(This chain of thoughts was tweeted on the night of 16 Dec 2024. Link to the thread on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/1868683636066939125 )
Sharing some thoughts on the recent moves by the Arakan Army on the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border.
Let’s see how this one goes ..
Let me just begin with this bombastic video of Bangladesh Army veterans threatening to capture Kolkata within four days! Very bombastic, I’d say .. especially when their own generation got the blunt end of the stick from Pakistanis in 1970-71 and couldn’t do anything about that!
Unfortunately for these geriatric idiots, while they were turned towards Kolkata, right behind them came the Arakan Army which established control over Bangladesh-Myanmar border. As always, these erstwhile East Pakistanis got totally surprised from behind (PS: All Possible Puns Fully Intended!)
It is still open to debate whether the Arakan Army did that with the backing of the Chinese or the Americans (I personally bet on Chinese hand, but that is just a gut feeling). But regardless, that border is now sealed for the immediate future atleast.
Implications of that on poor old Bangladesh are a tad unfortunate. It means that the only land border that still permits import of essential goods such as potatoes, sugar, COTTON FOR THEIR TEXTILE INDUSTRY, refined petroleum products etc, is the Indian border!
Oh, and electricity too! On that note, I wonder whether the amount payable to Adani Group for electricity supply has crossed $1Bn yet! Of course, the Bangladeshis threaten to import electricity via Nepal but unfortunately that too would depend upon Indian benevolence for transit!
Why I wrote the above is that if you noticed, the open anti-India rhetoric of Bangladesh in the immediate aftermath of their August ‘Revolution’ has scaled down immensely over the past few days. On that note, I will just leave this tweet here before moving on!
Adanis have already reduced electricity supply by 50% and Tripura too has nearly cut down entirely, the electricity they were supplying to Bangladesh due to non-payment of dues.
Aur karo revolution!
But coming back to the happenings on the Myanmar-Bangladesh Border .. The first thought that came to my mind when I first heard about the capture and sealing of the border by Arakan Army some days ago was SYRIA.
Seriously.
Let me try and explain why.
Ever since the August ‘Revolution’, people in India have been talking about retaking Indian territory lost to Pakistan in 1947. To be fair, I too added a lot of fuel to this fire, especially when it comes to the Chittagong area.
And this is why the Arakan Army moves in Muangdaw become so interesting.
What are the odds that if and when India actually decides to make a move in that area, the Chinese(?) backed won’t try and beat us to it, especially to the strategic port of Chittagong?
Mind you, I write the above merely as a hypothetical scenario, but still, one that has been playing on my mind for some time now.
What makes this thought more interesting is this :
Depending on who you listen to, the Arakan Army have been shelling areas in Bangladesh from across the border or as per some, they have already invaded Bangladesh territory and taken over the town of Teknaf!
But regardless, things are not too happy for the clown in Dhaka.
I totally agree with Col Hunny Bakshi below that one thing is for sure – Refugee influx in India in large numbers.
I will come to that in a while. But first let us get to the geography of the area.
It is rightly called the Bay of Bengal. The underlying context is that whoever controls Bengal, controls it.
You may want to mull over the above thought for a moment before moving ahead.
Moving on, it is India that controls not just Bengal but also both points of entry into Bay of Bengal – the Malacca Straits as well as the Indian Ocean route.
I say India controls Bengal, keeping in mind the relatively recent reality of a country called East Pakistan / Bangladesh.
There have been reports of the USA looking for a base in St Martin’s Island in Bangladesh and the Chinese looking at the Sittwe Port.
Needless to say none of these will be viable without Indian support or atleast an Indian nod.
Feel free to disagree with what I wrote above.
What I am coming to, is the fact that if things continue to fester, there will soon be a Syria type situation right on our borders. With too many stakeholders rushing to fill a power vacuum inside erstwhile East Pakistan, something is bound to give way.
Despite the facade of a Nobel Laureate in control, fact remains that there is still a lot of ambiguity in the power structure in charge of Bangladesh. The 84 years old geriatric ‘Advisor’ can very easily be discarded by the real power, if needed.
However, that still does not solve the problem of the true face behind the mess that Bangladesh is in today. Of course, it is quite well known to be General Waker uz Zaman, with the backing of Pakistan to boot, but he is still not the ‘Face’.
Of course, when things go further South, he can suddenly and magically come forward as the ‘Saviour’, aka his heroes Musharraf, Zia ul Haq, Yahya and Ayub Khan and of course the countless Bangladesh Army Coup makers as well!
But the big question to ask is, who will he save Bangladesh from?
And HOW?
Will it be from India?
Of course, it will be from India!
But HOW is the big question!
The simple answer is – No Way!
At best, the Bangladesh Army can be a pinprick. At worst, they can just fold and surrender, just like their heroes, the Brown Panted Ones of Pakistan. Btw, greetings on Vijay Diwas ye all!
The yahoos in charge of Bangladesh with Pakistani blessings are the sons and grandsons of these very unfortunate women. Cynically speaking, these bastards are just yearning for the love of their fathers and grandfathers sitting in Pakistan. (Do read the snippet below. I INSIST)
Carrying on, let us see the similarities between the current situation and 1971.
1. Democratically elected govt NOT permitted to be in power.
2. Looming threat of refugee crisis.
3. Superpower rivalry in Bay of Bengal (Apart from US and China, Russian Navy too visited recently)
4. Chaos on the streets of Bangladesh.
5. Rampant persecution and killings of minorities.
6. Economic stress due to non-existent law and order.
7. NO FRIENDS IN VICINITY TO SEEK HELP FROM.
We can keep adding to this list, but I think you get my gist.
As the wheels of history move faster and faster, there will be more and more chaos.
But remember, new Order can only emerge from Chaos. This is what happened after WW2, after 1971 and if we play our cards well, this is what will happen after 2024 as well.
We may do it tomorrow,
Or we may do it in a couple of months,
Or in a couple of years’ time ..
But fact remains that if we don’t, someone else will. I’d much rather see Feni / Chittagong and Rangpur in Indian map instead of someone else’s.
In any case, Bangladesh as we knew prior to 05 Aug 2024, no longer exists and will not come back either.
They made their bed. Now they sleep in it.
Unfortunately for them, they decided to sleep with the Pakistanis in this case. The result will be another break-up of their country.
Bangladesh is not merely landlocked with India on 95% of its borders, it is also at the mercy of the Indian Navy across its shores. The Indian Navy has had a free run of Bangladesh ports earlier, destroying targets at will, thanks to the mighty Vikrant. If it ever comes to a race for Chittagong and other ports of present day Bangladesh, I am sure they would just as brilliantly complement their Indian Army counterparts in 2024-25 as they did in 1971.
As a further exercise, just plot the Indian Air Force bases around Bangladesh!
What will Shri Waker uz Zaman and his fauj of geriatrics do?
Answer – Nothing.
They might beg the world for help.
But that won’t change their fate.
Begging for US and Chinese aid didn’t help their illegitimate fathers in 1971 when India was relatively much weaker than it is now. Further, state of relations of present day India with most world powers is much different, as also current Indian heft in international geopolitics.
On that note, I will also share a personal view : Most Indians still remember the decidedly inimical US actions against India in 1971, but have mostly forgotten about the post Pokharan-2 sanctions of 1998.
Here’s why, in my opinion : 1998 is forgotten ‘coz sanctions were a foregone conclusion since we deliberately acted against established norms. But in 1971, we were the morally correct side & US sided with the ‘asuras’. Hence the continued memory of that event. Feel free to disagree!
As I come to close this thread, I will give you one more thing to do.
Just open a map of India and focus on Bangladesh.
See if that strikes you as an unnatural entity, nearly cutting off the Motherland from her North-Eastern children.
To me, it surely does
As I mentioned earlier, Bangladesh of 04 Aug 2024 is finished.
Let me also add that Bangladesh of 16 Dec 2024 too has no future unless they accept the fact that it is only India that can help them out of this mess that they have created for themselves.
Do mull over it for a moment
With this, I conclude this thread. Today is too momentous a day to ignore the happenings in Bangladesh. On that note, I will just leave this short thread on the occasion of #VijayDiwas here as well.
Jai Hind .. and goodnight!
Adding my previous Blog Posts on Bangladesh here, for those interested:
On the Events Currently Underway in Bangladesh (As on 08 Aug 2024)
On the Events in Bangladesh (As on 26 Aug 2024)
On the Role of the Bangladesh Army in Recent Events (As on 27 Aug 2024)
Harpreet's Blog 