Geopolitics

On the US-Iran War (As on 21 March 2026)

Harpreet Uncategorized , , , , , , , , , ,

Folks, sharing some thoughts about the currently ongoing #IranWar and how it has fundamentally changed the world as we knew it.

Let’s see how it goes ..

At the outset, I begin with the hope that Shri @Bigfoot_BC and Shri @shoonyaanantah Ji would be quite satisfied by now, having heard the ‘Drums of War’ in May 2025, June 2025 and now again in March 2026.

I can only assure them that if they show a little more patience, then they and indeed we all will be ‘blessed’ with much more of the same within the next few years. This is just the beginning, IMO, and there will be a LOT more violence in the years to come.

(Link to above tweet)

Coming on to the currently ongoing war in Iran, one still struggles to find what was the political and military aim of US / Israel as they went in and attacked Iran. And then they began with an opening salvo killing everyone in Iran who could have negotiated / talked with them!

Needless to say, the regime in Iran survives.

And not only that, it had learnt lessons from previous American operations well and implemented a decentralized system of decision making and warfighting that is very difficult to break. Talking about lessons from history, whereas Iran learnt it well, the USA, sadly, failed on that account yet again. Well, atleast they are consistent that way!

(Link to above tweet)

I think the quick and easy success in Venezuela might have played a part in the American decision to attack Iran. But what they didn’t factor in was the fact that Iran would actually fight back .. and fight well, at that. Of course, lack of knowledge of geography too helped them rush headlong into this disaster.
Iran is a MASSIVE country with a MASSIVE military, sitting astride a VERY narrow waterway.

And the other countries in the region are, well, minnows, militarily speaking.

(Link to above tweet)

What has happened thus far is matter of public knowledge and I don’t intend writing much about that. However, I will most definitely share this tweet from 13 years ago that perfectly summarizes most of the American wars since WW2 thus far.

(Link to above tweet)

If only they had learnt from their own history, they might have given a more detailed thought before going kinetic against Iran.
But then, time for that is long gone now.
So let us see what have they achieved so far.

For one, they have achieved total surprise, but for THEMSELVES!

If they thought Iran wouldn’t attack American military bases in the region and retaliate for attacks on its own energy and economic infrastructure originating from those countries, then I might have a white coloured building in Agra to sell to you!
Iran did warn the countries in the region & offered them a way out.
Read this statement carefully.

Now guess how many of these countries have US bases that serve as launchpads for attacks against Iran!

Which brings me to the question – Could any of these countries have actually refused permission to the USA?
The answer is a resounding NO.
Why, you asked?
Well, because nearly half a century ago, they outsourced their security in lieu of agreeing to sell oil in dollars only.

This was the basic premise of the petrodollar that helped these gulf monarchies prosper and also helped the USA to run record deficit budgets and become a military and economic superpower.
It was good while it lasted, I’d say.

(Link to above tweet)

The implicit promise of security that was offered by the USA to the countries in West Asia in lieu of establishing the petrodollar empire has failed miserably and even spectacularly, I’d say. They are suffering death and destruction in a war in which they have no real stakes.

Once the dust settles, would they still want the USA to be the provider of security in their region?
Will they permit use of their sovereign territories to house USA military?
More than that, will they even have a choice in this matter?
Well, my guess is as good as yours.

Most of the West Asian monarchies rely on continued economic prosperity, expat labour for blue and white collar jobs and American security guarantees to stay in power.
The system worked fine for the past 50 years or so.
But now it is under immense stress.

Lure of a Dubai or any of its counterparts in the region as safe places for business & investment is now gone forever. It is highly unlikely that they recover their past ‘glory’ once this war is over. Any money coming there will always have a contingency plan, ready to scoot.

Might there be societal pressures within these countries in case this happens? Quite likely.
Might the monarchies feel vulnerable? Quite likely.
Might they deny any more bases to USA? Quite likely.
Might the USA look for regime change in these countries?

Food for thought, no?

But then, these are questions for the future to answer.
For the time being, it is amusing to see the USA look for a face-saving measure to pull out of this war.
Dare I say, with Iran still fighting and Strait of Hormuz still closed, they have already lost.

(Link to above tweet)

They have already lost an aircraft carrier, not to Iranian missiles, but to an onboard fire which some suspect was caused thru sabotage from within, after a toilet crisis!
You couldn’t make this up even if you wanted, so absurd is the situation!
And then there was the F-35 shootdown!

The bombastic statements coming out of the USA are more like the thrashings of a drowning man who doesn’t know what to do.
Reminded me if this anecdote from a war from the ‘Most Allied Ally’ of the USA!
The similarities are uncanny indeed!

(Link to above tweet)

The mightiest military force that the world has ever seen, is literally begging for ‘allies’ to come and open the Strait of Hormuz.
And the potential ‘allies’ have adequately been put on notice by Iran earlier this morning.
Talk about Timing!

(Link to above tweet)

Bottomline: Geography cannot be trampled upon by brute force.
The Strait of Hormuz can only remain open if Iran wants it to remain open. The entire world in general and Gulf countries in particular are learning it at great peril.

It no longer matters whether USA declares victory and ends this war today, or carries on fighting for the next few days or weeks or months or even years.
The writing on the wall is absolutely clear.

The USA is an overstretched empire and in need of a drastic course correction.

Else, they may not last much longer.

Dare I say, that this might actually be a Suez Canal Crisis of their own for the American Empire.

The original crisis marked the beginning of the end for the British Empire.
Will this do the same for the Americans?
Well, time will tell.

What is most amusing is that ALL calls for ending the war are coming from the American side, whereas Iran sits pretty, bombing other Gulf countries at will.
And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The Americans do have a choice, though!
This 👇

(Link to above tweet)

Or they can do the whole ‘Boots on Ground’ thing with the few thousand marines sailing fast into the battlezone.
But then, what will they achieve?
They can’t capture Iran.
Capture Kharg Island perhaps?
But will that open up the Strait of Hormuz or give yet another target to Iran?

Basically, Shri Donald Trump is caught in a Monkey Trap.
There is absolutely no dignified exit for him.
Period.

This brings me to the concluding part of this thread – What Comes Next?
Well, let me offer what I think will come next.
First and foremost, NATO is well and truly screwed, atleast till the time Trump remains in power.

Then there is the impact on European and other world economies due to high energy prices which won’t come down anytime soon due to the extensive damage to energy infrastructure.
All in all, the world as such is screwed.

Further, in this war, we might just have seen the seeds of a larger war that will consume much of the ‘civilized’ world in the years to come.
I am not saying this is what will happen, but just that this is what MIGHT happen. Feel free to disagree.

Coming over to India in particular, the first thing that came to my mind was this tweet from my very first few weeks on Twitter, just over 14 years ago.
India is gladly looking after its own interests, as it should.
And keeping its powder dry.

(Link to above tweet)

For those who may not be aware, India has been a constant presence in West Asia since millennia, back when the USA was thousands of years from being ‘discovered’!

(Link to above tweet)

And before the petrodollar came it, Indian Rupee was the preferred currency there.
Do read : 1966: When India’s Iron Lady Buckled Under US Pressure

The aura of invincibility of US military is well and totally demolished, and I get a feeling that they will draw down substantially from their military presence in West Asia as well. Of course, the vacuum will be filled up by a number of players, instead of just one superpower. Needless to say, Indian Navy will play a major role in the region, which it technically, our own backyard, given our historical presence as well as the hundreds of thousands of Indian citizens working in the region currently.

Over the past few decades, Indian Navy has gradually expanded its presence in the region, thnx to anti-piracy ops. How many remember the destruction of the pirate ‘mothership’ some years ago, or this 👇 anti-piracy op involving paradropping of Marine Commandos for that matter?

However, friendship at the point of a spear is not friendship. It is merely fear disguised as friendship, as the Gulf countries are now discovering to their peril. That said, the one thing where Indian diplomacy doesn’t get enough credit is for the fact that we have bridges and channels open with practically each and every party to the conflict in that region, be it Israel, or Iran, or KSA, or Qatar or Bahrain or UAE.

I doubt anyone else has it.
Now add to that Indian maritime power & see the kind of confidence all parties concerned would have wrt mutual interests
All in all, this is a really interesting time to be alive, when wheels of history are turning faster & faster.

(Link to above tweet)

Mind you, the current world order was built with sweat and blood and money of the then powers. It will take an equal amount of these same things for it to be changed, if at all. I think we just might be in striking distance of that point in history again.

(Link to above tweet)

Of course, none of us can claim to see the future.
So the best bet is to wait for it.
But at the same time, it would be foolish NOT to prepare for it.
The coming weeks and months and years will see blood and pain. That is inevitable.
The best we can do is to prepare ourselves.

Hence the need to keep your powder dry as I mentioned earlier in this thread.
Let this circus play out.
With the UPA era oil bonds having recently been paid off, dare I say, India already has a cushion in absorbing the shocks of high oil prices for the next few months atleast.

Of course, the USA can sanction & unsanction Russian and Iranian oil, but that doesn’t make an iota of difference to Indian energy imports.
On the other hand, it only exposes the American empire for the hollowness within
Meanwhile THIS is what Iran says 👇

Ramdhari Singh Dinkar Ji’s famous lines come to mind:

क्षमा शोभती उस भुजंग को
जिसके पास गरल हो
उसको क्या जो दंतहीन
विषरहित, विनीत, सरल हो।

This is exactly the state of the POTUS currently, I’d say.
Meanwhile, Hormuz remains closed till the time Iran doesn’t oblige them.

As far as India goes, oil and gas continue to flow to our ports from Iran as well as Russia .. as they always have, regardless of US sanctions or sanctimony.
Rest of the neighbourhood are far more stressed than us.
How it plays out in the near future, remains to be seen.

However, one thing remains constant .. and that is the need for constant vigil in furtherance of own interests.
Just like Iran learnt its lessons from the previous operations, I am sure Pakistan too would be looking at the current Iran War with keen interest and a begging bowl.

The next round with Pakistan, whenever it happens will be much different than Op Sindoor 2025.
Good Different or Bad Different, remains to be seen.
Will share some thoughts on that at a later date.
As for right now, it is time to wind up this thread.

All I will say in the end is that there can be no surer sign of the USA having lost the plot than this.
You may play around with words, but facts will remain unchanged.

And as far as West Asia is concerned, they might want to make Dhurandhar 2 tax free!

In the end, I’ll just add this little graphic that came my way via WA.
Sums it up perfectly!

With this, I conclude this chain of thoughts.
Hope it made some sense to you. If not, well, I can definitely live with it!
Oh, and watch out for the US Bond Market over the next few days!
Cheers.
:Fin:

On the Current Mess in Pakistan

Harpreet Uncategorized ,

Ok folks, sharing some thoughts on the current state of Pakistan.

Strictly my opinions. Feel free to disagree!

Been a while since I did a blog post, lets see how this one goes ..

First and foremost, I would like to start with an undisputable fact:

This is the longest that the Pakistan Army has NOT directly ruled Pakistan!

Yup, you may read the above statement again and take some time to do some mental mathematics if you so desire!

Now, why might that be, one might ask.
Well, it is NOT because they have decided to stay in their constitutionally mandated role instead of meddling in politics (and business as well, but that topic is ‘out of course’ for the time being). Instead, I would blame the Kerry-Lugar Bill of 2009(?) that forbade any aid to Pakistan in case of a military coup!

Heck that was the reason why the first elected govt of Pakistan could complete its full term under a single head of govt!

But then, the key word in the tweet regarding no direct military rule is the word ‘DIRECT‘!

The Brown Panted Ones may have gone in the background, but they never let go of their political power, so to say! In fact, they seem to have developed a taste for backseat driving!

Image

There can be no greater testimony to the fact that Brown Panted Ones are the real rulers of Bhikharistan, than the various political entities still vying for the ‘attentions’ of the Army in order to further their own political fortunes as Pakistan heads out to the next election.

I will come to that in a while. But first let me get on with the current situation out there in Bhikharistan. It goes something like this:-

1.   On the verge of default.

2.   Riots and murders for as little as a bag of flour.

3.   Political paralysis (as always).

4.  Increasing centrifugal forces.

 

It isn’t the first time they have faced these challenges. But it does seem a bit ‘different’ this time, no?

Perhaps because the world is no longer just throwing money at them?

Heck, even the almighty Amreeka is ignoring them!

(PS: Pl don’t bring up the Bhikharistanis dancing in ecstasy when the USA pulled out of Afghanistan not so long ago, crowing that they have defeated ‘Yet Another Superpower’! PPS: Pl also ignore the kicks on the Packie backsides being delivered daily by the same Afghanistan!)

Basically, their economic model of Begging, Borrowing (and printing FICN) to sustain their economy is under a LOT of stress because neither are they able to beg (to their heart’s content) or even borrow due to the chickens finally coming home to roost!

All those pledges for flood relief fund that the smug Bhikharistanis ‘extracted’ just a few weeks ago, turned out to be vague promises of loans that would .. GASP!! .. need to be repaid!! Understandably, there are food riots on their streets!

Do Watch this video below:-

So .. will Pakistan FINALLY default?

Well, this is a question I asked nearly five years ago, leading to yet another thread which carries on still!

Basically, they’ve been in hand-to-mouth situation since a really really long time and have somehow at the last moment someone throws some crumbs their way and they are able to live to beg another day!

In fact that should be the new motto of Bhikharistan: Live to Beg Another Day!

Of course, that penury and poverty doesn’t apply to their feudal elites or their Brown Panted Ones who continue on the path to ‘prosperity’ as is adequately indicated by their ever growing bellies!

ImageImageImageImage

Image

 

And as far as the mango people go, well, they can eat cake, no?

Heck, the feudal lords will at times personally deliver those cakes!

So what comes next?

This is what I will delve upon further on in the thread. The one thing that I am waiting for (and Insha’llah, it would happen soon) is their forex reserves going below the $4Bn mark.

THAT would be a good psychological blow, IMO, since it’s been a while since their forex reserves went to the ‘Three Point Something’ mark!

But Will they default?

Seems increasingly likely too. But then there is always a billion or two that benefactors can throw at them!

Any additional money thrown their way will only result in kicking of the can a bit further down the road before the inevitable happens. Now I’m no economist to hazard a guess as to how the situation might pan out in case they do default, but then I can make a guess!

Sri Lanka scenario of some months ago gives a template of what might happen. Massive protests .. toppling of govt .. occupation of mansions of the elites .. you name it!

But Bhikharistan is a bit different.

And no, I’m NOT talking about nukes!

Instead, what I am talking about is a rabid, fanatical population armed with perhaps the largest inventory of weapons with civilian citizens after America. Once they become a mob, things would be really interesting to watch!

But that might still be some time away, especially if the Brown Panted rulers can somehow ‘divert’ their attention away from empty plates within and an enemy outside.

You get my drift, right?

It may not be too long before they accuse India of stirring up troubles on their borders. But then, if they indeed do so, what happens next?

Will they muster the courage to ‘teach India a lesson’?

Especially with the experience of Balakot & loss of an F-16? And of trembling legs?

Interestingly, the average Pakistani citizen is more and more apprehensive of and at some level, even enamoured with the rapid growth that India has achieved. They do realise that India has pulled so far away that there is no way Pakistan can ever hope to catch up anymore.

Hence, heightened tensions on the Durand Line might be one way to rally their starving population!

But then, knowing the absurdities they are known for, they might STILL choose to poke India yet again! This quote from a senior military officer sums it up!

Yet, we see peace overtures (only to be quickly made contingent upon handing over Kashmir to them!) from Bhikharistan. What I make of it is pure and simple signalling to benefactors that ‘Look, we are seeking peace. Now give us alms!’

Kashmir is something they just can’t give up.

Kashmir has been the reason for their existence.

Kashmir will be the reason for their downfall!

They’ve been having wet dreams ever since their very birth about ‘freeing’ Kashmir. And to think they will move on now, is pure stupidity!

This is a song from Pakistani film Bedari of 1957. They copied the song from ‘Jagriti’ of 1954 & added the RR about Kashmir! 1957!

And u think they will give up just because they’re a few billion dollars short today?

There can never be peace till the time Pakistan exists! Period!

They are fast approaching a critical mass of sorts. Thereafter, gravity takes over and things become irreversible, even for the Brown Panted ones to be able to take care of.

Whenever the Pakistan Army have found themselves in such a situation, they have had no choice but to lash out. They have two options when it comes to lashing out – Either outside their borders, or inside.

Let me explain ..

Firstly, their default option for lashing out is of course, outside their borders. But that only happened once – in 1971. Yet that too was because they had lashed out within on their own Bengali population and things spiralled out of control!

Remember, for all the fake bravado, the survival instinct of the Brown Panted Ones is really strong. That’s why, when in trouble they mostly lash out on their own people.

After 1965, there was an internal coup and Ayub Khan was thrown out.

Thereafter, once the rout of 1971 was reasonably distant, they hanged the Prime Minister and ushered in yet another dictatorship!

Same happened after 1999 humiliation as well, when Musharraf ‘gifted’ himself to Pakistan.

Get my drift?

I fully expect another internal crackdown soon, or perhaps another military man in power, IF they are unable to create a situation on their borders. But then, as I said in the beginning of this thread, that’s just my opinion!

That is not to say that the Pakistan Army itself isn’t under any stress. This is the first time perhaps that so many of their subjects (or as they are called in normal countries, citizens) are openly abusing them! Their own rank and file too aren’t blameless either.

The intoxication which comes with unquestioned power, has really made them believe themselves to be a ‘class apart’ from the hoi-polloi! Heck, even their ‘better’ halves are in on the game. Do go thru this thread below! I insist!

Of course, it is only fair to assume that the rank and file of the Pakistan Army too wouldn’t stay untouched with all that is happening in their country. A ‘Daadhi-Wala’ Vs ‘Daaru-Wala’ clash within the Brown Panted Ones in the near future cannot be ruled out either, especially if things go farther south.

Now that would be fun, right? 😀

In such a scenario, would they swallow their pride and sue for genuine peace? Or would they go Kamikaze with an aim to take down as many ‘Kafirs’ with them as they can, just like this guy in the video below dreams of doing?

In case they do go Kamikaze, would they only concentrate on Kafirs in India?

Esp since their missiles can reach Israel?

Heck, the same missiles can even reach China!

Food for thought, no?

Basically, they are well on their way to becoming the entire World’s problem instead of merely being India’s problem. The world too is beginning to realise this. Hence the reluctance to dole out free monies any more. Of course the Ukraine War too has diverted their attention!

For the time being, it suits everyone to keep Bhikharistan on liquid oxygen – on the verge of default being their default setting – so that they are kept busy within!

Yes, there can be a future scenario wherein India sees an influx of refugees from a failed/failing Pakistan.

What might we do then, right?

Especially with the loonie brigade within, whose hearts bleed for their Pakistani ‘brethren’, even at the cost of national security! I touched upon this thought some time back.

The option I found to be the most suitable then was to establish refugee camps within Pakistani territory. I still stand by this. There is absolutely no way we can let in the hordes of radicalized loonies into our borders. Feed them. But keep them away!

Of course, that contingency may still be a long way out, if at all.

But remember, this is a civilizational conflict. It will not end with the failure of Pakistan.

It will only end with the failure of the IDEA of Pakistan.

Do read the above statements once again, if you must.

It is THIS that we need to keep in mind as we move ahead to our rightful place in the comity of Nations. The world at large is headed for days of geopolitical uncertainty over the next decade or so. We too are unlikely to remain unaffected.

That said, we need to be well prepared to achieve what we wish to/need to. For that, we need to know the desired end-state in our neighbourhood.

Might it be multiple Pakistans instead of one?

Or successors of current Pakistani State, but friendlier?

Or even an Afg on our borders?

Remember, during the first Taliban regime in Kabul in the 1990s, India didn’t have a diplomatic mission there. This time, however, not only does the Indian diplomatic mission in Kabul continues to function, but also actively engage the Taliban. What might be the reason?

Think!

As I wind up this blog post, let me come back to Bhikharistan.

In the immediate future, I don’t see any improvement in their situation because of the very fact that they might be looking at it as a problem for the next Govt, given the elections that are fast approaching!

But I wouldn’t be very surprised either if they decide to ‘make a concession’ and ‘permit’ India to sell them essential food items in the near future! Packie PM’s recent statement on this account might have been a test balloon which sadly got punctured by non-response from India!

All in all, buy some popcorn and enjoy the show unfolding out there! I finish this thread with this video of a Bhikharistani being shown his true worth. Thanks for your patience!

 

And this one too!

:End of Blog Post: