Interim Govt. Like I said earlier in this blog post, Md Yunus is merely being set-up to take the blame when things go irretrievably South. Mark this!

As the dust settles (figuratively) in the immediate aftermath of this ‘revolution’ and the flood waters drain out, will come the business of governing this chaotic country and more than that, managing the ambitions of those within the army itself.

Now THAT would be a thing to watch .. how long Zaman manages to hang on to the power from behind the curtains and how fast Bangladesh goes to dogs, literally, because figuratively, it already has!

I shall be eagerly waiting and watching.

Meanwhile, the yahoos are now begging for Indian Visas! 🤣

With this, I conclude this short blog post. Hope this chain of thoughts made some sense.

:Fin:

(This chain of thoughts was tweeted on the morning of 26 Aug 2024)

Last night just as I was about to hit bed, this short thread landed up on my TL.

My first reaction was that this was inevitable!

Sharing some thoughts on this latest development. Let’s see how it goes ..

First and foremost, I will share this video of Dacca University, taken in March 1971, aired by NBC News 10 months later.

THIS is how the endgame of 1971 commenced – with the West Pakistani occupiers killing students and professors .. MUST watch the video and hear the commentary

It seems almost like a Deja Vu all over again, doesn’t it?
Given that the levels of violence for the time being aren’t of similar nature, but students clashing with armed wings of the state is a dire reminded of what happened not very long ago ..

The glamour associated with carrying out a revolution is now over. That high of ousting a government is gone and what is left is the same old country with the same old problems.
Who’d have thought there was so much hard work to do after this anarchy, no?!!

And on top of that, they are now ‘led’ by a Nobel Laureate who is even older than the allegedly senile President of the USA!
Tell me whether you are surprised at the turn of events in Bangladesh from mayhem to well .. MORE mayhem!
I, for one, am not!

In fact, I’d say that the typo wherein this handle inadvertently writes Prawns instead of Pawns is a very ironical one, given the current situation and what is likely to follow in the near future!

To put it very bluntly .. Bangladesh had a relatively stable govt and a relatively good economy, which is something to have been proud of, given the general state of other countries in SAARC. And then they decided to screw it up and take their country back by atleast two decades!

The poor ‘prawns‘ thought they were doing it of their own volition, not realising that they were merely a ‘catch’ being reeled in fast to be savoured by the vultures. But then, who can deny the heady winds of freedom to the ‘oppressed’ ones, no?

Atleast now they are free to get beaten up by their own, brand-new ‘revolutionary’ govt’s agencies! They are well and truly screwed, for the short and medium term atleast.

Even if this even quickly dies down, worse is yet to follow.

So what comes next?

Well, first and foremost, I’d say MORE CHAOS.

And I say it not with glee, or sadness, but as a very neutral observer of things going own within a sovereign country, which will soon be celebrating 53rd year of sovereignty granted to it by India.

Oh, and also the electricity bill that is due for payment to the Adani Group! People say they owe as much as $800Mn to the Adani Group. Also, the GOI has recently empowered them legally to cut-off electricity to Bangladesh in case of default!

Oh, and the erstwhile ‘fastest growing economy in Indian Sub-Continent’ also owes Rs 100Cr to Tripura for electricity supplied by them as well. Sadly, Tripura has already started demanding their legitimate dues!

Btw, before moving ahead, let me also just leave it here that leader of the largest political party in favour currently, Khaleda Zia, herself is nearly 80yrs old!

Of course she is the perfect leader for the ‘new’ country born out of this ‘new’ revolution!

Getting back to the issue of electricity, ever wondered why Adani still hasn’t turned off the switch? Would you say that this is India messaging to Bangladesh to beware of mucking things up more than they already have? Of course their yahoos STILL continue to attack minorities for most absurdest of reasons.

Bottomline is that the delusions of Bangladesh ‘burning’ India up for all their imagined grievance is just not going to happen.

But then, they are most welcome to burn their own country in the process .. which is the ‘natural’ outcome of a ‘grand revolution’ anywhere in the world.

Continued chaos in Bangladesh helps all major actors involved in it.

The only losers are the foot soldiers who are rapidly turning in to cannon fodder. Just like the March 1971 video I shared above in this blog post.

Mind you, I’d say that the currently ongoing chaos suits India as well.

India has been far too benign with her neighbours, thanks to our civilizational ethos.

Even when Khaleda Zia led BNP was ruling Bangladesh, we continued to help them. Maldives is another example. But just look around the neighbourhod and see all that hatred and resistance against India!

The yahoos justify these with the flimsiest of reasons, thanks to continued brainwashing by the usual suspects.

Might this chaos be a trigger for a change of heart amongst them? Or might it be a trigger for a ‘benevolent strictness’ on part of India?

भय बिन होए न प्रीत, right?

I wrote this about 10 years ago in context of Pakistan. It just underscores my point above.

This is the curse of geography, I’d say.

India is far too big a neighour in all respects for the immediate neighbourhood to NOT feel overwhelmed of. Thus, despite the immensely benign nature, there is a natural ‘small neighbour syndrome’.

What they don’t realize is that India is actually driving the economy of entire SAARC (less Pakistan, of course) in most respects. And we know the state of Pakistani economy, that has actively delinked itself from India.

If being benign doesn’t help, then a little bit of ‘tough love’ should be the natural outcome.

I guess, this is what Maldives saw not very long ago. And this is what Bangladesh will be seeing for the next few months as well.

At the end of the day, India’s primary concern is the safety and security of our borders and our own citizenry. Add to that the urging of PM Modi for Bangladesh interim govt to ensure protection of its own religious minorities as well.

Mind you, the way I look at the choice of words from the Indian Prime Minister in the tweet above is both in the form of a request as well as an advice.

Yes, you may read the above statement again.

Plus, it is also about India giving a long rope to Bangladesh.

Now whether they use it to rescue themselves or hang themselves with, is entirely their choice!

What happens next?

Well, first we wait for the monsoons to get over and the floods to recede so that poor ‘revolutionary’ folks can stand on dry ground again, before anything else can move ahead!

These events should NOT be seen in isolation.

The world at large is headed for a major churn. In many ways, we are already seeing the initial stages of it. The amount of chaos all around will only increase over the next few months and possibly, years.

The first major event I am waiting for, is the upcoming Presidential elections in the USA. In the meanwhile, Europe is already merrily burning itself up!

Soon to follow the US Presidential election that will herald more chaos, is the likely elections in Bangladesh. I will NOT be surprised if these get postponed for ‘some’ time.

Also coming up is the 53rd anniversary of liberation of Bangladesh. THIS is what I am personally looking forward to, just to see the yahoos back on the street cursing the very country that gave them their independence from their West Pakistani ‘brethren’!

The same West Pakistani ‘brethren’ who are now gloating at a coup against India in Bangladesh of all places. Of course they are free to believe that it is they who are making things happen and that Pakistan is not another pawn in the big game!

But I am also sure that sizeable sections in Pakistan’s ruling echelons themselves, including the Brown Panted Ones must also be alarmed at some level, lest the same treatment be meted out to them by their own yahoos! Well, that is a thread for another day, perhaps!

So as I wind up this blog post, the one point that I would like to emphasize is that IMO, chaos in Bangladesh for the time being is not bad for us. It gives us time to explore our own options. It keeps Bangladesh itself unhinged, thereby increasing our options.

I would STILL not rule out another refugee crisis on our borders with Bangladesh.

I would STILL not rule out another Mukti Bahini coming into its own, given the current state of Bangladesh.

And I would STILL not rule out a limited military action, if the GOI decides it is needed.

And I would STILL not rule out a Pig’s Neck replacing the Chicken’s Neck!

If the Bangladeshis don’t need Indian ‘help’, they are free to NOT take it. But if they think they will break apart the ‘Seven Sisters’, then all I have to say is that neighbours are not permanent!

If they were, then East Pakistan would still be around!

Of course, the above sounds a bit too jingoistic and best solution is definitely one without use of arms. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t keep our powder dry!

In the end, I will just reiterate what I wrote three years ago.
The world as we know it, is in the midst of a massive churn.
Brace yourselves, folks, for more chaos is on its way .. FAR MORE CHAOS!

Thank you for your patience, folks!
I close this chain of thoughts now.
I will leave this blog post that was tweeted just a few days ago as the revolution in Bangladesh had just ‘succeeded’!
Happy Janmashtami!
:Fin:

(This chain of thoughts was tweeted on 08 Aug 2024)

Sharing some thoughts on the #Bangladesh issue that has flared up over the past few days.

Thoughts are still unstructured, let’s see how this goes ..

I will start by saying that If you STILL cannot hear the drums of war, you must be deaf indeed!

The wheels of history seem to be moving with increasing urgency lately, getting greased with more and more blood. Sad, as it may be, it is just history repeating itself.

The events that have transpired in Bangladesh over the past few days and weeks and months have been reported fairly widely, so I won’t delve on them much. But fact remains that it is just the latest in a series of countries ending up in chaos over the past couple of years.

Just look around anywhere in the world and as an Indian, try to find a country or a region that can boast of being actually peaceful. I tried this small experiment some weeks ago and in the end I realised that India was still one of the best places to call home.

It still is, mind you.

But challenges are rapidly evolving and increasingly reaching our very doorsteps. This is the price to pay as you grow in heft and willingly or even unwillingly, end up with a potential interest of the current ‘great’ powers.

You cannot wish it away. Period.

A peculiar thing about our geography is that India is literally a GIANT State by all benchmarks, but one surrounded by massively outsized neighbours. So the ‘Big Brother Syndrome’ is a natural phenomenon which has been dealt with by India being benign towards them thus far.

The most recent example is that of Maldives.

Ultimately, Geography is Destiny is a very true adage. But then, there come times wherein one needs to actually SHAPE their Destiny, even if it comes by shaping geography.

This is what I tweeted 11 years ago 👇

What we are witnessing slowly and steadily, is a ‘Manthan‘ that is creeping closer and closer. We cannot avoid it anymore. But we will be failing in our Dharma if we do not act in our national interests in the midst of all this chaos that is going on in the world.

What has happened in Bangladesh, has happened. Whoever be the invisible hand behind this – USA, or China, or even Pakistan – they are only doing what they feel is good for their own interests.

Now, I’d say it would be VERY discourteous of us to not act similarly. Of course, we have been doing so in our own way throughout our history, but now that traditional ‘benign’ veneer of India may actually need some reinforcing by other means – covert or overt or both.

Remember, this is how the current world order came into being:

Dare I say, a new world order that is already in the making, too wouldn’t happen without similar sacrifices.

Nothing comes your way on a platter.

You have to earn it. By Blood.

Period.

The most glamorous part of the current event in Bangladesh has been accomplished by hordes who think they are the ones who are making things happen.

What comes next is what will define the future.

It is only the overthrow that has been accomplished so far.

The likely new Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, is 84 years old.

For comparison, Shri Joe Biden of the US of A is ‘merely’ 81!

Yup. Let that sink in a bit.

One can only hope, for the sake of stability, that his health keeps up as he goes about ‘rebuilding’ Bangladesh. Currently, he seems to be the only non-controversial person available who can ‘calm down’ the hordes, if at all.

Of course, he is NOT a politician. Has never been one, notwithstanding the extremely short-lived flirtation with politics in 2007.

Now what happens when a non-political person becomes the head of state, you asked?

Well ..

Of course, all this is assuming that Younus actually has the authority to assert himself, instead of being a puppet.

Atleast Zelensky came to power on a democratic vote.

In case of Yunus, no one even spoke of him as the ‘revolution’ gained steam!

So what next?

Well, the Hindu minority of Bangladesh is paying with its blood for being, well, Hindu .. notwithstanding the ‘Enthusiastic Zeal’ with which they participated in the very revolution that has now turned on them.

Yup.

The MSM may choose to be ostriches and ignore the ‘inconvenient’ truths all that they want. But fact is that being an Ostrich and hiding your head in the sand only leaves your backside gloriously exposed. #JustSaying

The chances of a refugee influx are really high.

While there has always been a migration into India from Bangladesh (Notwithstanding the fact that Bangladesh is 32 ranks above India in the Happiness Index!), it may turn into a deluge now.

In fact, I see this incident of yesterday wherein BSF foiled an infiltration attempt by a large group of Bangladeshis, as a trial run of what might come to be pretty soon.

1971 Deja Vu, anyone?

That event also started with large-scale violence against Bengalis in general and Hindu Population in particular, by the Pakistan Army, leading to a large-scale refugee influx into India which forced military action in Dec 1971.

So, in case of a potential refugee influx can India repeat a similar feat again as many are asking?

Especially, with the precedent of 1971?

Well, of course! And dare I say, existence of precedence is NOT a prerequisite for acting in National interest

But the bigger question is – Is it time yet?

Or, whether it is even warranted at this point in time?

My answer to both is a resounding NO, atleast under the current circumstances when the violence is mostly confined to within Bangladesh and there is no refugee crisis, yet.

But also and importantly, because the heavy monsoons currently underway will not permit large scale military manoeuvres in any case. This was exactly what General Manekshaw had said when he Guaranteed Defeat to Mrs Indira Gandhi when asked to go in just before monsoons in 1971

Further, the other two ‘difficult’ borders with Pakistan and China too need to be taken into account, as does the rapidly deteriorating situation in Myanmar.

‘Exciting’ days, no?

Of course, the rapidly developing humanitarian crisis for the ‘Largest Minority’ in Bangladesh too cannot, and should not, be overlooked.

So what do we do next? Well, I’d say, we weigh our options first, not just in Bangladesh, but in the larger neighbourhood itself.

We must choose our battles. And once chosen, fight them with all our might.

There is always an opportunity, even in adversity.

In fact, folks on this platform are already talking about doing something about the Chicken’s neck. Heck, someone even DM’ed about making it a Pig’s Neck!

Then there was one tweet that I came across, talking about the Chittagong Hill Tracts as well.

Remember, the original plan in 1971, as some say, was to carve out an enclave in then East Pakistan for the Bangladesh govt to establish roots and take back their refugees. That we ended up in Dhaka within 13 days, was testimony to the Brown Panted Rapists who just surrendered!

So yes, it can still be done. On that note, I will also leave this recent tweet here:

But then, the question to be asked is – What Next?
THAT is where the true essence of Statecraft would lie.
Would we be in a position militarily to open up another active border, in addition to Pakistan and China?

Food for thought, no?

One way to obviate that is to be quick, aka 1971, and be done with it once and for all.

It has been done before. And if played well, it can be done again. Possibly, with the Chicken’s Neck turning into a Pig’s Neck as well!

But time for that may not be right now. That said, one can only assume that GOI and its relevant arms are already working actively to shape up the situation in Bangladesh to our own advantage.

Now there are two more events that are fast approaching, and with the recent template of Bangladesh, it only becomes a more exciting wait, especially in case of Pakistan as their own Independence Day approaches.

Chaos will only intensify everywhere.

But to be fair, there will be challenges within as well. In fact, initial utterances to that effect have already been made by quite a few jokers within. So it would be unwise to jump into a situation on or across own borders without securing the internals.

What do we do now?
At the cost of sounding defeatist, I would say – Nothing overt, atleast for the time being.
Sad as the loss of innocent lives & destruction of temples in Bangladesh is, right now may not be the best time to jump into a fire which is still being actively fuelled

This is what I wrote in Oct 2023. There is far worse to come over the next few years as the ‘Manthan’ continues, IMO.

Mind you, we have talked about Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar and China from our neighbourhood.

But one more country that I would be watching out for is Nepal, which too has just had a change of govt and the supposedly Chinese backed guy is back in power!

Just imagine the Chicken’s Neck area squeezed between an actively hostile Bangladesh and a defiant Nepal, with the Chinese in Chumbi Valley / Doklam not very far away.

A sobering thought, no?

Hence the need to watch before we leap.

Events currently underway in our neighourhood in particular and the world in general, will be the history that our grandchildren will be taught in school!

We are living in a time to be able to witness them first-hand as they develop.

One doesn’t know what future holds.
All we can do is wait and watch.
And do our own bit in shaping it favourably by whatever way we are able to!

With that, I think it is time to close this blog post.

As a parting thought, all that I will offer is that India’s borders with Pakistan & Bangladesh are UNNATURAL, and ARTIFICIAL ones. They cannot sustain in the long run. What changes in future, is what remains to be seen.

:FIN: