Folks, sharing some thoughts about the currently ongoing #IranWar and how it has fundamentally changed the world as we knew it.

Let’s see how it goes ..

At the outset, I begin with the hope that Shri @Bigfoot_BC and Shri @shoonyaanantah Ji would be quite satisfied by now, having heard the ‘Drums of War’ in May 2025, June 2025 and now again in March 2026.

I can only assure them that if they show a little more patience, then they and indeed we all will be ‘blessed’ with much more of the same within the next few years. This is just the beginning, IMO, and there will be a LOT more violence in the years to come.

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Coming on to the currently ongoing war in Iran, one still struggles to find what was the political and military aim of US / Israel as they went in and attacked Iran. And then they began with an opening salvo killing everyone in Iran who could have negotiated / talked with them!

Needless to say, the regime in Iran survives.

And not only that, it had learnt lessons from previous American operations well and implemented a decentralized system of decision making and warfighting that is very difficult to break. Talking about lessons from history, whereas Iran learnt it well, the USA, sadly, failed on that account yet again. Well, atleast they are consistent that way!

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I think the quick and easy success in Venezuela might have played a part in the American decision to attack Iran. But what they didn’t factor in was the fact that Iran would actually fight back .. and fight well, at that. Of course, lack of knowledge of geography too helped them rush headlong into this disaster.
Iran is a MASSIVE country with a MASSIVE military, sitting astride a VERY narrow waterway.

And the other countries in the region are, well, minnows, militarily speaking.

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What has happened thus far is matter of public knowledge and I don’t intend writing much about that. However, I will most definitely share this tweet from 13 years ago that perfectly summarizes most of the American wars since WW2 thus far.

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If only they had learnt from their own history, they might have given a more detailed thought before going kinetic against Iran.
But then, time for that is long gone now.
So let us see what have they achieved so far.

For one, they have achieved total surprise, but for THEMSELVES!

If they thought Iran wouldn’t attack American military bases in the region and retaliate for attacks on its own energy and economic infrastructure originating from those countries, then I might have a white coloured building in Agra to sell to you!
Iran did warn the countries in the region & offered them a way out.
Read this statement carefully.

Now guess how many of these countries have US bases that serve as launchpads for attacks against Iran!

Which brings me to the question – Could any of these countries have actually refused permission to the USA?
The answer is a resounding NO.
Why, you asked?
Well, because nearly half a century ago, they outsourced their security in lieu of agreeing to sell oil in dollars only.

This was the basic premise of the petrodollar that helped these gulf monarchies prosper and also helped the USA to run record deficit budgets and become a military and economic superpower.
It was good while it lasted, I’d say.

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The implicit promise of security that was offered by the USA to the countries in West Asia in lieu of establishing the petrodollar empire has failed miserably and even spectacularly, I’d say. They are suffering death and destruction in a war in which they have no real stakes.

Once the dust settles, would they still want the USA to be the provider of security in their region?
Will they permit use of their sovereign territories to house USA military?
More than that, will they even have a choice in this matter?
Well, my guess is as good as yours.

Most of the West Asian monarchies rely on continued economic prosperity, expat labour for blue and white collar jobs and American security guarantees to stay in power.
The system worked fine for the past 50 years or so.
But now it is under immense stress.

Lure of a Dubai or any of its counterparts in the region as safe places for business & investment is now gone forever. It is highly unlikely that they recover their past ‘glory’ once this war is over. Any money coming there will always have a contingency plan, ready to scoot.

Might there be societal pressures within these countries in case this happens? Quite likely.
Might the monarchies feel vulnerable? Quite likely.
Might they deny any more bases to USA? Quite likely.
Might the USA look for regime change in these countries?

Food for thought, no?

But then, these are questions for the future to answer.
For the time being, it is amusing to see the USA look for a face-saving measure to pull out of this war.
Dare I say, with Iran still fighting and Strait of Hormuz still closed, they have already lost.

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They have already lost an aircraft carrier, not to Iranian missiles, but to an onboard fire which some suspect was caused thru sabotage from within, after a toilet crisis!
You couldn’t make this up even if you wanted, so absurd is the situation!
And then there was the F-35 shootdown!

The bombastic statements coming out of the USA are more like the thrashings of a drowning man who doesn’t know what to do.
Reminded me if this anecdote from a war from the ‘Most Allied Ally’ of the USA!
The similarities are uncanny indeed!

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The mightiest military force that the world has ever seen, is literally begging for ‘allies’ to come and open the Strait of Hormuz.
And the potential ‘allies’ have adequately been put on notice by Iran earlier this morning.
Talk about Timing!

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Bottomline: Geography cannot be trampled upon by brute force.
The Strait of Hormuz can only remain open if Iran wants it to remain open. The entire world in general and Gulf countries in particular are learning it at great peril.

It no longer matters whether USA declares victory and ends this war today, or carries on fighting for the next few days or weeks or months or even years.
The writing on the wall is absolutely clear.

The USA is an overstretched empire and in need of a drastic course correction.

Else, they may not last much longer.

Dare I say, that this might actually be a Suez Canal Crisis of their own for the American Empire.

The original crisis marked the beginning of the end for the British Empire.
Will this do the same for the Americans?
Well, time will tell.

What is most amusing is that ALL calls for ending the war are coming from the American side, whereas Iran sits pretty, bombing other Gulf countries at will.
And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The Americans do have a choice, though!
This 👇

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Or they can do the whole ‘Boots on Ground’ thing with the few thousand marines sailing fast into the battlezone.
But then, what will they achieve?
They can’t capture Iran.
Capture Kharg Island perhaps?
But will that open up the Strait of Hormuz or give yet another target to Iran?

Basically, Shri Donald Trump is caught in a Monkey Trap.
There is absolutely no dignified exit for him.
Period.

This brings me to the concluding part of this thread – What Comes Next?
Well, let me offer what I think will come next.
First and foremost, NATO is well and truly screwed, atleast till the time Trump remains in power.

Then there is the impact on European and other world economies due to high energy prices which won’t come down anytime soon due to the extensive damage to energy infrastructure.
All in all, the world as such is screwed.

Further, in this war, we might just have seen the seeds of a larger war that will consume much of the ‘civilized’ world in the years to come.
I am not saying this is what will happen, but just that this is what MIGHT happen. Feel free to disagree.

Coming over to India in particular, the first thing that came to my mind was this tweet from my very first few weeks on Twitter, just over 14 years ago.
India is gladly looking after its own interests, as it should.
And keeping its powder dry.

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For those who may not be aware, India has been a constant presence in West Asia since millennia, back when the USA was thousands of years from being ‘discovered’!

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And before the petrodollar came it, Indian Rupee was the preferred currency there.
Do read : 1966: When India’s Iron Lady Buckled Under US Pressure

The aura of invincibility of US military is well and totally demolished, and I get a feeling that they will draw down substantially from their military presence in West Asia as well. Of course, the vacuum will be filled up by a number of players, instead of just one superpower. Needless to say, Indian Navy will play a major role in the region, which it technically, our own backyard, given our historical presence as well as the hundreds of thousands of Indian citizens working in the region currently.

Over the past few decades, Indian Navy has gradually expanded its presence in the region, thnx to anti-piracy ops. How many remember the destruction of the pirate ‘mothership’ some years ago, or this 👇 anti-piracy op involving paradropping of Marine Commandos for that matter?

However, friendship at the point of a spear is not friendship. It is merely fear disguised as friendship, as the Gulf countries are now discovering to their peril. That said, the one thing where Indian diplomacy doesn’t get enough credit is for the fact that we have bridges and channels open with practically each and every party to the conflict in that region, be it Israel, or Iran, or KSA, or Qatar or Bahrain or UAE.

I doubt anyone else has it.
Now add to that Indian maritime power & see the kind of confidence all parties concerned would have wrt mutual interests
All in all, this is a really interesting time to be alive, when wheels of history are turning faster & faster.

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Mind you, the current world order was built with sweat and blood and money of the then powers. It will take an equal amount of these same things for it to be changed, if at all. I think we just might be in striking distance of that point in history again.

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Of course, none of us can claim to see the future.
So the best bet is to wait for it.
But at the same time, it would be foolish NOT to prepare for it.
The coming weeks and months and years will see blood and pain. That is inevitable.
The best we can do is to prepare ourselves.

Hence the need to keep your powder dry as I mentioned earlier in this thread.
Let this circus play out.
With the UPA era oil bonds having recently been paid off, dare I say, India already has a cushion in absorbing the shocks of high oil prices for the next few months atleast.

Of course, the USA can sanction & unsanction Russian and Iranian oil, but that doesn’t make an iota of difference to Indian energy imports.
On the other hand, it only exposes the American empire for the hollowness within
Meanwhile THIS is what Iran says 👇

Ramdhari Singh Dinkar Ji’s famous lines come to mind:

क्षमा शोभती उस भुजंग को
जिसके पास गरल हो
उसको क्या जो दंतहीन
विषरहित, विनीत, सरल हो।

This is exactly the state of the POTUS currently, I’d say.
Meanwhile, Hormuz remains closed till the time Iran doesn’t oblige them.

As far as India goes, oil and gas continue to flow to our ports from Iran as well as Russia .. as they always have, regardless of US sanctions or sanctimony.
Rest of the neighbourhood are far more stressed than us.
How it plays out in the near future, remains to be seen.

However, one thing remains constant .. and that is the need for constant vigil in furtherance of own interests.
Just like Iran learnt its lessons from the previous operations, I am sure Pakistan too would be looking at the current Iran War with keen interest and a begging bowl.

The next round with Pakistan, whenever it happens will be much different than Op Sindoor 2025.
Good Different or Bad Different, remains to be seen.
Will share some thoughts on that at a later date.
As for right now, it is time to wind up this thread.

All I will say in the end is that there can be no surer sign of the USA having lost the plot than this.
You may play around with words, but facts will remain unchanged.

And as far as West Asia is concerned, they might want to make Dhurandhar 2 tax free!

In the end, I’ll just add this little graphic that came my way via WA.
Sums it up perfectly!

With this, I conclude this chain of thoughts.
Hope it made some sense to you. If not, well, I can definitely live with it!
Oh, and watch out for the US Bond Market over the next few days!
Cheers.
:Fin: