A CONSPIRACY THEORY!

Folks, moving on from THIS blog that was posted about two weeks ago, let me share some ‘wild’ conspiracy theories about what I see happening in the coming few months.
Once again, writing on the go, so let’s see how this chain of thoughts goes!

Firstly, let me share with you all what triggered this chain of thoughts.
It was the tweet by Trump that the Chinese would be happy to see him lose the upcoming elections. Here is a screenshot of the tweet : 

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Now this is B.I.G
Here is a sitting President of USA openly insinuating that China is the enemy as far as his re-election bid goes.
Let me just say that such a statement means that he is committed to make China lose in order to win his upcoming re-election bid in about six months. 

Is this a ‘spur of the moment’ tweet? I’d say not. Reason – The politician in him knows that there is widespread anger & disgust against China, thanks to the fiasco that their mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent attempts at ‘managing’ the public perception that actually backfired, thanks to their high-handed attempts. Did a short thread on Twitter about that as well. May have a look HERE, if interested.

So coming back to this blog, what does it mean, going ahead.

A constituency already exists which will endorse anything he does against China. And this cuts across political affiliations amongst the American electorate. What I foresee is a number of events in the coming few months that will, in all probability, make relatively recent US-China Trade War pale in comparison. Yes, this is likely to happen within the next few months, or even in a matter of weeks since timing it to pay dividends during the upcoming election won’t be a bad idea either!

Once again, remember, the US Presidential election is ONLY about six months hence. Another thing that underscores this belief of mine is the relatively speedily moving chain of events / statements from people in the know.

Sharing some screenshots here (For your eyes only!)

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Go through the screenshots in the above thread again.
Fairly routine, no – blaming China and blah blah blah?
Or are they?
Yup, look again!
THIS is the one that caught my eye when it appeared on my TL! 

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Did the US just call for junking the ‘One China Policy’, adherence to which is COMPULSORY if you want the Chinese to ‘oblige’ you by doing business with you?
Well, looks like the US Mission in UN just took the wind out of the sails of the ‘One China Policy’!

This is H.U.G.E

An interesting nugget of info – Till 1971, it was the Republic of China (or Taiwan) that held the permanent UN Seat along with the Veto, which was thereafter given to the Peoples Republic of China after the Nixon-Kissinger led détente with Mao.

But .. coming back to the four screenshots shared above. Here is another one.

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Why this tweet?

Because the phrase “Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down This Wall!” actually spurred the breaking down of the Berlin Wall & subsequent break-up of the USSR.

Talk about signalling, eh?

So, signalling apart, what is it that the USA under Trump can actually do to China?
Well, I’d say there is a lot that can be done.
It can range all the way from tariff increases to throwing out all Chinese companies and businesses from the US!

I understand if you say I am daydreaming outlandish dreams. I won’t fault you for that. Remember, I used the words ‘Conspiracy Theories’ in the very beginning of this blog!

So, back to my flights of fancy!

Remember, America just announced a stimulus package of TWO TRILLION dollars to jump-start its economy. The question is, where does this money come from?

Of course, they can simply print away in their dollar printing presses, no?

OR ..

They can seek reparations from China?
Just like a few other countries are already doing, no?
In fact, they are already in the process of doing so, by the way of lawsuits already filed in US courts or in the process of being filed!

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Do you still think it is mere signalling and hot air?
Think again.
If it were merely so, why would China be spooked like hell?
Why would Shri Hu Xijin, the de-facto social media mouthpiece of the CCP make this ‘not so veiled’ counter-threat?
What does he know that we don’t?

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And more importantly, what does China have to lose in the midst of this all?

Let us see ..

(A) 1.1 TRILLION dollars worth of American debt that they have purchased by the way of American treasury bonds.

(B) (Well, do you need any more examples after the above one?!)

The question now is .. Will He Do It?

My counter question to that is .. WHY WON’T HE?

What does he have to lose, huh, except a second term as the President of the USA?

You do the Math!

There are already talks about removing sovereign immunity of China in US, remember?

Would China react?

Of course they would!

Chairman Xi ‘Winnie The Pooh’ Jinping wouldn’t want to be sent to a re-education camp, would he?

‘coz that is exactly what will happen since he is already mightily weakened within! (If you don’t believe me, start by reading THIS piece)

To top it, his ‘defeat’ in the recent US-China trade war hasn’t done him any favours either!

Now, top that with the COVID-19 and the attendant negative press and you get my drift, right?

Btw, speaking of Xi Jinping, here is what I tweeted some weeks ago! 

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But then, when it comes to a matter of life and death, can China afford NOT to react?
They did react in whatever way they could during the trade war.

But to what end?

Bottomline – They have no counter leverage on the US.

But, what is to say that things will only stay confined to economic realm?
A dying empire of an emperor who has everything to lose will simply HAVE to thrash out, even if in sheer impotence. Here one needs to look at recent happenings in South China Sea as well!

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(HERE is the link to the tweet above, for those interested)

What bolsters my belief is the fact that the US is rapidly reclaiming the space it had to unwillingly cede to China due to its Navy getting laid low on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Heck, USS Nimitz is already on its way to the SCS!

Here’s some more food for thought, btw!

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Btw, Taiwan too is moving in to play the game.

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They’ve waited long enough for the day they achieve their manifest destiny. To them I’d say, time is nigh!
One wouldn’t be surprised to see Taiwan actually end up in the UN at about this time next year!

Bottomline – The China dream is over. Their dreams of playing the big brother to the rest of the world will not fructify. They still have NO idea about how much bad press they have accumulated for themselves in eyes of practically each and every common citizen of the free world.

The hubristic and autocratic CCP have failed spectacularly in failing to recognize that people outside of their control won’t simply roll over and believe whatever propaganda they dish out.

And then, they seek to interfere in democratic elections in the USA of all places!

Coming back to the US elections – do you also see a political masterstroke in Trump’s statement that Joe Biden is China’s preferred candidate?

Do you see what it does to Biden?

Trump has forced Biden to prove that he is NOT doing China’s bidding, atleast till the election day!

All in all, I foresee a repeat of the US-China trade war in the coming few weeks, only this time on steroids.

Chinese industry being chucked out – Check
Lawsuits against China – Check
Chinese assets being seized – Check
Chinese govt personnel being sanctioned – Check

Now add:
USS Nimitz transiting thru the Taiwan Strait – Who knows!
A shooting clash in the SCS – QUITE likely, I’d say
Removal of Xi Jinping by 2022 – Very likely
US recognition of Taiwan – ??

But then, this is all just a conspiracy theory / figment of my imagination, no?!

JMTs

The Post COVID-19 World

Folks, sharing some thoughts about the Post-WuhanVirus world that have been playing in my mind. Will talk about some happenings that are commonly known, without giving many links since that will be a bit too much work at this time.

Thoughts are still random and unstructured. But I hope it’ll make sense eventually.

Here goes ..

Firstly, let there be no doubt that it is a virus that has originated in China. I’ll not debate the veracity of this claim that I make, but I merely echo the general perception of the common man on the ground all across the globe when I say this.

And I stand by my opinion, regardless of what the Chinese propaganda machinery says, with its army of newly minted bots parroting the party line. Did a short thread on it on Twitter some days ago. May have a look – LINK. Will keep adding to it as well, so do keep track.

Even though the world is busy fighting the immediate fight – against the virus itself, let me offer a statement: THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT, HAS CHANGED.

Yes, plz read the above statement once again and ponder over it for a few moments.

Yes, you read it right. The world has already changed. What form this changed world takes, remains to be seen and will be apparent soon, maybe even within the next 6 to 8 months, once the immediate danger of the virus itself has passed.

The new world may find itself doing China’s bidding for all we know, or it may find China on its knees, it may see the West weaken, or even a slow motion break-up of the European Union itself, Middle-East may yet go back to desertification and Japan emerge as a manufacturing hub.

Point is, that it took world shaking events like two devastating world wars with a failed League of Nations in-between and a long and protracted Cold War to arrive at the current world order.

What we are seeing today with the Wuhan Corona Virus is nothing short of that.

In fact it is much more ‘world shaking’ than even the world wars because each and every human being KNOWS he or she is directly threatened by this virus. Chinese propaganda machinery showing all those horrific visuals from early days of lockdown in Wuhan didn’t help much either.

Which brings me to the role of China itself. Be it a lab-manufactured virus, or something that happened naturally, or whatever that guy from the WHO parrots, fact remains that it was first observed in China and it is from there that it has travelled to virtually every corner of the world.

However, with China more or less shut down in months of Jan-March 2020, the world realized one thing – putting all your eggs in a single (manufacturing) basket had a lot of unforeseen repercussions in terms of a virtual stoppage in a lot of critical supply chains. And then, thanks to their early exposure (or a pre-prepared vaccine as some speculate), China was amongst the first few of the majorly affected countries that brought the situation somewhat under control and with much fanfare, restarted her factories.

There was hope, until the Chinese revealed their ultimate weapon – the Middle Kingdom Syndrome.

They went ballistic with their ‘anger’ at the much justifiable backlash at their own mishandling of the issue in the very initial days.

Surprised, anyone?

I for one, am not!

There were reports that the quintessential Godless businessmen that the Chinese are, they were demanding that their crown jewel, Huawei be given the go-ahead for establishing 5G networks in countries such as Britain and France, before they would supply life saving equipment in terms of thermometers, PPEs, masks, gloves etc.  

It was nothing less than a hostage situation, with lives of humans at stake, that China had created.

The ‘barbarians’ had no choice but to kowtow, they thought.

But the hubristic Middle Kingdom was shocked to its core when it realized that not only were the ‘barbarians’ NOT kowtowing to its ruler, but instead they were accusing the Middle Kingdom itself for being .. well .. the Middle Kingdom!

There were reports that countries were not buying into the Middle Kingdom’s demands of giving their strategic 5G networks to Huawei. Britain was mulling officially barring Huawei. France had rejected the aid offer linked with Huawei.

The Middle Kingdom was suddenly in uncharted territory – it was not getting what it was demanding! They unleashed their army of social media warriors under their own Propaganda-in-Chief, Lijian Zhao, who himself had learnt the art of ‘Fifth Generation Warfare’ while in Pakistan not so long ago!

In addition, came a glut of ‘compliant’ articles on much of the world’s more ‘respected’ media houses. Then there were the Chinese diplomats who too did their bit by trying their darnedest best in the freedom of speech in their own host countries, leading at times to unforeseen results, to which I am sure, many heads would have rolled, mostly figuratively, but also atleast some literally, trying to figure out a counter. My personal favourite is THIS one by the Daily Telegraph in Australia. Do read.

Of course the Middle Kingdom had to reply to this ‘insult’ by the ‘barbarians’ and their free press. So they submitted an article in rebuttal. Sadly, the good folks at the Daily Telegraph subjected the letter thru their own version of a Chinese censor and THIS is what came out!

Daily Telegraph Australia

Bottomline: The world beyond their borders and except their one and only ‘true’ friend, Pakistan was simply NOT in a mood to buy their bullshit anymore. They were literally clutching at the straws out here. There was even a tweet by an official Chinese handle quoting a Pakistani ‘expert’ who claimed that the virus didn’t originate in China. Clearly, it wasn’t working. Not very long thereafter, a Danish newspaper published this:

Danish Newspaper China Virus

So the Chinese decided to go on a different tract. There were soon photos of Chinese origin relief material being shipped all over the world. Even Jack Ma, a prized asset of the CCP, posed in front of one such consignment and tweeted about it.

However, almost immediately, commenced reports of Chinese equipment being substandard and unusable at best, and even deliberately wrongly calibrated at worst. There were reports of Chinese factory owners deliberately manufacturing thermometers that gave wrong readings, in order to ensure that the disease spread far and wide in countries that had dared to call off their bluff. I remember this particularly in reference to a bunch of thermometers sold by China to the USA.

A lot of countries raced to recall such equipment – masks, thermometers etc from their populace, in order to prevent further acceleration in the spread of the disease.

As if this was not enough, now came the reports of racial profiling and consequent attacks on African citizens in China, blaming them for the disease. A tonne of such videos went viral.

Bottomline: China has well and truly gone about accumulating a lot of bad karma from everyone, right from governments of the world to the average citizens on the streets.

This is bound to come back to bite them, once the dust settles.

They know it too.

And are rattled.

With good reason.

Because they can already see it starting to happen. There is ever growing talk of moving manufacturing out of China. But this talk this time is different from similar talks a few months earlier. Where earlier, in the early days of the pandemic, people were only concerned with creating redundancies in case of a similar disruption in future, this time they are pursuing it with far more vigour due to pure disgust with the way China has mishandled the entire thing.

On that note, I’ll just leave this tweet here to underline what I mean.

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In their hubris of appearing squeaky clean, the Chinese have only damaged themselves more.

The repercussions are already manifesting slowly. Japan has announced monetary incentive for its companies to relocate from China. Other countries too, are already doing the same.

Not just content with moving their businesses out, there are countries who are already seeing calls to re-evaluate their very relationship with China once the immediate danger has passed. How these things pan out in future will be an interesting thing to watch.

Here is what I foresee.

China WILL lash out before letting any such thing happen.

We have already seen them try to take advantage of this situation economically, as well as geopolitically because right now they are in a relatively better position than the rest of the world.

On the economic front, they are out to make a killing in terms of prices of APIs that are immensely critical in pharma manufacturing, to outrightly going and buying major stakes in companies all over the world.

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On the strategic front, their activities in the South China Sea have increased manifold, including the sinking of a Vietnamese boat a few weeks ago. This particular event might have been triggered by the knowledge that the US naval presence too was stressed by the virus outbreak.

But .. and this is a big question .. what happens when the rest of the world gets its act together?

A LOT of manufacturing will have moved out, including that of the APIs on which China had created a virtual monopoly. Chinese investment is already being subjected to immense scrutiny and in some cases, a blanket rejection in order to prevent predatory takeovers of key industries by many countries.

Jumping a few months ahead, it is safe to say that the Chinese economy will be amongst the MOST affected ones, globally, with immense contraction coming their way. Remember, this pandemic will only accelerate the process already put into motion by the recent US-China trade war.

On the strategic front, once the world recovers, it will make good efforts to recover the ground it has had to cede to the Middle Kingdom. It may not be a far fetched theory if one says this time round there might actually be a shooting war, even if localized, in the South China Sea, esp once the US Navy moves back in. Heck, things are already being put into motion even as I type this.

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Now just imagine in case Shri Donald Trump wins the upcoming election in the US, what might be prioritize, esp after publicly calling out China as the origin of the virus and about their predatory moves in the midst of the pandemic.

Let me add that his chances of a victory seem even greater now even if for one single reason that his opponent is not getting even 1% of the airtime that he is getting as he leads his country in the fight against the pandemic. Feel free to disagree on this, but I stand by it.

Then there is the Middle East. Given that they and OPEC were already stressed financially due to Russia, I for one would NOT want to be in their shoes at this point in time, given the way oil prices are crashing! The welfare states that they created will soon come crumbling down. Call it Karma for all the evils that the export of toxic ideology from their lands brought to the world, but what was in any case being foreseen as their future about two decades hence, seems to have been advanced by atleast a decade, if not more.

As regards Russia, I’ll say that in the long run they will see off this pandemic relatively better than many, in terms of economics as well as strategically, esp when the realignment of geopolitical and geo-economic alliances takes place. Mark my words.

Coming on to the EU, it was an artificial construct in the first place (my personal opinion. Feel free to disagree) and was already in some stress. What this pandemic has done is to stress it further, coming as it does, bang in the middle of Brexit! Who would have imagined even a few weeks ago that the famed free borders of EU would still NOT stop countries from seizing relief material / medical supplies meant for fellow EU countries, for use by themselves? But it happened! Germany did it. As did Turkey, for that matter (LINK).

The EU will see internal differences get magnified in the medium term. Whether or not it survives in its current form is anyone’s guess, but I personally feel it will change demonstrably.

Now about India.

I see this pandemic and its aftermath as an opportunity which, if exploited tactfully, will help improve her geopolitical standing as well as economy. As it is, India is stated to be perhaps the ONLY major world economy which will post a positive GDP growth for this financial year, even if it is less than 1.5 percent. Remember, this, when China and the US will CONTRACT by more than 5% each.

Dare I say, with a LOT of manufacturing due to move out of China, if played right, India will gain much more of this than South-East Asia. Let’s wait and watch how it goes.

But what I am more interested in seeing is how the geopolitical environment changes in India’s case.

The biggest factor in this, IMO, is a China that is not only majorly weakened economically / geopolitically, but also facing AWAY from India, as it grapples with the US and rest of the Western world.

With Chinese economy contracting and thereafter growing slower than what has been the norm, it WILL mellow them down across the Himalayan borders, atleast in the short term.

This is partly due to the increased focus of West on China, as also due to the fact that India has so far played a very benign role as compared to the rest of the world when it comes to calling out China for its role in creating this entire mess.

Call it a masterstroke, or call it naivete on part of India, but fact remains that China doesn’t have much to complain about as far as the Govt of India goes. Heck, the GOI even ordered PPEs and other such equipment from China. That a bulk of it was found to be faulty did not come as a surprise. But even if unintended, it further weakens China’s case against castigating India!

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Coming on to the other end of our borders, to Pakistan, well no one knows how they are coping, except the celebrations that are currently underway at getting a six odd month or so worth of waiver at repaying their loans as well as some fresh loans to ‘fight’ the pandemic.

Pakistan went from begging India for help (remember the Shahid Afridi / Shoaib Akhtar episodes?) to showing their true colours when they realized that no free monies from India were going to come their way.

After waiting for a few days to see if a few crumbs get thrown their way, the Pakistani President and the Prime Minister came back to their usual rants about Kashmir and Modi and India.

Then there is the Pakistan Army – fighting the pandemic in their own way – by sending in more terrorists our way from across the LoC. Not just that, in ‘anticipation’ of the upcoming FATF review in June, they have even taken off nearly 50% of the names from their own terror watch list!(LINK)

Talk about making hay when the world isn’t watching!

However, the situation out there needs to be monitored in great detail, because they themselves have no idea as to what their own state of exposure to the virus is. One can imagine the social unrest that comes their way in case the virus indeed goes viral out there.

And given the way that the Govt of Pakistan is (NOT) dealing with it, there is a very good chance of this actually happening. What happens there in case it does happen?

Well, one thing that surely comes to mind is a full blown refugee crisis on our borders.

In fact, this is something that I feel even the Brown Panted Ones in Rawalpindi must be gaming, if not done already.

Now the question is, how does someone deal with such a situation? We’ve already seen a sample at the Greek-Turkey border recently (Once again, EU Unity, anyone?)

In our case, however, we will most definitely have the usual suspects crying themselves hoarse over the ‘inhuman’ Govt of India and give it a communal colour, in case such ‘refugees’ are stopped at our borders.

So what is the answer then?

Do we create refugee camps ACROSS their borders?

Food for thought, no?

I’ll not delve much on that for the time being, though.

What I am looking at, is the fact that a weak China and a Pakistan virtually on the brink of default with a Saudi Arabia / UAE etc UNABLE to park free and surplus dollars into their banks to ‘shore’ their finances. Top it up with drastically reduced remittance from their workforce in the middle east as they themselves stare at empty coffers and you will get my drift.

Then their is their ‘all weather’ ally, China, who is itself going to be ‘under the weather’ for a long time, and the situation isn’t exactly worth the celebrations that they are having at the mere deference of loan repayments.

A Pakistan in this state is vulnerable as well as dangerous. Herein lies a challenge as well as an opportunity for India. Once again, I’ll leave the rest to your imagination, without delving much into it at this moment.

What I am getting at is that once the immediate danger is past, India will see a lot of (relatively) weakened states in near and far neighbourhood – right from China to Saudi Arabia. It is going to be a tricky tightrope that we will need to walk in order to maximize gains and minimize losses.

Chanakya’s Raj Mandal Theory comes to mind. Do google it in case not aware.

THIS is the time to put it to good use.

THIS is the time, it WILL manifest itself even if we don’t make many efforts to that end.

The future I foresee is one of great turbulence, lasting for atleast half a decade. This turbulence may not always translate into a protracted shooting war, but it most definitely will see localized military engagements.

This turbulence will also see the global economy as we know it, turn on its head. It will see a near and far neighbourhood – both regional and global – that will test the limits of our own diplomatic, military as well as economic heft.

We have absolutely no option but to be prepared for it.

Before this new decade is over, one wouldn’t be surprised to see the realignment of more than just a few borders the world over, own neighbourhood included.

At the cost of repetition, I’ll once again say that India is one of the few countries that stand to gain much.

Of course, it will mean short term pain as well. But that is any day preferable to long term pain, just as a few weeks of lockdown is preferable to a pandemic running wild in our societies.

The best part about this future is that we don’t have an option to avoid it!

It is best that we prepare ourselves for what it to come – the pain, as well as the goodies. Dare I say, I already see a few steps being taken in that direction. All I hope is to see the momentum build up further and then sustain over a long term.

The 5 Trillion dollar economy may come in 2027 instead of 2025, but come it will. And it will be a much more matured economy than what we have today, if we play it well.

The neighbourhood too, that has been in the grip of the ‘String of Pearls’, will soon see the hollowness of the Chinese model and at worst, become neutral once again.

Thanks for bearing with me over this long blog post. I end it with a silent prayer for all those who’ve died in this pandemic.

As far as China goes, let me just add this tweet to from seven years ago to this blog:

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And this one as well:

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On the US-Taliban Deal

Carrying on from this tweet, let me share some thoughts on the recently concluded US-Taliban deal. What I write below is just my observations / opinions. Feel free to disagree.

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Firstly, is this deal a sign that America has lost the war?

Well, many people say it is. Let me, however, offer a different point of view.

If America has indeed lost, who is it that has won this war?

Is it the Taliban? Is it Pakistan? Or is it someone else?

Let’s see ..

Taliban – Some ppl might say that they have won. But then, given the run-up to this deal when they couldn’t initially agree as to who will be the delegates representing the Taliban, leading to the postponement of the talks on atleast one occasion, I can only say that I look forward to the post America future of Afghanistan with increasing scepticism.

Till such time there was a common enemy to be fought, they stayed more or less together, though with a number of factions having their own geographical areas of influence which they guarded zealously even as they went about fighting the Americans. Now with the Americans soon to be gone, and suddenly so much more at stake, it is anybody’s guess as to how they will try and jockey for favourable positions with respect to the self appointed king makers.

Who are these self-appointed king makers, you asked?

Well, the Brown Panted ones sitting in Rawalpindi, of course!

They must be salivating at the laurels coming their way after defeating ‘yet another’ superpower, just like they ‘defeated’ the USSR in the 80s!

Which brings me to the question whether it is Pakistan that has won this war.

Well, they do come close to being the ones who have ‘won’. The simple reason for this being that they will get yet another opportunity to place yet another friendly regime in Afghanistan.

But .. the biggest question here is ‘Will they get an opportunity to install another friendly regime in Kabul at all?’

Feel free to ponder over that for a bit.

Firstly, let us see what constitutes a ‘friendly’ regime in Kabul from a Pakistani perspective. Quite simply, it is the Taliban who are under the thumb of Pakistan Army, who will gladly be their proxies when it comes to drug-running and exporting terror.

But more than that, they need the Taliban for what they are really meant to do – keep India away from Afghanistan, regardless of all the goodwill and all the humanitarian work that India has done for the Afghans. THIS is what their concept of ‘strategic depth’ is all about.

But then, given the recent statements from the Taliban leadership about India, this time round it may be a difficult thing to achieve, PROVIDED the Taliban manage to bomb their way to Kabul in the first place like they did in the ‘good old 90s!’

Somehow I find this prospect of a military takeover of Kabul a highly unlikely outcome.

90s were a very different world from what exists today. Even then, despite all economic and international diplomatic pressures, India was a steady supplier to the Northern Alliance. Today, with a $3 Trillion strong economy and much more ground presence by the way of humanitarian developmental projects executed over the last two decades or so and a more robust foreign police coupled with a friendly USA, not just the ethnic Tajiks but even the Taliban are more likely to accommodate Indian interests than was the case in the 90s. Plus the history of Balakot (will write another blog on that in the next couple of days, btw) and other not-so publicized military slaps on Pakistan Army, Indian influence is bound to be a viable countervail to Pakistani pressures.

Remember, even in the 90s, the Taliban had STILL refused to recognize the Durand Line as the international boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Talking about the Durand Line, I’ll just leave this tweet here 🙂

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This is another reason Pakistan always looks to have a pliant government in Kabul – The natural / historical border between present day Pakistan and Afghanistan is not the Durand Line, but the Indus River. On that note, I’ll just leave the screenshot of another tweet here as well:-

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Moving on, it is fair to assume that Pakistanis will be going to town celebrating the defeat of yet another superpower. Heck, that has already started, in fact!

But, there are still 14 months to go.

And this is an American establishment which has seen Pakistani perfidy first hand, mind you. An American President starting a new year with these thoughts says a lot.

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Yes, he might be withdrawing from Afghanistan, but if I were a Pakistani, I would be very cautious celebrating this withdrawal.

Why, you asked?

Well, because it will remove perhaps the ONLY leverage Pakistan has over the USA at present.

Yup. Let that sink in for a moment.

And even when Pakistan had this leverage, Americans freely droned the hell out of the Taliban in ‘sovereign’ Pakistani territory, as also killed dozens of their troops as well.

Now imagine an America that is NOT beholden to Pakistan for logistics supplies to Afghanistan!

Remember the difficult days that Pakistan faced once the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in the 80s?

Here’s what it was like – The Pressler Amendment, withheld F-16s that were already paid for, economic sanctions and basically, utter neglect of a terror breeding country by the USA.

You get my drift, right?

Let me now offer another chain of thoughts about the Americans withdrawing.

The moot question is Do They Even Need to be in Afghanistan?

They’ve killed Osama Ji a long time ago. Their homeland is much more secure today than it was pre 9/11.

IS IT STILL AMERICA’S WAR?

What Afghanistan is today, and what it might be 14 months hence, will still be a big improvement over what it was on September 11, 2001.

You may read the above statement of mine once more.

It is also brought out in the text of the agreement wherein the USA “commits to facilitate discussions between Afghanistan and Pakistan to work out arrangements to ensure neither country’s security is threatened by actions from the territory of the other side”

Understandably, Pakistan is jittery! So much so that they are already issuing ‘not so subtle’ threats to Afghanistan! Mind you, this is the same Pakistan that gets orgasmic everytime the USA hints at ‘mediating’ between Indian and Pakistan on Kashmir!

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Now tell me that Pakistan will NOT be playing a spoilsport in the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan just as it did when they were actually fighting there, and I will show you a white marble building in Agra that I wish to sell to you!

This is where the next 14 months become very critical. Any party not happy with the withdrawal of US troops can potentially be a game-spoiler by precipitating an incident or two whereby the Americans get involved for a bit longer. And such parties include Pakistan as well.

In any case, the 14 month period can be divided into two parts – pre and post US Presidential elections. Heading towards elections, the current US President would like to ensure things move ahead smoothly.

And in case he comes back for a second term (something that looks quite likely), well, all gloves will be off. In case the situation so demands, a small America force might still stay behind in Afghanistan. Trump would STILL want his troops to be out, however, especially since he is now committed to it. That would mean carrots (as in the current deal with Taliban) as well as sticks, as needed.

Pakistanis might celebrate all that they want, for now. That their new godfather, China, is a very rich fellow, also encourages them to some extent, no doubt.

But China is no America, especially when it comes to simply throwing away money! 

If CPEC is any indicator, Pakistan will soon find itself in an even tighter hug of death with China, and with no other friends / benefactors to lean upon.

To that end, China might be a party that gets to benefit the most – a new colony in the form of Pakistan, and access to the vaunted mineral wealth of Afghanistan!

But then, that is a topic for discussion some other day. For the time being, let me talk about implications on India.

We already have a template from the 90s as to what might be the impact. Once the Taliban captured Kabul in the 90s, the Pakistani terror exports to Kashmir saw a qualitative change with more and more Afghans and even a few fighters from other Arab / African countries landing up. On the above note, I’ll just leave this tweet from a few days ago over here (LINK). Do click on it and check out some of the replies as well.

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These were the ‘surplus stock’ from the terror factory feeding the Afghan Jihad, no doubt, but the Indian Army made sure that they didn’t make it out of Kashmir alive.

Much of the terror training too was ‘outsourced’ by Pakistan to the Taliban, as well as the al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Remember the cruise missiles that Bill Clinton sent cruising via Pakistan into Afghanistan to target Osama bin Laden after the Tanzania and Kenya embassy bombings?

Amongst those killed were LeT terrorists as well as a number of ISI personnel.

Osama Ji, however, had escaped, thanks to the early warning by his Pakistani friends!

Bottomline: Expect a short term spike in terror related incidents in Kashmir as well as elsewhere in the country once the US withdrawal is well underway.

Atleast this is what conventional wisdom says, no?

But, there is a counter-point to that as well. The India of 2020 is no longer the isolated, economically weak India of 1990s. If they couldn’t do anything to us then, what makes them think they will be able to do so now?

The answer might partially lie in the Pakistani hubris and that cannot be denied. However, given the kind of ‘interaction’ that India and Pakistan have had in the non-diplomatic sense, commencing with the carpet bombing by the BSF in 2014, right upto Balakot and the subsequent downing of a PAF F-16 by and Indian MiG 21, they will surely be looking to keep things below another such flare up. In any case, it will also be in Indian interests to ensure that Pakistan acts this way.

So what happens to the ‘surplus’ terror infrastructure suddenly at hand?

Well, this is where I sense an opportunity. The Taliban act in sync with Pakistan establishment mostly because of the hold they have over their families, many of whom reside inside Pakistan. This does get frustrating for them at times. Now with an Afghan leadership (Taliban included) ‘guided’ by powers that be, quest for reuniting of Pashtun lands with Afghanistan can commence in earnest. This is a worst case scenario for Pakistan, but then, so be it. Better they fight within their borders than on mine, right?

The time is ripe for such a scenario to unfold, what with the PTM movement and the violent crackdown on it by Pakistani authorities. There still exists adequate time to put such things in motion at our end.

In any case, with the Zaranj-Delaram highway operational, Afghanistan already imports more via Iran than via Pakistan. So there goes another lever of blackmail that Pakistan had over Afghanistan in the 90s.

Now, add to that a ‘far-fetched’ hypothetical scenario wherein we have an independent Balochistan, and Afghanistan will have the means to completely bypass Pakistan when it comes to accessing the Arabian Sea!

THIS is where the duplicitous game of Pakistan can, and should be called out.

A clean US withdrawal is NOT in Pakistan’s interests. Have no doubts about this.

If that happens, why would Afghans (with the blessings of remnant US presence in whatever form) do Pakistan’s bidding?

Especially when Pakistan is a country they loathe completely?

Especially when the US administration right up to the POTUS know about the perfidious Pakistani role in the past 19 years that led to the current quagmire?

Especially when India too is a $3 Trillion economy & growing fast?

The best case scenario for Pakistan is that it is still able to extract some concessions from the US by being appointed as the gatekeepers of ‘Afghan interests’ in return for monetary ‘assistance’!

Do I see that happening?

Not quite, I’d say.

Another interesting outcome of American withdrawal that not many are talking about is the implication of the same on India’s options for punitive action in case of future Pakistani provocations. Pakistan literally got away with murder, thanks to the American war in Afghanistan that took priority over every other regional power’s national interests. A lot of doors were closed for us thanks to this, while terror export from Pakistan continued gleefully. I tweeted this some days ago as well. Here is a screenshot of that tweet:-

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So yes, regardless of who comes to power in Kabul, there will be a LOT MORE freedom for India to do what it wants to do across the LoC and even the IB. I’m sure, the powers that be, in New Delhi, must be salivating at this prospect as well.

To cap this blog, all I will say is that the USSR and the USA failed in Afghanistan because of one key reason – they didn’t crush the pipeline from Pakistan feeding their enemies.

This is what I tweeted way back in 2012. It still holds true.

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On an unrelated note, here are some thoughts I blogged on the question of India sending her troops to fill the vacuum in Afghanistan – Indian Troops in Afghanistan.
May have a look.

That the POTUS made no mention of it lately, only reinforces my point of view- India has already refused!

In the end, I’ll just leave this one year old tweet here. Remember, since Jimmy Carter, Trump remains the ONLY US President who hasn’t invaded a new country. Will he remain so in case of a second term as well? If not, which might that country be? 🙂

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Indian Troops in Afghanistan

Ok folks, so this tweet has generated quite a few reactions on my TL as well as DMs.

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In light of this, let me share my own thoughts on the topic of Indian troops for Afghanistan. Thoughts are still unstructured, but here goes!

Firstly, the question one must ask ourselves is WHY would anyone want Indian troops to help them with their own expeditionary wars.
Well, the answer to that, IMO, is two-fold.
Firstly, the sheer numbers that the Indian armed forces field could put any other army to shame.

Secondly, along with those numbers is the battle winning performance of such troops wherever they have been involved. And yes, I include Op Pawan when I make this statement. Will come back to that in a while.

So the reason why the USA would covet Indian troops to help it in Afghanistan is understandable.
But, should India be sending her troops to fight a battle in which we have hardly any stake whatsoever?
My answer – HELL NO!

Yes, I know there are folks who would disagree with me.

Let me just ask them two questions – Firstly, what would be the aim that you would give to the Indian Army in case they do end up going to Afghanistan, as you want them to?

Secondly, HOW MANY troops would you consider sufficient?

Let me take the first question first, and try and answer it with another one – What actually has been American aim in this war?

Heck, the Americans themselves no longer know what their own army is doing there!

The war started in 2001 with destruction of al Qaeda as its aim.

Then they wanted to turn Afghanistan into a democracy, something that the country had NEVER been, ever, and given its geography and culture, could never be.

Of course, they also wanted to rebuild the war-torn country simultaneously, sinking billions and billions of dollars without any plan.

Then there were those within the American administration who wanted to uplift the status of the women in Afghanistan.

There were yet others who wanted to reshape the regional balance of power between India, Pakistan, Iran and Russia.

Bottomline: There was absolutely no strategy worth the name!

To top it, they didn’t even seem to know who was the enemy that they were supposed to be fighting!

Was it al Qaeda?
Was it Taliban?
Or was it Pakistan?

Wait, Pakistan?

But weren’t they supposed to be allies of the USA in the war, and weren’t they getting so handsomely rewarded with monies and what not, because of this?

But then, why was the Taliban always finding sanctuary inside Pakistan?
And why was Osama bin Laden found hiding in a garrison town right under the nose of the Pakistan Army?
Plus, why in the world were those logistics routes blocked for nearly six months by their ‘ally’?

Bottomline: The face of the enemy was al Qaeda, or even the Taliban, but the real enemy lived comfortably across the Durand Line, working on commands issued in Rawalpindi.

And icing on the cake?
America was paying them billions of dollars each year to kill her soldiers in Afghanistan!

So, in the end, if you have to fight Pakistan then why ask for Indian troops to go to Afghanistan of all places!

Heck, we can do a much much better job of it sitting right here along their borders in J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat, no?

Ok, so in a hypothetical scenario, we do end up agreeing to send our troops to Afghanistan even without a clear cut aim and our social media warriors go gaga saying now we can ‘exert pressure’ on Pakistan from two sides.

Let us say it happens.

Now comes the question – HOW MANY troops would you want to send there!
Let me come to that in a while.
For the time being, let me leave this map here for you to ponder over.
(I know this is an old map, but do indulge me for a bit)

Image

From the map above, just visualize the relative size of the Kashmir Valley.

Yes, just this much area takes up the bulk of the 63 Rashtriya Rifles battalions that wikipedia tells me there are, to keep under effective control.

Yup, feel free to ponder over that for a while.

Or would you want the template of the IPKF to be applied in Afghanistan?

Once again, wikipedia tell me that at its peak the Indian Army had FOUR divisions + two additional brigades worth of army troops inside Sri Lanka, duly supported by the Air Force and Navy.

Yet, they were once again confined to a very small piece of geography of Sri Lanka. They fought well, but India lost the war because at the end of the day, we had no clear, unambiguous political aim.

Anyone see any similarities with the American war in Afghanistan yet?

Of course, at its peak, the Americans and their allies had more than 150,000 troops inside Afghanistan, backed by an aerial armada which not even many European countries individually could boast of.

Yet, they were never ever close to any victory.

Why?

Firstly, because they didn’t know what would define victory, since they didn’t know what or who was it that they were fighting.

Secondly, the real enemy sat comfortable across the Durand Line, getting fat on THEIR dollars!

Why Pakistan got away without war despite the Parliament Attack, the Kaluchak Massacre (Anyone remember Indian PM’s ‘Aar Paar ki Ladai’ statement) or even the Mumbai attacks?

The answer – They were key ‘ally’ in the American war in Afghanistan.

Take that!

And now when they are drawing down and bringing their own numbers to less than 10,000, you want the Indian Army to go there?

If despite such massive technological and numerical superiority the Americans couldn’t do zilch, what might even four Indian divisions aka IPKF achieve?

But Afghans are our friends, you said?

To this I’ll say it is not the Afghans we would be fighting there, it is the Pakistan Army and their terror proxies. And unlike USA, we wouldn’t have the luxury of just throwing away massive amounts of unaccounted dollars either!

Pressure on Pakistan, you said?

Well, WAKE UP, I’ll say!!

What bloody pressure on Pakistan can you exert sitting so far away from your own borders and sitting inside Afghanistan for god’s sake? Unless of course you are planning to invade Pakistan via the Khyber!

Point is, sitting in Afghanistan, you will only be dealing with Pakistani proxies and nothing else.

But wait, even if you are dreaming about the Indian Army marching victoriously through the Khyber Pass, who will be supplying them?

Yup, NOT ONE fan of sending Indian troops to Afg has yet talked about logistics!
Heck, even the Americans couldn’t quite answer that question, thanks to Pakistan!
On that note, I’ll just leave the screenshot of this 8 year old tweet of mine here to explain whatever it explains!

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Yes, LOGISTICS!
And of course, money to sustain an expeditionary force in active operations!
Plus, political aim!

Now you see why I am personally not in favour?

But then, America is our friend, no? And friends deserve to be helped, especially since they hold the key to so much good that might come your way, right?

I actually agree with this wholeheartedly, especially when they have a transactional businessman guy leading them.

So what is it that can be done, you ask?

SO MUCH, I’ll say!

But it better be on our terms, or atleast on terms which will lead to mutual gain for both Indian and the USA.

To do that, all that needs to be done is to increase pressure on Pakistan!

And what better way of doing this than by being more proactive on the LoC?

Oh, wait, that is something which is already happening, right?

Well, things can always be calibrated upwards or even downwards for that matter.

All that needs to be done is to tweak the ‘game’ on the LoC by just a few notches for permanent gains, tactical or even strategic. Add to that the dire economic state that Pakistan finds itself in and you can guess how much of a spoiler they can be for the American game in Afghanistan.

The blackmailing game which Pakistan has played for so long can so easily be turned on its head that they wouldn’t know which way to run to, especially with China under extreme stress currently and the current state of their relationship with the Saudis as well.

Of course there are those who (rightly) say that we have to have a direct land route to Afghanistan via PoK / Gilgit-Baltistan before committing any troops there. But this is a discussion for some other day.

For the time being, however, I’ll be content to say that the Indian Armed Forces can help the American effort in Afghanistan from WITHIN OUR OWN BORDERS, or even a bit across from the borders, if needed.

But boots on ground in Afghanistan is only going to invite disaster, something that the Americans themselves have realized, especially with an ‘ally’ like Pakistan.
In our case, even the facade of being an ‘ally’ wouldn’t be there.
Rest I leave to your imagination.

JMTs

Ek Saathi Aur Bhi Tha

Amar_Jawan_Jyoti,_India_Gate

SCREENPLAY COMMENCES

Two characters – ‘C’ (Capt Cautious) and ‘R’ (Capt Reckless)

Scene: A young Captain R sitting in a bar, drinking. (Old pattern Indian Army camouflage uniform. Four ribbons on his uniform – Sena Medal, Op Rakshak, Samanya Seva Medal, 50 yrs medal)

Suddenly in walks Captain C (wearing same uniform but with only three ribbons – Op Rakshak, Samanya Seva Medal and 50 years medal). Scans the bar and sees his old friend R sitting alone, drinking. His eyes light up on seeing him and walks up to him.

R hasn’t seen him. Suddenly he hears C – ‘Kitni baar bola hai akele akele mat piya kar’. He almost jumps up & hugs C tightly. C sits across a small table from R.

R – Saala, it’s been what, like 2 years? Good to see you bud! WTF are you doing here?

C – Banihal transit camp mein koi kya karne aata hai? My Paltan is in Dras. Going back there after leave. Just one of the perks of the job that here at Banihal you get to have a drink sitting next to the Chenab, with good friends. (Pause) Well, mostly. Sometimes one ends up having a drink with ppl like you!  (Both laugh). And what are YOU doing here?

R – I am the convoy commander of the Srinagar – Banihal convoy.

C (laughing) – So your CO finally found a way to keep you away from trouble?

R laughs along .. ‘Well, the jury is still out on that’

Waiter brings a drink for C – a rum with two ice cubes in it. Looks questioningly at C.

C (to waiter) – Mere drinks Capt R Saab ke naam par likho. Saab ko Sena Medal mila hai abhi abhi!

R (mock anger) – Saale kanjoos!

C – Abe tension mat le .. Rum hee pee raha hoon. Kangaal nahi ho jayega tu!

R – Ok then, for kanjoos read cheap!

(Both laugh)

C – Btw, congrats for your well deserved Sena Medal. Cheers to you!

R – Thanks bhai.

(Both clink their glasses and take a sip)

R – But seriously .. good to see you here out of the blue .. aaj bade din baad peene ka maza aa raha hai

C – Cheers to that too!

R (Suddenly sombre mood after a couple of sips) – You heard about Ribhu Saxena?

C (Equally serious, nostalgic) – Haan suna. Almost right after commissioning. Pyara banda tha. And it had to be him that was the first of our course to go. Still remember the fun we had during the mid term hike to Jim Corbett National Park in our last term in the IMA. What days..

R (Laughing) – You know how I met him last?

C – Nope

R – Was posted in Delhi initially. Headed to Priya Complex one evening and I suddenly saw him standing by the road. That bugger was waiting for his girlfriend for a date. Uski kismat, GF se pehle main bhid gaya  (laughs). Needless to say, I hijacked him and made him take me to a bar nearby. Aakhri din tak gaaliyan deta raha mere ko. Break-up ho gaya uska meri wajah se!

(Both let out a hearty laugh)

R (Back in serious mode after a sip) – Now there’s a road named after him near Priya Complex – Shaheed Lieutenant Ribhu Saxena Marg.

C – Such a sweet guy. Never deserved this.

R – None of them did. Vishal, Suresh, Sajjan, Triveni, Amit Sharma, Amit Singh .. None of them

C (Shocked) – AMIT SHARMA TOO??

R – You didn’t know?

C – I had no clue .. Amit Sharma? Seriously? How?

R – He was the co-pilot of the Cheetah that crashed in Siachen last month. A freak tailwind while landing. Had no chance at all.

C – Bloody hell. Had attended his wedding  earlier last year in Feb. Just happened to be on leave and was able to make it. Never knew that would be the last time we’ll meet.

C (Now in a serious mood) – You know .. you too should be a bit careful. Jaag ja mein kehta hoon. I know how you got your Sena Medal. After you had killed 5, you still chose to run after a fleeing terrorist? You know what a close call it was, don’t you?

R (Laughing) – Hahaha .. it was that terrorist’s day to die that day, not mine!

C – Bugger, this is not a laughing matter. That was a foolhardy thing to do. I’m not doubting your guts or josh, but aaj nahi toh kal us saale ko maar hee dete hum. Kab tak bhaagta woh saala? Think of your parents. Think of Riya atleast

(Waiter refills their glasses)

R (Laughing even loudly) – Aur Capt C ka moral lecture phir se chaalu! Saala Academy ka yeh keeda tera gaya nahi abhi tak! Remember, how juniors used to dread reporting to you for punishments? (laughs) Bolte the ‘Sir hockey stick se pitai kar lo, par ye lecture bandh karo’!

C (Embarrassed laughter) – Grow up fucker! Aaj bhi Academy ke first termer ki tarah hee hai tu. Trying to be smart, ending up being a smart ass! (laughs as he continues talking). Remember Sergeant Sumit? How he ‘bajaod’ the entire course during NDA days just because YOU were missing from a report? And where were you?

R (Butts in, cutting off C) – Hiding inside my cupboard, sleeping (Laughs out loud). Lekin tere ko toh pata tha na? Kyon nahi bataya usko? Bach jaate na?

C – Saale, you know I would never rat out on you, or for that matter, any of my buddies! Woh alag baat hai ki I still have scars on my back from the punishment we were put through!

(Both laugh)

R (Laughing mischievously) – I know. Isi chakkar mein kitni neend kheenchi hai maine NDA ke time, tere naam ke cheque phaad ke!

C – Now you know why you pay for my drinks whenever we meet!

(Both laugh)

(Waiter refills their drinks)

C – Let this be for the ones that have gone down so far ..

R (Sombre) – And to those who are bound to fall in this ‘war’ in coming years too ..

C – Begins to say something .. Let’s it go .. Doesn’t say

R notices that

R – Kya bol raha tha, bol de

C (Deadly serious) – The way Sajjan went – sad, but not surprising. Uss ghode ki lagam agar ek second bhi dheeli chhodte to saala kya kar dega pata nahi chalta .. Bloody joker. Lived bindass, devil may care attitude. Died with the same attitude too. God bless that fucker

Once again C starts to say something but stops

R – Bol de BH**ch**d kya bolna hai!

C – Achha toh sunn. Now I see similar tendencies in you too. We may not have met for a long time, lekin khabar milti rehti hai. Do it as a favour to me, but hold your horses once in a while.

R (Laughing) – O Babaji, bakhsh do mere ko! (Takes a sip. Gets a bit serious) Situation cannot be restored by us sitting down on our bums, twiddling our thumbs & letting the terrorists have a free run of OUR Valley.

C – I know brother, and you also know I’m not asking you to be a coward. Far from it, in fact. All I am saying is try not to be a dead hero ..

(Waiter refills their drinks)

R (Sombre) – But you know people WILL die .. such is the nature of our profession ..

C (Equally serious) – Yes I know that. But that doesn’t mean throwing away your life on the cheap. If and when it happens – MAKE IT COUNT. You owe it to yourself.

R (Breaks the mood, laughing) – Btw, talking about Sajjan .. remember how he busted his b@lls jumping from the 10m board in the Academy swimming pool TEN TIMES IN A ROW!

C (Glass in hand, taking a sip, almost spits it out laughing) – Saala, nothing surprising about him. Finally managed to keep his legs together in his 10th jump, managing to pass the test!

(Both Laugh)

C (Glass still in hand) – Saala bahut pee liya aaj. You know I don’t drink, except with you and a few others. Aaj ka bass ho gaya re.

R – Abe seedhe seedhe bol na tere ko itne hee log hain jo free ki daru pilaate hain!

C (Laughing) – Chal ek kaam karte hain. The day we become COs, let us meet here again. Drinks will be on me, just try and stay alive till then! You know I don’t drink alone!

R (Mockingly) – Sir, Yes Sir!

C puts his glass down on the table.

Camera slowly zooms in on the glass as he puts it down. Now the camera is solely focussing on the glass. Two ice cubes float in the glass

(In the background, now you can hear the static of wireless sets and a conversation happening in very stressful conditions. Two characters – Capt C and his CO)

CO – C, give me a report

C (Shouting) (Firing and explosions in background) – Sir, we are just 50m from the objective. Heavy fire has pinned us down. Need arty support to keep enemy’s head down.

CO – Roger

(More explosions)

C (Along with a few other voices) – JAI MAHAKAALI AAYO GORKHALI!!

(More gunfire and explosions. People shouting. Gradually the noise subsides)

C – Sir, we have reached the top of Pt 4812. The objective is ours!

CO – Great Job, C! What about casualties?

C – Sir 12 casualties out of 20. 7 fatal, 5 injured, two of them seriously.

CO – Damn. What about you?

C – Sir, a minor gunshot wound on left shoulder. Don’t worry, I am good. We are consolidating on the objective now, just in case the enemy launches a counter attack.

CO – Yes, he WILL. Be prepared

(Sounds of explosions and gunfire)

CO – C .. REPORT

C (Shouting) (large amount of gunfire in background) – SIR WE ARE UNDER HEAVY ATTACK. WILL REPORT BACK IN A WHILE. GET ME ARTY FIRE AT GRID REFERENCE 887453

CO – That is not very far from your own location .. keep your head down. Wait Out.

(More gunfire .. Followed by large number of explosions, then silence)

C (heavy breathing, speaking with difficulty) – That was a close one, Sir. We’ve beaten them back. Down to four men now, two somewhat seriously injured, including myself.

CO – C, UAV shows enemy building up for another counter attack. 50+ enemy soldiers 15 minutes away from you and closing in. Withdraw from the objective NOW.

C – NO WAY SIR. My men have not shed so much blood here just to withdraw from THEIR OWN land and let it be trampled under enemy’s boots.

CO – That is an order. Just four of you cannot hold on ..

C – Sorry Sir. Won’t withdraw. CANNOT withdraw even if I wanted to. I won’t leave behind my dead. Even my wounded cannot possibly walk back on their own. How long before we can expect reinforcements?

CO – Not for next 4 hours.

C (Gunshots and explosions) – No worries Sir. Let me do my own bit for my motherland. (Gunshots come closer). Enemy is closing in, let us deal with him. (Serious tone now) Jab tak hum log hain, dushman is zameen par pair nahi rakhega.

(More gunshots and explosions, increasing in intensity)

C (Speaking with some difficulty, breathing heavily) – Sir .. arty support. Coordinates 892454

CO – C, That is your own damn location .. re-confirm your coordinates

C – I know Sir. We are as good as dead. Let us take some enemy with us too. Hurry up  Sir

CO – God Bless you Son ..

(Explosions .. then silence)

After a gap, a third voice on wireless. Let us call him X

X – Sir, we’ve reached Pt 4812 top. It’s a bloodbath over here Sir .. I see atleast 38 dead enemy soldiers. All our boys are martyred too. Capt C’s body has been blown apart. Looks like he himself was manning the light machine gun. Enemy bodies are littered next to him

CO – (Sigh) Roger. Consolidate on the objective. I’m sending additional boys to get down the mortal remains of our guys.

As this wireless conversation goes on, the ice cubes in C’s drink keep melting. By the time the conversation ends, ice cubes are completely melted

Camera now zooms out of C’s drink to bring his chair back in frame along with his glass. The chair is empty.

Camera pans across the bar to R.

R has now aged. Wearing a Colonel’s rank with a uniform full of ribbons – Shaurya Chakra, Sena Medal, Samanya Seva Medal, Op Rakshak, Op Hifazat, 50 years medal, Nine Years Service Medal, Videsh Seva Medal, United Nations (UNIFIL) Medal ,Op Vijay Medal and a COAS commendation card. Uniform is the current Indian Army pattern camouflage uniform.

R (wiping a tear / eyes brimming with tears) – You Bastard .. You and your Maha Vir Chakra .. And you said I (emphasis on ‘I’) was the mad one .. (moves on to pick up C’s drink) .. this is the drink that gets me drunk tonight. And this is on you. You better pay me back when we meet on the other side ..

SCREENPLAY ENDS

Remembering 1965

So folks, earlier this week was the anniversary of the ceasefire of the 1965 war – a war that Pakis chest-thumpingly claim to have ‘decisively’ won. Well, like all Paki claims, this one too needs to be taken with a tonne of salt. Let me share some thoughts on it ..

First, a bit of background.

1960s were a ‘glorious’ time for Pakistan. Their economy was ‘booming’, their first (of many) IMF bailouts of 1958 notwithstanding! To be fair, they were most definitely doing relatively better than us, though.

And then, there was the glorious, self styled Field Marshal sitting comfortably in the President’s chair, having imposed the first (of many) military rules over the land of the pure! And he was being feted by no less than President Kennedy of the mighty US of A!

Then there was the Soviet bogey that had led to Pakis’ entry into the Baghdad Pact, later CENTO and all the shining military hardware that came as bakhsheesh with it, not to mention the Mutual Defence Assistance Act of 1954.

To their East was their eternal enemy – broken and humiliated in the aftermath of the 1962 war, followed by the demise of Nehru. His successor, Shastri, was a physically diminutive man who was easily dismissed by the tall and imposing Ayub Khan as a weakling.

To be a Paki at that moment in history was .. well .. good, esp in the eyes of Pakis!

‘Hindu morale’ was ‘low’, you see! If only they knew how wrong they were!

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Unsurprisingly, Ayub soon felt a familiar ‘itch’ in his nether regions! All those shining toys, and a broken enemy!

Kashmir was his for the taking!

He would be more than just a self styled field marshal – he would be the next Qaid – The one who won Kashmir!

Heck, Pakis had even made songs about that! So what if the said songs were lifted nearly word for word from a Bollywood song, even before the term ‘Bollywood’ had been coined! (Just watch this video from the 3 min mark!)

So in he went! Paki Pattons soon came visiting Kutch in April 1965, followed by infantry assaults to enforce their ‘claim’ on Indian lands!

Too bad a small contingent of CRPF troopers foiled an entire Paki Brigade attack, killing dozens & even taking 4 alive!

For more info on the above, just google “sardar post” + 1965!

Well, Pakis soon went back under international pressure, smug in their belief that the measured Indian reaction was actually Indian weakness!

Kashmir was but a matter of weeks away!

But true to Brown Pants’ ‘martial’ reputation, they sent in ‘volunteers’ in civvies to ‘liberate’ Kashmir, aka 1947. They even gave it a glamourous name – Operation Gibraltar!

Too bad that the Kashmiris failed to ‘rise up’ as anticipated.

To add insult to injury, Kashmiris actually helped the Indian forces round up their ‘liberators’. In the process, the Indian army even captured the Haji Pir Pass!

Take that, Ayub!

Shaken up, he unleashed his Pattons and Sabres to retake Kashmir in an area where Pakistan enjoys geographical advantage – Chhamb! This time he named it Operation Grand Slam!

The Paki attack was on the verge of success, stubborn Indian defences notwithstanding.

And then the Paki attack suddenly halted. You see, Ayub realised that the general enroute to perhaps the most glorious victory was an Ahmediyya – Maj Gen Akhtar Hussain Malik! There was no way an Ahmediyya could be credited with winning Kashmir. No Sir!

So out went Akhtar Hussain Malik and in came Yahya Khan.

The second name rings a bell, doesn’t it?!

Well, the one day lost in this ‘reorganisation’ gave just enough time to India to reinforce its defences. Akhnoor was now out of Pakis’ reach.

This was the end of his Grand Slam!

Yet, the pressure was still considerable.

There was only one way to relieve it – open up another front across the IB.

The little ‘tall’ man of India – PM Lal Bahadur Shastri bit the bullet and ordered the Indian Army into Paki Punjab. Lahore and Sialkot were soon threatened.

Predictably, the Pakis reeled back from Chhamb to reinforce these sectors.

To this day, you will find Pakis ‘upset’ at this ‘betrayal’ by India for opening new fronts across the IB in Punjab and denying Pakis a victory in Kashmir!

I kid you not!

The biggest tank battles and infantry assaults since WW2 were on!

t was here that the Pakis played a masterstroke – they brought out a whole Armoured Division that Indians had no idea existed. It reached all the way to Khem Karan / Asal Uttar.

It was here that they all met their maker – at the hands of men like Abdul Hamid and Salim Caleb.

In the meantime, Lt Col Tarapore and thousands like him earned immortal fame scores of kilometres deep in Chawinda and thereabouts.

In the air too, the much celebrated Sabre Jets of the PAF had more than met their match in the IAF Gnats. Heck, a Mystere flown by Sqn Ldr Devayya even brought down a Starfighter.

So much for the PAF too!

Oh, talking about the PAF, there was the ‘fantastical’ claim of Shri MM Alam shooting down FIVE IAF Hunters – all of them within 28 seconds!

Well, whatever makes them happy!

Of course, PAF never released ANY gun camera footage of the epic sortie!

As the war dragged on, Pakis running low on ammo were looking for an ‘honoourable’ way out. It soon came in the form of a ceasefire brokered by the powers that be.

Ayub Khan gladly accepted it, thanking his stars!

Too bad that Kashmir still wasn’t in his hands.

Too bad that Haji Pir was still in Indian hands.

Too bad that Indian tanks were way deep into Pakistani territory.

Too bad that his much vaunted ‘surprise’ armoured div lay in tatters at Khem Karan / Asal Uttar.

Atleast he had won!

Heck, there even were Roohani Taaqats helping the Pakistani soldiers on the battlefield.

Once again, I kid you not! Here’s proof!

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Take that, you Indians!

Bottomline: When the guns stopped shooting, Pakis claimed to be in occupation of 650 sq kilometres of Indian territory, much of it in the deserts while India occupied 3900 square kilometres of Paki territory, much of it in Punjab.

Yup, Pakis will keep parroting they won.

Well, be my guests!

May you ‘win’ more such victories that end up in the loss of half your country merely six years later, like it happened in 1971! Hindu Morale had withstood all those shiny new Pattons & Starfighters!

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1965 was, for Indian armed forces as well as the Indian Nation, a watershed. Especially in the aftermath of the 1962 disaster. The steps reorganising and re-equipping the defence forces initiated from 1963 onwards finally bore fruit.

Yes there were weak moments – like the one that befell the GOC 15 Div who actually proposed withdrawal to the East of Beas.

Thankfully, there were stronger willed men like General Harbaksh Singh who ensured such suggestions were nipped in the bud.

Herein also lay a crucial difference between Indian and Pakistani triggers for changing military leaders in the middle of war, While Pakis removed a general on the verge of victory, India removed one who was suggesting a withdrawal!

In 1965, the Indian Army celebrated 50 years of the war in a befitting manner.
I too did my bit by tweeting a thread, much more detailed than this one.
Here is the LINK to the first tweet of that thread.

Worth a read, I’d say; rather I INSIST!

In the end, I’ll just leave a link to THIS photo thread here to cap this thread.

Remember, folks, if not for 1962, 1965 might have been totally different.

AND If not for 1965, 1971 might not have been as glorious.

On Pakistan’s Kashmir Conundrum – Part II (Running to Stand Still!)

Folks, sharing some thoughts on how the events post the abrogation of Article 370 in J&K have shaped up thus far.

Thoughts are still unstructured. Let’s see how it goes ..

I had share some thoughts some two weeks ago vide THIS blog post. Current chain of thoughts carries on from here. There might be some repetitions, plz pardon that!

One thing is crystal clear- there seems to be no end to the rabble rousing rhetoric from Paki side The crowning glory came just last Friday, with the Beggar-in-Chief giving away his intentions in advance by sounding out his bhookha nanga masses to cross the LoC ‘on his signal’!

I’ll come to that in a while.

There are other things to be discussed before that. Social Media has been abuzz lately with one ‘prominent’ Paki after another letting out one verbal fart after another, led all the way by the Propagandu-in-Chief himself. (Do visit his twitter handle, btw!)

Now before someone comes after me for not mentioning the Beggar-in-Chief Kaptaan Imran Saheb, let me ask you to read the previous paragraph again!

Ghafoor is the one leading the campaign. Have no doubts about it!

In any case, ‘Kaptaan’ is far far lower in the pecking order when compared to a General, and that too when the said General is Shri Propagandu-in-Chief himself!

But this begets another question – Why in the world are they so hell bent on making such fools of themselves, hainji?

There could be two reasons for this. Either they REALLY think that they can get Kashmir this time round.

Or

They are trying to prevent their masses from asking other, more ‘pressing’ question. Questions regarding the shit-hole that their country is rapidly becoming.

A rational person would gravitate towards assuming it is the second reason why they keep shouting ‘Hai Kashmir Le Gaya Modi’!

But then, no one ever accused Paki Fauj of being rational, no?

Well, as rational people, let us analyze the second reason for a while!

Current state of Pakistan would put any thinking person into a coma. Economy is down in the dumps, rupee just out of a free-fall but can get into another one anytime, forex reserves running into negative 12Bn dollars DESPITE 14Bn dollars of loans .. You get my drift, right?

Then there are the yahoos who form the bulk of their populace – throwing spanners in all plans of their military masters, latest being the recent destruction of the Hindu temple in Ghotki at a time when their own ‘leaders’ are crying themselves hoarse over Indian minorities!

And then is the small issue of Afghanistan. Hmmm .. yet another superpower that was very nearly on the verge of ‘defeat’ at the hands of the great Paki Brown Pants suddenly announced a change in plans regarding moving out of Afghanistan!

The announcement by Shri Donald was nothing short of a KLPD for the brown pants. Not only had the superpower refused to grant the much awaited victory to the brown pants, but it had also complicated their plans of diverting taliban cannon fodder into Kashmir.

THIS was a major problem, one that has never been publicly acknowledged, though.

And then, Shri Osama bin Laden’s son was dispatched by the US where else, but inside Pakistan itself, just like his martyred father!

This is not a very good time to be a Paki, I tell you!

So they keep doing what they do best – Shouting at the top of their voices in front of their audiences of yahoos, tweeting away to glory about Bad Bad India, getting paid articles in ‘respectable’ western media outlets and such likes.

Oh, talking about paid articles, even the Beggar-in-Chief himself wrote an entire op-ed in the NYT recently!

To his credit, he wrote all of it himself!

Sachchi!

Bottomline – they are number 1 in the propagandu world in believing that they are number 1 in the propagandu world!

But all that they have achieved so far is that they have been running to stand still!

No one in this world has time for this beggar of a nation!

Heck, even as the Beggar-in-Chief kept crying ‘Hai Hai Modi Kashmir Le Gaya’, Trump announced he will be sharing a stage with Modi!

And .. behind the scenes .. they dispatched a team to Bangkok some days ago.

No, you dirty minded ones, it was not the ‘usual’ itinerary this time! This time, they had to make time from their ‘busy Bangkok schedules’ to prostrate themselves before the FATF folks!

Guess the rod was in the other hand this time!

Btw, there is already another Paki team in New York to once again beg the FATF not to put them on the black list!

Ironically, just staying on the grey list will be touted as a HUGE victory, IF they don’t get blacklisted!

But .. the Paki awam is happy standing up every Friday for 30 minutes in order to show their ‘bhaichara’ for their Kashmiri ‘brethren’! Oh wait, they didn’t do it last Friday, no?

Something tells me that this ‘Pakistaniyon, Khade ho jao’ tamasha too will cease soon, just like the ‘We will go to the ICJ’ nonsense suddenly stopped when they realized that they cannot go to the ICJ!

But then, why keep shouting nonsense when you yourself know it is no good?

Well, because once they stop shouting, their own yahoos will start asking what did all this achieve. I kid you not! Heck, the hashtag #GetLostTraitorNiazi is already doing rounds on Paki twitterscape!

Who is Niazi, you asked?

Well, this Niazi is Shri Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi!

There was an AAK Niazi who lost East Pakistan in 1971, and now here is an IAK Niazi who is already being accused of having lost Kashmir in 2019!

And you think he will stop crying himself hoarse?

The brown pants have played this round quite well once again, but only just!

Why so?

Because they have virtually destroyed all semblance of opposition to Shri Niazi’s PTI!

The only choice I see left once Niazi is let go, is Shah Mahmood Qureshi, with his huge ego and all that! On that note, I will just leave this screenshot here!

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Now, in order to save his own Prime Ministership, selected or not, Imran Bhai has promised to YET AGAIN ‘internationalize’ the Kashmir issue – this time at the UNGA later this month.

Like I said before, he has to keep running, merely to stand still!

And all this, when PM Modi has not uttered the word ‘Pakistan’ even once in the past few months!
But what happens after the UNGA rudaali by Beggar-in-Chief?
Will India give Kashmir to Pak?
Or atleast restore Article 370?

Well, it happens every night – in their (wet) dreams!

But jokes apart, what happens after the UNGA is the FATF decision. That is expected in Oct or Nov.

THIS, folks, is the thing to wait for.

On that note, let me offer you a conspiracy theory. This recent increase of import duty on Malaysian refined palm oil is atleast partially attributable to the fact that Malaysia continues to support Pakistan in FATF, along with China and Turkey.

jhgk

Oct onwards, I foresee the clamour for ‘Teaching India ANOTHER Lesson’ only growing inside Pakistan.

Why ‘another’ lesson, you ask?

Well, because they have already ‘taught’ us a lesson by deliberately missing military targets even after using PGMs on 27 Feb, then shooting down a MiG 21 and also a Su-30 that same day, while NOT losing their two seater F-16!

Take that, you Indians!

And then just to taunt India – they gave a higher award to the pilot who shot down the MiG 21 than to the one who supposedly killed the Su-30!

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Oh, and the memorial to commemorate the ‘great victory’ of 27 Feb also has the graves of the two F-16 Pilots who did not die that day at the hands of #AbhinandanVarthaman!

Now tell me what will they say when their yahoos ask why haven’t they already got Kashmir back, hainji?

THIS is where this blatant propagandu warfare will come back to haunt them. They will simply HAVE to show some action, even if merely to placate their bloodthirsty yahoos. And knowing this GOI, they know that Indian #SwiftRetort WILL come and won’t be hot air like theirs was!

The only other option with the Brown Pants is making Imran the fall guy, just like they did to Nawaz Sharif some two decades ago!

Now you know why Imran is so worked up!

His days are numbered.

Period.

This war mongering from Pakis of all hues will continue. I doubt there is any other country where the head of the govt himself threatens nuclear war atleast twice a day and thrice at night!

Welcome to Naya Pakistan, folks!

But do brace yourselves for yet another act of self destructive lunacy that they will bring upon themselves, and us, aka 1965, 1971, 1999.

That’s it for the time being. Do remember we are in the midst of the 54th anniversary of 1965 war this month.

PS: Pakis won that war!

On Pakistan’s Kashmir Conundrum!

Ok Folks, moving on from this tweet quoted below, sharing some thoughts on the recent events and how the game of headless chickens in Pakistan is playing out. All views are strictly personal, so feel free to disagree!

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Firstly, I would like to thank this joker from the Land of the Pure for agreeing with me (refer quoted tweet above)! So what if he is an idiot, atleast he is an idiot who agrees with me!

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But on a more serious note, it has been really interesting to see the Pakis fumbling around to find an ‘honourable’ way to deal with this ‘annexation’ of Kashmir by India.

Why they do it, you asked?

Well, would Shri Bajwa, or Shri Beggar-in-Chief Imran want to go down in history as the jokers who lost Kashmir, hainji? Loss of East Pakistan still hurts, and you want to add the loss of Kashmir as well?

You see where I am going with this?

But .. is Kashmir really lost? Of course not! Article 370 didn’t exist in 1947, or even in 1948 when the UN resolution was passed. So technically, nothing has changed when viewed from that lens!

And Pakis complaining about changing demography in Kashmir.. well irony might as well pick up a gun & go kill all those Shias of Gilgit-Baltistan whom a certain Brigadier Musharraf failed to kill when he ‘quelled’ a revolt against forced immigration of Sunni Pashtuns in their lands.

But then, why in the world are Pakis doing all this randi-rona over a non issue? Of course, the ‘intensity’ of it all caught even me by surprise. An event could have been commented upon with a one line statement and left as it was, has been made into a life or death struggle!

Well, I hypothesize that it is because they don’t know what else to do. Not after all that time and effort spent in indoctrinating their awam with all the crap that they’ve fed them.

Add to it the SPECTACULAR aerial ‘victory’ of 27th Feb, and you know they had no choice either!

Then there was the offer of mediation by Shri Donald, made hardly a couple of days before the rug .. err .. Article 370 was pulled by the GOI.

All in all, this could possibly explain their ‘confidence’ in raising hell, no?

Moreover, they are right on the verge of defeating yet another superpower through their proxies in Afghanistan. So close that even Shri Donald had to bow down to their demand of mediation in Kashmir!

Well, you see where I am going with this chain of thoughts, right?

So they did what comes naturally to them – they cried out loud. And then they realized – no one was paying any attention to them!

Even their request to the UN to ‘discuss’ the issue fell flat, until Shri Xi stepped in and made another request.

KASHMIR ISSUE HAS BEEN INTERNATIONALIZED, they yelled at the top of their voices, patting themselves on their backs!

Well, boo .. fucking .. hoo to that!

All that China could manage was an INFORMAL discussion and with no statement at the end of it.

So what?, yelled the Pakis, atleast it was discussed in the UN! We won, they yelled as they danced around!

Well, none asked as to why their own rep and the Chinese rep just made their pre-prepared statements and scooted out, without taking any questions! And this when the Indian rep not only took his time answering all questions, including from Paki reporters, but he also .. very calmly .. gave a very polite middle finger to Pakis and Cheenis by reiterating that all that Pakistan needs to do is stop terror and India will talk!

Of course, they could never do it, esp after their own Prime Minister had made an all too public call for jihad just a few days ago! Then more details trickled in – the ‘informal’ meeting had been a disaster for Pakis and their Cheeni masters!

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(LINK to above report)

No no .. UK supported us, crowed Pakis!

And voila, UK too decided it was time to clarify things!

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Then yet another joker in the Govt of Pakistan tweeted, thanking Maldives, Sri Lanka & Bangladesh for their support. They too replied, saying LIAR LIAR (BROWN) PANTS ON FIRE!

To cut a long story short, they’ve tried everything .. and failed. Even the US has clarified that there will be no mediation. All that they have succeeded in doing is to win the hashtags campaigns on Twitter, and symbolic nonsense such as observing 15th Aug as black day.

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But then, as any sane person would ask, why don’t they stop?

Well, the caveat here is ‘sanity’ .. and no one ever accused Pakis of that!

I get a feeling that they simply cannot stop, even if they wanted to. Such is the hysteria that they’ve created. Their own public will hang them on the nearest lamp-post if they say that they’ve done what they can and nothing more can be done. And knowing that this GOI will not even give them a fig leaf of even a notion of victory, they simply don’t know what next!

On the contrary, Indians are talking about PoK, of all places!

And then there was the innocuous little statement about the NFU policy by the Indian Raksha Mantri.

Bottomline: The oft milked Paki threat of irrational behaviour no longer works.

So what do they do?

Well, they ratchet it up a few notches. None less than their delusional, selected prime minister threatens a nuclear war. Take that, you Indians!

Well, the Indians say nothing. And neither does the world.

All that the Pakis see is a big YAAAAAWN by all concerned!

So what comes next? Well, that is a million dollar question, isn’t it? Let me share the tweet quoted in the beginning of this blog once again.

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After crying themselves hoarse, there is no way that the Pakis will NOT do anything. They simply cannot afford to. Like I mentioned some time ago, what this ‘something’ might be is a matter of intense speculation.

Their best bet is to do something within their borders. Maybe boot out Imran Khan for his ‘failure’ at getting a favourable international opinion.

It works in their favour ‘coz the Brown Panted ones will not have to worry about getting whooped on the LC / IB once again!

Who knows, maybe this is why Imran Khan is so hyper these days – to save his own job!

But, what I feel more likely is some sort of visible action within India – a terror attack, maybe. This time targetting civilians. It could be in the hinterland, or it could be in, say Jammu.

The best outcome for Pakis would be media attention, plus a bonus if India cannot use it as a reason for any cross border action. And maybe in preparation for that, they have already started loudly hinting at possible false flag operation within by Indian agencies themselves.

In case it comes to pass, they will be praying feverishly that no birds of prey come visiting another Balakot, because .. well .. having spun the 27 Feb fiasco into a splendid ‘victory’, atleast on SM, they KNOW that this time the Indian response would be much different.

All in all, they don’t know how to satiate the blood-lust of their crazed populace. Heck, even their Arab masters are playing a different tune- even felicitating Modi! Imagine the average Paki’s feelings!

It’s a vicious circle that the Paki establishment has created for itself.

A circle, from which it is difficult to emerge unscathed.

A circle, which only grows more vicious as their economy falls to newer depths.

A circle, which only grows more vicious citizenry discovers that their nation is merely impotent entity whose pleadings summarily discarded.

No wonder that the powers that rule Pakistan have to keep coming up with newer ways to prevent the anger from spilling over into their streets. Hence this 30 minute standing for solidarity every Friday!

But what happens when the awam starts asking as to why isn’t it working?

What happens when the mango Paki starts asking as to why India still hasn’t reinstated Article 370?

What happens when the mango Paki starts asking as to why the PAF doesn’t go and ‘teach Indians another lesson’ like they did on 27th Feb?

I am sure that there are important heads in Rawalpindi already wargaming such scenarios, and their possible reactions. I am also sure that they are waiting anxiously for the next FATF session to see how much they can get away with, esp after the recent APG thappad!

And I am also sure that they don’t know what to do next.

What this will turn into is yet another irrational response, which will invite yet another Indian response which will spell more disaster for them. Hence my speculation about something during the Oct – Jan window.

Now why Oct – Jan?

Well, it just came instinctively, without much thought.

But let me try and justify it, with the benefit of hindsight.

Firstly, monsoons in Punjab will be over and the battlefields more conducive to large scale manoeuvres as in 1971.

Secondly, the FATF sword hanging over the Pakis will have gone, whichever way it goes.

Thirdly, I think they can keep their awam ‘amused’ for about another month before they too run out of ideas of how to keep doing it.

Fourthly, maybe this is by then they will finally come up with yet another ‘brilliant’ plan! (Talking about this, let me leave this 6.5 years old tweet here for you)

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So brace yourselves, fellow Indians, for the Brown Panted ones are in ‘heat’ once again. They WILL be forced to do something.

What form it takes, remains to be seen.

One gent has already gone on record saying ‘India started it, we will finish it’.

To that gent, let me just tell him that it has ALWAYS been Pakistan that has ended it – by waving the white flag!

Let me conclude this blog by sincerely wishing Imran Khan that he completes his full term! 

On the events in Pakistan in the Aftermath of Revocation of Article 370

Folks, sharing some thoughts on the reactions across the border ever since the Home Minister announced the abrogation of Article 370, and with it, 35A earlier this week.

But first, let me tell you a story ..

There once was a brown coloured dog, living in the slums adjoining a relatively posh locality. Short statured, but he was still the leader of his pack of mongrels because .. well .. he had the loudest bark!

He had the best of all things that his mongrel followers could salvage. This made him grow fatter and fatter (or as we say in Hindi – Chhota Mota Kutta!), even as his mongrels grew more and more lean.

Now this Brown Majesty had a serious problem with the well fed hounds inside the posh society right across the road. So serious was his problem with them that every once in a while he would send in one of his mongrels to wage jihad across the road into that posh society. Needless to say, no mongrel ever returned from that jihad.

Every once in a while, just to show his mongrels how macho he is, the Brown Majesty would gingerly step on the road & start barking at the hounds across. This would inevitably bring out loud cheers from his mongrel followers because .. well .. he had a really loud bark indeed!

The hounds, though, were hardly impressed by Brown Majesty’s bark & ignored him with the contempt he deserved. Every once in a while, though one of the hounds would let out a low growl, sending Brown Majesty quivering like a leaf.

But quite a grateful leaf he turned out to be!

Grateful, because you see, the low growl was only audible to him & him alone!
None of his mongrel followers could hear it!

Thank God .. err .. Allah, for small mercies, eh? 😅

To his mongrels, he seemed inconquerable!

His stories of ‘valour’ were Legen .. wait for it .. Dary!

Every day, as his own slum drowned in misery, Shri Brown Majesty would promise his fellow mongrels that great riches awaited them once they crossed the road under his leadership and took over the posh locality across!

None of the mongrels, though, asked him – Janab pehle bhi toh aap gaye the uss paar, lekin jeete bina wapis kyon aa gaye?

You know why?

Because he had taught them since their puppy days, that he had been benevolent towards the hounds and let them live out of sheer magnanimity!

Wah Janab, Wah!, were the fawning responses of his mongrels each and every time.

And the mongrels kept trying to enter the posh locality, trying to liberate it from the hounds who were oppressing the occupants within, apparently.

Yet, entering the locality was a difficult task. You see, the posh locality had just a single gate for entry, and the hounds posted to guard the gate were ruthlessly professional.

Until one day .. when they left the gate intentionally open!

Not just that, they sat coolly, almost as if daring the Brown Majesty to ‘show them’!

Janab, Janab, gate khulla hai .. jaaiye aur unn saale hounds ko nestonabood kar deejiye!
Phir hum achha achha khana kayenge!, yelped the excited mongrels.

But it had been really difficult to tell him this. 

He was ‘resting’ behind a bush and hadn’t been easy to find, you see!

Suddenly one of the mongrels noticed something.

Arre Janab, aap yeh paani mein kyon baithe hain?

Thank God they think it is water and not something else, thought General Brown Majesty, thanking his stars.

Any guesses what he did next?

As of now, even I am not sure what General Brown Majesty did next, since the situation is still developing. All I know is that he is still barking a nervous bark, much to the joy and ecstasy of his mongrel followers!

Since I don’t know how Shri Brown Majesty’s story will pan out in the coming days, let me talk about a totally ‘UNRELATED‘ issue – the current dance of headless chickens in Islamabad / Rawalpindi!

There too, some folks are behaving like a dog who used to keep chasing after cars, until the day he actually caught one!

Now he doesn’t know what to do with it!

So allow me to share some thoughts on the clusterfcuk the Brown Panted ones now find themselves in!

Oh, btw, a disclaimer – Any resemblance between the current state of Shri Brown Majesty of that slum and the Brown Panted ones of Pakistan is purely intentional.

Phew .. Glad I clarified this, lest someone get confused! 😁

You are welcome 🙏

Ok, so let me come to why the Brown Panted ones find themselves in this mess.

One simple answer – They are all Bark and no Bite. Read that previous statement again

(Once again, plz try and don’t confuse them with Shri Brown Majesty, PLEASE!)

To be fair, it is not a sin to be thus.
Everyone in the world knows it.
Heck, even they themselves know it!
But there is a small problem ..

You see, their mongrels .. err, sorry .. awam doesn’t know it!

The Brown Panted ones through their Propagandu department under the ‘brilliant’ Propagandu-in-Chief, and their danda that keeps the mongrels .. err.. citizens firmly under their thumb have brilliantly ensured this!

An ever defeated army still rules the country, or whatever is left of it since 1971. Not just that, it is worshipped like demi-gods too!

You know why?

Well because they have practically erased all their defeats from the collective mindsets of their populace!

As per the lies fed to their zombie populace, 1947-48 was a fantastic victory wherein they ‘liberated’ nearly 1/3rd of J&K. No one asks them why in the world were they forever in retreat once the Khalsas of 1 Sikh engaged them at Pattan.

1965 was yet another brilliant military victory, I kid you not! None however, asks them about failure of Op Gibraltar, or GrandSlam, or the fact that their Patton equipped Armoured Div got destroyed at Asal Uttar, or that Indians came calling nearly 20km deep in Chawinda!

All that those poor sods have been fed by their Brown Panted ones is that not only was it a spectacular victory, but even the Roohani Taqats were with them.

Don’t believe me?

Check out this screenshot below!

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Then came 1971.

Now this was the Brown Pants’ BESTEST performance to date. No, not on the battlefield, but instead, over their own awam!

They stepped back in favour of Bhutto Saheb, and then when time was ripe, they hanged him!

Masterstroke, I tell you!

And what about the very obvious military defeat, you asked? Well, the current generation of Pakis KNOWS that it was the Bengalis who sold out, else Pakistan would NEVER have broken apart. No one asks about Operation Searchlight or the elections of 1970, mind you!

Take that, you Hindu India!

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Oh, and the 93K prisoners of war too is a fake story. The actual figure was far far less than that, as per an average Paki.

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However, STILL won’t question as to why his own Pakistan released this stamp below, mind you! You know why, because that was done by Bhutto.

Good riddance, no?

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Ah, and then came Kargil! When the Brown Panted ones were just ABOUT to liberate Kashmir, but were betrayed by Nawaz Sharif!

Yes, that is what the Brown Panted ones have made into the national discourse in the Land of the Pure!

Ask anyone out there!

Oh, and Kasab of 26/11 fame?

Duh!

He was an Indian of course. Didn’t you see the saffron dhaga on his wrist, hainji? And this Paki even knows he was praying to Hindu Gods. And then he was made ‘quite’ by hanging him.

Take that, you kuffars!

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Let me now fast forward to the Balakot strike and the days that followed.

Ok, so Balakot.

Well, Propagandu-in-Chief was very clear – three trees and one crow killed. Rest all ok!

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Read more about that day here in THIS short blog, based on a twitter thread tweeted that very morning by yours truly!

To cut a long story short, Balakot and its aftermath was yet another SPECTACULAR victory for the Brown Pants and their Air Force buddies. Heck, their Navy too won ‘bigly’ by successfully hiding its Agosta submarine for a full TEN DAYS before she was discovered!

But therein lay a problem. And one which has come back to bite them in their brown South Asian bums – You see the ‘victory’, though spectacular, was limited ONLY & EXCLUSIVELY to social media!

Pakis will confidently tell u that all that IAF bombed in Balakot was trees & a crow. And on the next day when their INVINCIBLE abomination of an air force came seeking revenge, they ‘deliberately’ missed all targets. In addition, they also shot down a MiG 21 and a Su30 MKI.

Yes, you can read that last sentence again.

Apparently, we also lost a Sukhoi that day!

Oh, and what about the F16 they lost, you asked?
Well, What F16, hainji? is the reply you will get!
Of course, no Paki will ask why the Propagandu-in-Chief got so excited that he evacuated the ‘truth’ prematurely! Here’s a video of the same!
(And yes, I used ‘evacuated’ on purpose)

Just watch the video below from 1:36 mark

So, moving on to the current week.

Now that the hounds of the posh locality have left the gate open (remember, the story of Brown Majesty? 😀), the Brown Pants don’t know what to do. All that bombast that they have fed their awam has suddenly become a liability!

The average Paki is hopping mad against India at the best of the times, but now, in light of what happened earlier this week, nothing less than a defeated & humiliated India will satisfy them.

If only they knew the actual reason why their fauj STILL wears Brown Pants even after all these years!

It’s been four days already and still the Brown Pants haven’t unfurled the Paki flag in Lal Chowk.

It’s been four days already and still the PAF has not gone across and destroyed the IAF.

It’s been four days already and still the PN has not bombed Dwarka.

It’s been four days already and still the Paki Govt has not closed Paki airspace for Indian aircraft.

It’s been four days already and still their Brown Pants haven’t nuked the hell out of India, or atleast her dams.

Ye ho kya raha hai BC, is the refrain all around!

Am I kidding by writing what I wrote above, you asked?

HELL NO!

Here’s a sample from one of the most ‘respected’ Paki ‘think tanks’ or ‘discussion forums’ on the www! Plz read this Paki’s ‘demands’ carefully.
And be scared.

VERY SCARED!

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In case you wish to see the above for yourself & the ‘extremely serious’ discussion that those ‘gentlemen’ are indulged in, just do a google search of the text in the screenshot. That ‘think-tank’, btw, I assume is being run under direct tutelage of Shri Propagandu-in-Chief.

THIS, folks, is what they have brought upon themselves.

THIS, folks, is the reason they are dancing the dance of headless chickens.

THIS, folks, is why I believe that the civilian govt will end up taking the flak for the failures of Brown Pants once again.

Read this book, btw.

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But, they absolutely HAVE to do something, else their own awam will drag them out of their mansions and onto the nearest lamp posts, thanks to the relentless propagandu fed to them. So here is what I presume will be happening in the coming few days!

Firstly, they have already hinted that US plans for a draw-down in Afghanistan might face reduced ‘cooperation’. But knowing the current US administration, I’m sure there will be less indulgence and more spanking this time to get their job done.

Secondly, they are still running around in circles about the airspace ban. Of course they can do it again, despite having opened it up just a couple of weeks ago. But, the bhikhari Nation may not be able to sustain the loss in revenues by overflight charges for long!

So what CAN we do, must be the ques doing rounds in Rawalpindi, because .. well .. who cares about what PM Imran thinks, no? 😀

Of course they can ‘internationalize’ the issue!

Heck, they had even packed away the loudmouth Foreign Minister Qureshi to Saudi for that, remember?

Oh, and UN too.

Yes, UN and OIC and .. wait .. yes .. and ICJ.

Yes, let us go to them all!

(Btw, Nawaz must be laughing in his jail cell at the thought of his statement of Dehati Aurat!)

Well, boo fcuking hoo fcukers!

The awam will not be quite ‘amused’ at this.

Far from it.

The awam wants blood.
And they want it as of yesterday.

But the Brown Pants know something that the awam does not – Most of the blood that will flow in case of a military confrontation will be theirs and not Indians’.

THIS they will never allow to happen. After all, who will pay for the stitching of all those new brown uniforms, hainji? THAT is why they have refused to even pick up their dead soldiers’ bodies still rotting on the LoC.

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So what other options do they have?
The Beggar-in-Chief Imran Khan has already hinted to the possibility of another Pulwama type attack.

Then there is the possibility of a communal riot, something on the lines of 2002 Gujarat Riots.

The Gujarat riots happened at a very convenient time for Pakis, something which is often overlooked.
Parakram was on.
The pressure on the borders was huge.
And voila!
Riots!
Army formations rushed back from borders to quell those!
Just a conspiracy theory, no?

But then, will even a riot satisfy the bloodlust of the Paki awam?
NO WAY!
Not with they trending #KashmirParFinalFight and #PakArmyRetaliateAgainstIndia on twitter!

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But knowing the reputation of this govt, what with two surgical strikes and the Balakot strike, they cannot be sure of how India might retaliate. And then there’s the problem of how THEY will retaliate against the Indian retaliation!

You see the problem?

It is not the cluster bombs that India supposedly used across the LoC.
No Sir.
It is, instead, the cluster-fcuk that the Brown Pants find themselves in.
They will dare not poke the hounds across the road.
Because they don’t know how they will react.

It is an ironical twist of fate – the ownership of ‘contrived irrationality’ has been taken away from the Pakis and securely held by Indians now.

Liquid Oxygen analogy comes to mind.

Like I said earlier in this blog, I still don’t know how they will be forced to react!

Yes, I qualify it saying ‘forced to’ react because the emotionally charged awam is likely to lead them into something stupid. Now whether that happens outside their borders or within remains to be seen.

All the best Imran Khan Saab!

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On the Events Currently Underway in Jammu and Kashmir (As on 04 Aug 2019)

(The content of this blog were tweeted as on 03 – 04 Aug 2019. Any events from 5th Aug onwards will be talked about in subsequent blog posts!)

Ok folks, since everyone is talking / speculating about what is happening in Kashmir, let me add my own thoughts and speculations to the mix!

Firstly, let us be very clear, we didn’t reach the current situation in the past week, or month, or the past year. Far from it. The genesis of the Indo-Pak Kashmir imbroglio lies in the breach of the standstill agreement by the Dominion of Pakistan way back in 1947. Kashmir was doomed from the moment Paki army sent in its non-uniformed foot soldiers into the state and after a few initial, dispersed skirmishes, captured & raped Muzaffarabad on 22 Oct 1947, followed by the capture & rape of Baramula a few days later.

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Maharaja of Kashmir soon acceded to India to ward off the looming threat to Srinagar at hands of those bandicoots mustered and sent in to do the dirty work on behalf of the Khakis, who were virtually running the Paki Foreign policy even in that nascent stage of Pakistan’s life.

Btw, even the Sheikh Abdullah led NC endorsed the entry of the Indian Army in the fray.

The First Kashmir War was on!

I tweeted the chronology of the war some years ago. Here’s the first of the approx 7500 tweets, for those interested – LINK

The line that came to be known as the LoC was more or less drawn by the time the war ended. Pakis tried it again in 1965 – sending in ‘freedom fighters’ to instigate a war of ‘independence’. Too bad the ordinary Kashmiris refused to buy this premise!

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(LINK to above tweet for those interested)

Fast forward to 1989, and with the Paki Faujis on a high, having ‘defeated’ a superpower in Afghanistan, channelized the ‘expertise’ they had gained, into Kashmir. The Kashmir ‘insurgency’ was on, and with it, the genocide of Kashmiri Pandits.

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(Pandits Leave Kashmir Within 2 Days – Alsafa, Apr 14, 1990)

But the Indian Army once again got its act together and soon was dispatching the ‘liberators’ by their dozens. By the time the 90s’ decade was coming to a close, the Paki fauj’s dreams of ‘liberating’ Kashmir was well and truly shattered.

And then came the nuke tests, and with those, a renewed ‘confidence’ and a Paki Army Chief who fancied himself as a true ‘Ghazi’. Kargil and thereabouts went up in flames once again. Talking of Musharraf, I’ll just leave a screenshot of THIS tweet here!

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Bottomline – Pakis, more specifically the Brown Panted ones, have been having wet dreams about ‘liberating’ Kashmir since long.

They’ve tried every trick in their books, and failed each and every time.

However, what has encouraged them to keep going at it, has been a pragmatic India. Pragmatism has worked well for India. And it shows, in the trajectories the two countries have taken lately – India about to land on the moon, and Pakistan .. well .. no words need be said about them.

The game has been predictable thus far – Pakis throwing what they think is a googly, and India sending it out of the stadium.

So what has changed this time round?

Well .. what has changed is a political setup in Delhi that is not quite .. err .. ‘amused’ by Paki shenanigans. The first example of this was given far away from the LoC when the first major, and publicised cross border strike took place in Myanmar.

Now Pakis being Pakis, they knew they had a दाढ़ी में तिनका! This tweet exemplifies the unease they felt deeeeeeeep within!

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Of course, soon after the Uri attack happened, the ‘unease’ grew more, though hidden behind false bravado typical of the Paki gentry!

Of course, they had no answer but to block simple folks on this side of the border when the Indian Army came calling in the aftermath!

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Let us now fast forward to what is happening today. I’d say that the events leading up to today commenced from the Pulwama / Balakot episode. The IAF coming calling on the JeM fuckers deep inside Pakistan came as a rude shock!

Of course, all that ‘brave talk’ meant that Pakis couldn’t just back off!

India had to be ‘taught a lesson’.

And that lesson happened soon enough, the very next day. Only that it didn’t go as planned!

The ‘invincible’ JF-17s stayed far away, at a safe distance while the eight F-16s took a blind shot at the two IAF Su-30s. They fired a grand total of FIVE AMRAAMs at max range.

And then they turned tail!

They knew the Sukhois were not to be messed with.

Needless to say, all that they achieved was 5 AMRAAMs wasted!

Little did they know that Wing Commander Abhinandan in his MiG 21 was about to shove an R-73 up the backside of their leader’s F-16!

Well, atleast they won the Propagandu Warfare in the days that followed!

Will come to that in a while.

Then came the general elections in India, and the return of the govt with an even greater majority. Which brings me to the events currently underway in the Valley.

I’d say it began with the news of deployment of about 10,000 additional CAPF troopers into the Valley.

Let me repeat that figure once again – TEN THOUSAND.

You know the significance of this figure?

Let me tell you how significant it is – NONE WHATSOEVER!

You know why I say so?

Because if we believe the Paki and Hurriyat Propagandus, India already has 700,000 troops in Kashmir! What difference will a mere 10,000 more make is a question no one thought of asking – Heck, it is a mere 1.4% accretion!

Let us analyze what is happening today.

Oh, wait, NO ONE KNOWS what is happening!

THAT is the beauty of today’s situation. What is the govt’s intention, no one knows. And this is what is causing all the randi-rona all over – ppl simply assuming the ‘worst’ (atleast for them)!

To them, all I’ll do is ask, ‘How’s the Khauf?’!!

That is the beauty of psy ops – keep ’em guessing! Capabilities cannot be hidden, but intentions can be. That is exactly what the GOI is doing. And Pakis don’t know how to react, or what to tell their lackeys in the Valley!

So what happens next?

Well, who knows?!!

So let me add my own speculations to the list!

But before moving to speculating about future developments, let me just go over some things that have transpired in the recent past. The most important, and major event was the visit by the Beggar-in-Chief and the de-facto brown panted ruler of Pakistan to the US.

The biggest event of the ‘highly successful’ visit was the US President telling the Beggar-in-Chief in his face that they were ungrateful bastards – taking American money and then actively working against American interests!

But the airwaves were seized by another ‘offer’!

It was the offer by Shri Donald Ji to mediate on the Kashmir Issue ‘IF BOTH COUNTRIES ASKED FOR IT’.

Well, who cares about the fine print in the Land of the Pure, hainji? Out came the dhols and with that, the bhangra troupes! ‘WE WON, WE WON!‘, were the chants all around!

But no one seemed to ask, ‘Oye BC, what exactly did we win?’!

Well, Boo Fcuking Hoo, birathers – There never was, and never will be any Indian acquiescence to any offer of third party mediation. That has been the party line in India since long.

But then why did the POTUS make this offer?

As per him, he & Modi had discussed Kashmir in one of their recent discussions. Indian MEA was very clear that no mediation thing was discussed. Well, Trump Ji may be excused for missing that out since he is a very busy man indeed!

But it may be fair to assume that Kashmir might indeed have been discussed. So, coming back to the POTUS’ offer of mediation – let me just put out a conspiracy theory – What if some years down the line, it turns out to be a trap, even if unintended?

Let me elaborate upon that a bit. With yet another IMF loan in bag (even if the bag itself is so full of leaking holes!) and the POTUS himself offering to ‘mediate’, just imagine the warm wetness that the brown panted ones in Rawalpindi must be feeling in their favourite spot!

Time & circumstances must’ve been considered ripe for yet another incident to ‘rock the boat’ in Kashmir, so to say. But, what form might that take, they wondered. Especially since another retaliatory strike on Balakot was out of question, because .. well .. ye to ho chuka hai!

Oh, my bad, the Balakot strike wan’t a retaliatory one, but a ‘Pre-Emptive’ one, satisfying yours truly who had dreamed about such a strike many many moons ago, on 25 Oct 2015!

Don’t believe me?

Well, HERE’S the tweet and down below is a screenshot of it!

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So, this time too, the Brown Pants were deliberating upon what should they do, and what might India do in return, when India did something pre-emptive yet again! Additional troops were moved into the Valley in anticipation of an imminent threat!

And just like that, the Brown Pants became a tad bit more browner!

Had their plans already been leaked?

Heck, did they even have a plan ready?

What was the GOI planning?

What should we do?

How would the US react?

But most importantly, if some attack happens now, Indian already has a justification to whoop their a$$es once again! Heck, going by the Balakot doctrine, India may not even wait for an attack to materialize before going pre-emptive yet again!

Heck, they had no clue whatsoever! And dare I say, they still don’t!

In fact, no one does!

Then, right on cue, the LoC lit up once again, and this time, for a change, the Neelam Valley too got a taste of the ‘good old 90s’!

The Propagandu-in-Chief and his keyboard warriors had their work cut out – how to spin this to their advantage. But then, no matter how much lipstick you put on a pig, at the end of the day it remains just that – a pig!

And given their reputation, or more specifically, lack of it, no amount of propagandu from the much vaunted ISPR is getting any traction anywhere in the world!

Except within the Land of the Pure itself!

Fanboys and Fangirls are swooning over the Propagandu-in-Chief himself, egging him on – Bhai Ghafoora Aage Badho, Hum Tumhare Saath Hain! But Ghafoora jayega kahan? He has no clue what his arch enemy is upto!

And in any case, he’s been too busy retweeting ‘Hai Hai Modi’ tweets from Indian ‘seculars’ from his personal handle, to be able to devote much ‘energies’ to much else!

So the Brown Pants did what they could, to find out Indian intentions, because .. well .. they have no clue!

In came the willing and unsuspecting draftees to the cause – some definitely on their payroll, and others by just being the argumentative Indian!

Politicos were soon yelling bloody murder, not knowing who had died!

Didn’t work.

All they got were videos of the Indian Home Minister smiling and talking in recent Parliament Session doing rounds on WhatsApp!

Then came, amongst so many others, the star journo herself, the best of the lot, asking the same question, demanding info .. nay .. communication!

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That she has been accused in the past for allegedly unwittingly leaking operational information to the enemy during Kargil & 26/11, did not matter one bit. GOI owes it to the public to pre-announce what it is gearing up to do, even at the cost of jeopardizing its plans, right?

Anyhow, that too failed. The silence from the GOI has been deafening indeed! So the Propagandu-in-Chief played the next best and perhaps his most ‘intelligent’ move so far – he tweeted this tweet from Shri Geelani’s handle!

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My first reaction upon seeing this tweet was – WOAH, SUCH IMPECCABLE ENGLISH!! No wonder Geelani Saheb is so respected all around!

Too bad, I’ve never come across any video of him actually conversing in this language, though!

But then I suddenly remembered another thing – An Afghan Taliban Spokesman tweeting some shit, supposedly from within Afghanistan, but with location showing Sindh, Pakistan instead!

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But then, Pakis have never harboured Afghan Taliban on their soil! No Sir! Even Donald Ji was wrong on that account when he openly said so to the Beggar-in-Chief himself! Of course, the Taliban joker yelled – CONSPIRACY, and deleted the tweet! Here’s a Paki news report LINK to that story.

But Propagandu-in-Chief and his department had learnt their lessons well! Geelani Saheb’s 135 odd tweets, in Urdu and his signature style of impeccable English, are all without any geo-location tags!

Well done, he said as he patted himself!

Yet Geelani Ji’s tweet failed to mobilize the Ummah against Indian plans for the ‘Biggest Genocide in History of Mankind’. It too turned out to be a damp squib. Brown Pants were relieved – they didn’t want their record of East Pak genocide broken! (Hint: Google Op Searchlight)

Talk about small mercies, eh? 😅
But then, WHAT is India up to?
That question still remains, as does the question as to WHEN will it be done!
Let me speculate on the second question first.

Remember, the 1998 nuclear tests were pended till such time the then President returned from a visit abroad? Well this time too, the President was out of country. But good news! He returned back early today morning!

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So the question of WHEN has been partially answered by me.
You are welcome!
Now comes the big question – WHAT?
Let me speculate a bit on that now.

Their ‘tool’ measuring contests and bombast notwithstanding, Brown Pants know quite well what the Indian Armed Forces are capable of, given political will. Heck, they are the reason that Pakistan has one extra High Commission – in Dhaka!

In fact, one interesting nugget that I came across when reading this book quoted below is that the author says that he actually saw IAF jets kilometres inside Pakistan over South Punjab in the immediate aftermath of 26/11 Mumbai attacks!

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So what happens now? Well, to put it very briefly, I’d say ‘Who Knows!’

But there are indeed a few options that I can foresee.

Firstly, abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A.

Secondly, high profile arrests of ‘big’ players – both political as well as separatist.

Thirdly, trifurcation of the state. Fourthly, an attack on Pakistan across the LoC itself.

And lastly, nothing! The GOI can just say that the Amarnath pilgrims are back safely and additional forces are moving out! Now wouldn’t THAT be a classical ‘Dhappa’?!!

Let me share a few thoughts on these options.
(I know this blog is getting much longer than I anticipated, but bear with me!)

First: Abrogation of Articles 370/35A.
Well, will do a different blog on that soon.
But I’ll leave a screenshot of this 6yr old tweet here.

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Coming to the second scenario – Likely high profile arrests.
But for that, let me take you to the USA of 1932 first. A certain gent who went by the name of Al Capone was imprisoned for 11 years for tax evasion.

Now why I bring Shri Capone in this blog, you asked?

Well, that is because he was a dreaded Mafia Boss who had covered his tracks well, and there was hardly any legally admissible evidence against him for any other charge to stick!

And in he went!

On a not so unrelated note, I will just remind you of the recent investigations into a major bank in J&K, in which many of the big names are facing uncomfortable questions, some of them as guests of the Enforcement Directorate!

Of course, some other ‘key’ players are already behind bars for money laundering, thanks to the NIA! And frantic pleas, by their wives and an assortment of Pakis, both brown-panted and otherwise, have failed to move the ‘heartless’ Indian State!

I’ll just leave it at that.

Now coming on to the other hot issue of Trifurcation of the state.
First, let me put out a map of J&K to offer some perspective.

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There are a few very distinct geographical divisions in the State, thanks to natural geography as also current political realities.

The Kashmir Valley, if you see, makes up for a very minuscule part of J&K’s real estate.

Then there is Jammu.

Next come the areas North of ZojiLa Pass – Dras, Kargil and Ladakh.

This more or less sums up India controlled territory.

Further East of Ladakh is the Aksai Chin, under Chinese control since the mid 1950s.
Now, let’s talk about areas of J&K under Paki control. The thin sliver of land that you see from Muzaffarabad to Mirpur is what actually comprises PoK.
Yup, Kashmir is more or less entirely with India.

A big chunk of the J&K State is the Gilgit – Baltistan area. Pakis have tried their damned best to constitutionally detach it from J&K, but then again, their constitution hardly matters when it comes to Indian claim.

Lastly, is the Shaksgam Valley, ceded by Pakis to China as they jumped into the Chinese bed .. err .. camp, in the immediate aftermath of the 1962 Sino-India war. Of course the 1963 agreement between Pakistan and China states that it is a temporary measure, pending a final resolution on Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Technicalities, eh? 🙂

So that is J&K in legal and cartographic terms. In technical terms, though, and in language that Chinese understand, here’s another 6 yr old tweet!

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Ok, back to trifurcation.
Well that applies merely to India administered J&K, atleast for the time being.
I don’t know how many of you have noticed, but whenever there is any news of J&K, it is merely Kashmir that is mentioned.
Hardly anyone talks about Jammu and Ladakh.

Heck, even the Pakis call it as India Occupied Kashmir!

No concerns whatsoever with Jammu / Ladakh!

THIS, folks, is what justifies trifurcation, in a nutshell. Will not get into legalities – constitutional or otherwise, but all I will say is that J&K is actually three different states. To that end, I’ll leave a screenshot of this five year old tweet here.

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So, what might trifurcation look like?

Well, different ppl are offering different solutions / scenarios. What I would prefer is Jammu as a different state and Kashmir and Ladakh as Union Territories.

I know some folks may not agree with me, but well, that’s my preference! Kashmir as a UT will help mitigate local political ideologies from messing up the situation to some extent. In case of Ladakh, it is too sparsely populated and may be best administered as a UT.

Btw, something tells me that Pakis too are somewhat assured that trifurcation is what India is looking at.

Why, you asked?

Well because the Propagandu-in-Chief, as far as I know, for the first time has used the term India Occupied J&K instead of the usual crap of IOK! Let me put out a disclaimer – it is mere speculation on my part, but still!

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Moving on, next possible outcome is an attack across the LoC itself. Well, partly, it has been happening already for the past few days when out of the blue came a report of massive CAPs by both air forces. Then came the reports of intense artillery exchanges.

It all reached a crescendo till the capstone visuals shared by the Brown Pants’ Propagandu Warriors – Neelum Valley under attack!

Too bad, no sympathies came their way!

So what might a proper attack across the LoC comprise?

Let’s speculate a bit on that.

Options are varied. These could range from tactical realignment to gain local advantages to a spectacular but localized op to capture a strategically valuable piece of real estate across!

It might also mean a continued pounding of Paki positions across the length of the LoC with a two-fold aim – let the average Paki see the body bags of his beloved and invincible Brown Panted soldiers come back home (after all, for how long can they hide casualties on the LoC by saying they died in KPK / Balochistan et al?).

The other outcome is rapid depletion of ammo stocks of Beggaristan. It is a very real possibility. Remember the Pakis desperately crying for ceasing artillery fire exchanges in the aftermath of Pulwama / Balakot?

Of course their ammo stocks won’t run out. They never can. Especially when the Brown Pants have first dibs on whatever little revenue their selected government earns! But yes, Beggaristan will continue to frantically keep looking for fresh bheekh! Suits me, to be frank!

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Last option – DHAPPA!

We Do Nothing!

I know it doesn’t seem to sit well with many people. And that includes me too. But it is worth analyzing nonetheless. What do we achieve by just scaling down after a while?

Might we have averted a major attack? Or a major planned law and order situation? We will never know about it until someone in the know of things ultimately writes / talks about it.

So be it.

In any case, the Brown Pants had just returned to their barracks after a prolonged mobilization post the Pulwama / Balakot incident, and I think they are out yet again. Even a precautionary mobilization costs money – something that Beggaristan has in extremely short supply!

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In any case, don’t think Pakis will escape unhurt either. Their pain is real enough. However the Brown Panted ones are stoic folks. If they can disown hundreds of their soldiers in Kargil, a mere five more is just small change, no?

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And to put icing on the cake, Indian Army will be forced to purchase Paki flags and burn crucial calories to bury their abandoned Brown Panted cannon fodder, just like they did in Kargil (MUST SEE the 3 min video below)! Propagandu Wins!

That is as far as the options go, atleast in my opinion. But knowing the GOI of today, they might be thinking on some other line altogether!

What I found interesting recently is this tweet by the Beggar-in-Chief.

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So the UN Resolution is back in circulation!

Let me share some thoughts on that. The resolution has been superseded by the 1972 Simla Agreement wherein both countries have committed to resolving the issue BILATERALLY. This has been a consistent stand of the GOI.

But then, let us grant Pakis their few moments of hubris.

So what does the resolution entail?

Well, it does call for plebiscite, just as Beggar-in-Chief has been crying for.

So how does the plebiscite happen, you asked?

The condition for plebiscite is that ALL PAKI FORCES / NATIONALS WITHDRAW FROM THE TERRITORIAL LIMITS OF J&K STATE!

I would love to see the day when someone from the GOI actually takes Pakis up on that offer and asks them to withdraw! The dance of headless chickens in Islamabad / Rawalpindi will surely be a treat to watch!

Let us suppose that in a hypothetical scenario, Pakis actually do that and withdraw. What comes next?

Well, demography comes next!

With Articles 370 & 35A, however flawed they may be, India has ensured that franchise in its part of J&K rests with original / native inhabitants. But when it comes to PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakis have ensured a steady influx of Punjabis and Pashtoons who have settled there for good.

Heck, as far as Gilgit-Baltistan goes, there is a full fledged genocide of the natives underway, since they are Shias!

Very little news trickles out of there, but there still is some that worms its way into the www. Here’s one such LINK

A good and concise writeup. Chronicles the role of a certain Brigadier Pervez Musharraf in brutally putting down a Shia revolt in 1988.

So the question remains, in case of a plebiscite who gets to vote on the Paki side.
On Indian side too, the franchise of Kashmiri Pandits will matter as well.

Oh, and what about the residents of Shaksgam Valley?!!

Bottomline: Plebiscite is good rhetoric, but unimplementable!

So here’s a ‘Boo Fucking Hoo’ to the Beggar-in-Chief and his wet dreams of a plebiscite, Trump or no Trump! In fact, I am veering round to the belief that Trump’s offer of mediation might not have come as quite the surprise, atleast in some quarters in GOI!

As I go towards concluding this blog post, let me also add another speculation – We are seeing what we are seeing. There is no doubt about that. In fact, everyone is trying to make some sense of that.

BUT Are we seeing what we are NOT seeing?

Read the above question once again.

So what do I mean by that?

Let me just say that even though the Kargil War was fought almost exclusively North of Pir Panjal, a few weeks later, the Paki Navy Chief, of all people, had to resign!

Interesting, no?

Here’s a link about what the Indian Navy was up to, during Kargil War, in case you are interested – The silent sentinel

Now fast forward to 28 Feb 2019 to the Tri-Services press conference after India successfully ‘convinced’ Terroristan to release Wing Commander Abhinandan. Anyone remember, the Naval Officer out there? Here’s the LINK to the screenshot below of a tweet I posted that day

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Now take your minds to a few weeks ago when news came that Indian Navy took a while to detect the lone Paki Navy Agosta Sub, ultimately finding it hidden close to the Makran coast.

Remember that news?

No?

Just google it!

And the Pakis on social media went berserk – With Joy, mind you! Their ‘invincible’ submarine had ‘evaded detection’ for so long, you see! None asked the question as to why it was hiding AWAY from Indian coast, instead of aggressively maneuvering close to it!

This brings me to perhaps the final part of this blog – Paki Twitterati!

It might be fair to assume that though limited in penetration, Twitter in Pakistan is mostly used by the middle / upper classes who are amongst the more educated ones in Pakistan.

Now it is an interesting exercise to see how they blindly lap up all the Propagandu thrust down their throats by Shri Propagandu-in-Chief, no questions asked. It is indeed commendable for the Brown Pants to reach this stage. Of course, a ‘pliant’ school curriculum helps.

Talking about school curriculum, I had done a three part blog series on that two years ago. Here’s the link to Part 1 – State Sponsored Radicalization in Pakistan’s School Curriculum: Part 1 of 3.

Do read all three parts.

I insist!

If you thought Madrassas were incubators of hate in Pakistan, you will be shocked to see how the state has institutionalized a blinkered world view that its children grow up with.

To some extent, an army forever losing battles can be excused for replacing facts with bombast. But the Brown Pants have taken it a bit too far, I’d say.

The first example came in Kargil in 1999 when there was widespread shock and disbelief at Nawaz Sharif ‘throwing away’ a SPECTACULAR VICTORY by agreeing to a withdrawal after the July 4 meeting with Clinton!

This, when all that he had done was providing a face saving exit for his Brown Panted ones who had been honing their favourite war maneuvre in Kargil – Running away from battle!

And ironically, it was he who paid the price for it!

This time too, when the inevitable thappad comes – doesn’t matter when – the Paki Awam will once again go into shock and disbelief.

I wonder how the Propagandu Department will handle things then!

They survived Balakot and the loss of F-16 because of unashamed lies that their populace gladly lapped up. Let’s see what happens next time round, especially with own side having, hopefully, drawn good lessons from it.

With this, I come to the end of this blog post. Let me once again reiterate, no matter what happens or does not happen, fact remains that the boat has been rocked like never before.

And therein lies a victory of sorts.

Am fully expecting the other side (whether across the border, or within) to soon take a desperate step, resulting in an opening that will give some motion to the wheels of history, with or without blood.

In the end, I’ll leave you with the blog versions of four threads tweeted on Feb 14 (Pulwama Attack) Feb 26 (Balakot), Feb 27 (Abhinandan Captured) and Feb 28 (Abhinandan Released).

These are not even a fraction as long as this current blog post. So plz take some time to read them!

ON THE PULWAMA ATTACK

Thoughts on the Balakot Strike: Part 1

Thoughts on Balakot Strike: Part II – The Pakistani Response

Thoughts on the Balakot Strike: Part III – The Tri-Services Presser in New Delhi

With this, I come to an end of this blog post, folks.
Thank you for your patience.
Whatever comes next, all I’ll say is #AanDeyo!