(This chain of thoughts was tweeted on 08 Aug 2024)
Sharing some thoughts on the #Bangladesh issue that has flared up over the past few days.
Thoughts are still unstructured, let’s see how this goes ..
I will start by saying that If you STILL cannot hear the drums of war, you must be deaf indeed!
The wheels of history seem to be moving with increasing urgency lately, getting greased with more and more blood. Sad, as it may be, it is just history repeating itself.
The events that have transpired in Bangladesh over the past few days and weeks and months have been reported fairly widely, so I won’t delve on them much. But fact remains that it is just the latest in a series of countries ending up in chaos over the past couple of years.
Just look around anywhere in the world and as an Indian, try to find a country or a region that can boast of being actually peaceful. I tried this small experiment some weeks ago and in the end I realised that India was still one of the best places to call home.
It still is, mind you.
But challenges are rapidly evolving and increasingly reaching our very doorsteps. This is the price to pay as you grow in heft and willingly or even unwillingly, end up with a potential interest of the current ‘great’ powers.
You cannot wish it away. Period.
A peculiar thing about our geography is that India is literally a GIANT State by all benchmarks, but one surrounded by massively outsized neighbours. So the ‘Big Brother Syndrome’ is a natural phenomenon which has been dealt with by India being benign towards them thus far.
The most recent example is that of Maldives.
Ultimately, Geography is Destiny is a very true adage. But then, there come times wherein one needs to actually SHAPE their Destiny, even if it comes by shaping geography.
This is what I tweeted 11 years ago 👇
What we are witnessing slowly and steadily, is a ‘Manthan‘ that is creeping closer and closer. We cannot avoid it anymore. But we will be failing in our Dharma if we do not act in our national interests in the midst of all this chaos that is going on in the world.
What has happened in Bangladesh, has happened. Whoever be the invisible hand behind this – USA, or China, or even Pakistan – they are only doing what they feel is good for their own interests.
Now, I’d say it would be VERY discourteous of us to not act similarly. Of course, we have been doing so in our own way throughout our history, but now that traditional ‘benign’ veneer of India may actually need some reinforcing by other means – covert or overt or both.
Remember, this is how the current world order came into being:
Dare I say, a new world order that is already in the making, too wouldn’t happen without similar sacrifices.
Nothing comes your way on a platter.
You have to earn it. By Blood.
Period.
The most glamorous part of the current event in Bangladesh has been accomplished by hordes who think they are the ones who are making things happen.
What comes next is what will define the future.
It is only the overthrow that has been accomplished so far.
The likely new Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, is 84 years old.
For comparison, Shri Joe Biden of the US of A is ‘merely’ 81!
Yup. Let that sink in a bit.
One can only hope, for the sake of stability, that his health keeps up as he goes about ‘rebuilding’ Bangladesh. Currently, he seems to be the only non-controversial person available who can ‘calm down’ the hordes, if at all.
Of course, he is NOT a politician. Has never been one, notwithstanding the extremely short-lived flirtation with politics in 2007.
Now what happens when a non-political person becomes the head of state, you asked?
Well ..
Of course, all this is assuming that Younus actually has the authority to assert himself, instead of being a puppet.
Atleast Zelensky came to power on a democratic vote.
In case of Yunus, no one even spoke of him as the ‘revolution’ gained steam!
So what next?
Well, the Hindu minority of Bangladesh is paying with its blood for being, well, Hindu .. notwithstanding the ‘Enthusiastic Zeal’ with which they participated in the very revolution that has now turned on them.
Yup.
The MSM may choose to be ostriches and ignore the ‘inconvenient’ truths all that they want. But fact is that being an Ostrich and hiding your head in the sand only leaves your backside gloriously exposed. #JustSaying
The chances of a refugee influx are really high.
While there has always been a migration into India from Bangladesh (Notwithstanding the fact that Bangladesh is 32 ranks above India in the Happiness Index!), it may turn into a deluge now.
In fact, I see this incident of yesterday wherein BSF foiled an infiltration attempt by a large group of Bangladeshis, as a trial run of what might come to be pretty soon.
1971 Deja Vu, anyone?
That event also started with large-scale violence against Bengalis in general and Hindu Population in particular, by the Pakistan Army, leading to a large-scale refugee influx into India which forced military action in Dec 1971.
So, in case of a potential refugee influx can India repeat a similar feat again as many are asking?
Especially, with the precedent of 1971?
Well, of course! And dare I say, existence of precedence is NOT a prerequisite for acting in National interest
But the bigger question is – Is it time yet?
Or, whether it is even warranted at this point in time?
My answer to both is a resounding NO, atleast under the current circumstances when the violence is mostly confined to within Bangladesh and there is no refugee crisis, yet.
But also and importantly, because the heavy monsoons currently underway will not permit large scale military manoeuvres in any case. This was exactly what General Manekshaw had said when he Guaranteed Defeat to Mrs Indira Gandhi when asked to go in just before monsoons in 1971
Further, the other two ‘difficult’ borders with Pakistan and China too need to be taken into account, as does the rapidly deteriorating situation in Myanmar.
‘Exciting’ days, no?
Of course, the rapidly developing humanitarian crisis for the ‘Largest Minority’ in Bangladesh too cannot, and should not, be overlooked.
So what do we do next? Well, I’d say, we weigh our options first, not just in Bangladesh, but in the larger neighbourhood itself.
We must choose our battles. And once chosen, fight them with all our might.
There is always an opportunity, even in adversity.
In fact, folks on this platform are already talking about doing something about the Chicken’s neck. Heck, someone even DM’ed about making it a Pig’s Neck!
Then there was one tweet that I came across, talking about the Chittagong Hill Tracts as well.
Remember, the original plan in 1971, as some say, was to carve out an enclave in then East Pakistan for the Bangladesh govt to establish roots and take back their refugees. That we ended up in Dhaka within 13 days, was testimony to the Brown Panted Rapists who just surrendered!
So yes, it can still be done. On that note, I will also leave this recent tweet here:
But then, the question to be asked is – What Next?
THAT is where the true essence of Statecraft would lie.
Would we be in a position militarily to open up another active border, in addition to Pakistan and China?
Food for thought, no?
One way to obviate that is to be quick, aka 1971, and be done with it once and for all.
It has been done before. And if played well, it can be done again. Possibly, with the Chicken’s Neck turning into a Pig’s Neck as well!
But time for that may not be right now. That said, one can only assume that GOI and its relevant arms are already working actively to shape up the situation in Bangladesh to our own advantage.
Now there are two more events that are fast approaching, and with the recent template of Bangladesh, it only becomes a more exciting wait, especially in case of Pakistan as their own Independence Day approaches.
Chaos will only intensify everywhere.
But to be fair, there will be challenges within as well. In fact, initial utterances to that effect have already been made by quite a few jokers within. So it would be unwise to jump into a situation on or across own borders without securing the internals.
What do we do now?
At the cost of sounding defeatist, I would say – Nothing overt, atleast for the time being.
Sad as the loss of innocent lives & destruction of temples in Bangladesh is, right now may not be the best time to jump into a fire which is still being actively fuelled
This is what I wrote in Oct 2023. There is far worse to come over the next few years as the ‘Manthan’ continues, IMO.
Mind you, we have talked about Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar and China from our neighbourhood.
But one more country that I would be watching out for is Nepal, which too has just had a change of govt and the supposedly Chinese backed guy is back in power!
Just imagine the Chicken’s Neck area squeezed between an actively hostile Bangladesh and a defiant Nepal, with the Chinese in Chumbi Valley / Doklam not very far away.
A sobering thought, no?
Hence the need to watch before we leap.
Events currently underway in our neighourhood in particular and the world in general, will be the history that our grandchildren will be taught in school!
We are living in a time to be able to witness them first-hand as they develop.
One doesn’t know what future holds.
All we can do is wait and watch.
And do our own bit in shaping it favourably by whatever way we are able to!
With that, I think it is time to close this blog post.
As a parting thought, all that I will offer is that India’s borders with Pakistan & Bangladesh are UNNATURAL, and ARTIFICIAL ones. They cannot sustain in the long run. What changes in future, is what remains to be seen.
:FIN:
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