west-asia

On the US-Iran War (As on 21 March 2026)

Harpreet Uncategorized , , , , , , , , , ,

Folks, sharing some thoughts about the currently ongoing #IranWar and how it has fundamentally changed the world as we knew it.

Let’s see how it goes ..

At the outset, I begin with the hope that Shri @Bigfoot_BC and Shri @shoonyaanantah Ji would be quite satisfied by now, having heard the ‘Drums of War’ in May 2025, June 2025 and now again in March 2026.

I can only assure them that if they show a little more patience, then they and indeed we all will be ‘blessed’ with much more of the same within the next few years. This is just the beginning, IMO, and there will be a LOT more violence in the years to come.

(Link to above tweet)

Coming on to the currently ongoing war in Iran, one still struggles to find what was the political and military aim of US / Israel as they went in and attacked Iran. And then they began with an opening salvo killing everyone in Iran who could have negotiated / talked with them!

Needless to say, the regime in Iran survives.

And not only that, it had learnt lessons from previous American operations well and implemented a decentralized system of decision making and warfighting that is very difficult to break. Talking about lessons from history, whereas Iran learnt it well, the USA, sadly, failed on that account yet again. Well, atleast they are consistent that way!

(Link to above tweet)

I think the quick and easy success in Venezuela might have played a part in the American decision to attack Iran. But what they didn’t factor in was the fact that Iran would actually fight back .. and fight well, at that. Of course, lack of knowledge of geography too helped them rush headlong into this disaster.
Iran is a MASSIVE country with a MASSIVE military, sitting astride a VERY narrow waterway.

And the other countries in the region are, well, minnows, militarily speaking.

(Link to above tweet)

What has happened thus far is matter of public knowledge and I don’t intend writing much about that. However, I will most definitely share this tweet from 13 years ago that perfectly summarizes most of the American wars since WW2 thus far.

(Link to above tweet)

If only they had learnt from their own history, they might have given a more detailed thought before going kinetic against Iran.
But then, time for that is long gone now.
So let us see what have they achieved so far.

For one, they have achieved total surprise, but for THEMSELVES!

If they thought Iran wouldn’t attack American military bases in the region and retaliate for attacks on its own energy and economic infrastructure originating from those countries, then I might have a white coloured building in Agra to sell to you!
Iran did warn the countries in the region & offered them a way out.
Read this statement carefully.

Now guess how many of these countries have US bases that serve as launchpads for attacks against Iran!

Which brings me to the question – Could any of these countries have actually refused permission to the USA?
The answer is a resounding NO.
Why, you asked?
Well, because nearly half a century ago, they outsourced their security in lieu of agreeing to sell oil in dollars only.

This was the basic premise of the petrodollar that helped these gulf monarchies prosper and also helped the USA to run record deficit budgets and become a military and economic superpower.
It was good while it lasted, I’d say.

(Link to above tweet)

The implicit promise of security that was offered by the USA to the countries in West Asia in lieu of establishing the petrodollar empire has failed miserably and even spectacularly, I’d say. They are suffering death and destruction in a war in which they have no real stakes.

Once the dust settles, would they still want the USA to be the provider of security in their region?
Will they permit use of their sovereign territories to house USA military?
More than that, will they even have a choice in this matter?
Well, my guess is as good as yours.

Most of the West Asian monarchies rely on continued economic prosperity, expat labour for blue and white collar jobs and American security guarantees to stay in power.
The system worked fine for the past 50 years or so.
But now it is under immense stress.

Lure of a Dubai or any of its counterparts in the region as safe places for business & investment is now gone forever. It is highly unlikely that they recover their past ‘glory’ once this war is over. Any money coming there will always have a contingency plan, ready to scoot.

Might there be societal pressures within these countries in case this happens? Quite likely.
Might the monarchies feel vulnerable? Quite likely.
Might they deny any more bases to USA? Quite likely.
Might the USA look for regime change in these countries?

Food for thought, no?

But then, these are questions for the future to answer.
For the time being, it is amusing to see the USA look for a face-saving measure to pull out of this war.
Dare I say, with Iran still fighting and Strait of Hormuz still closed, they have already lost.

(Link to above tweet)

They have already lost an aircraft carrier, not to Iranian missiles, but to an onboard fire which some suspect was caused thru sabotage from within, after a toilet crisis!
You couldn’t make this up even if you wanted, so absurd is the situation!
And then there was the F-35 shootdown!

The bombastic statements coming out of the USA are more like the thrashings of a drowning man who doesn’t know what to do.
Reminded me if this anecdote from a war from the ‘Most Allied Ally’ of the USA!
The similarities are uncanny indeed!

(Link to above tweet)

The mightiest military force that the world has ever seen, is literally begging for ‘allies’ to come and open the Strait of Hormuz.
And the potential ‘allies’ have adequately been put on notice by Iran earlier this morning.
Talk about Timing!

(Link to above tweet)

Bottomline: Geography cannot be trampled upon by brute force.
The Strait of Hormuz can only remain open if Iran wants it to remain open. The entire world in general and Gulf countries in particular are learning it at great peril.

It no longer matters whether USA declares victory and ends this war today, or carries on fighting for the next few days or weeks or months or even years.
The writing on the wall is absolutely clear.

The USA is an overstretched empire and in need of a drastic course correction.

Else, they may not last much longer.

Dare I say, that this might actually be a Suez Canal Crisis of their own for the American Empire.

The original crisis marked the beginning of the end for the British Empire.
Will this do the same for the Americans?
Well, time will tell.

What is most amusing is that ALL calls for ending the war are coming from the American side, whereas Iran sits pretty, bombing other Gulf countries at will.
And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The Americans do have a choice, though!
This 👇

(Link to above tweet)

Or they can do the whole ‘Boots on Ground’ thing with the few thousand marines sailing fast into the battlezone.
But then, what will they achieve?
They can’t capture Iran.
Capture Kharg Island perhaps?
But will that open up the Strait of Hormuz or give yet another target to Iran?

Basically, Shri Donald Trump is caught in a Monkey Trap.
There is absolutely no dignified exit for him.
Period.

This brings me to the concluding part of this thread – What Comes Next?
Well, let me offer what I think will come next.
First and foremost, NATO is well and truly screwed, atleast till the time Trump remains in power.

Then there is the impact on European and other world economies due to high energy prices which won’t come down anytime soon due to the extensive damage to energy infrastructure.
All in all, the world as such is screwed.

Further, in this war, we might just have seen the seeds of a larger war that will consume much of the ‘civilized’ world in the years to come.
I am not saying this is what will happen, but just that this is what MIGHT happen. Feel free to disagree.

Coming over to India in particular, the first thing that came to my mind was this tweet from my very first few weeks on Twitter, just over 14 years ago.
India is gladly looking after its own interests, as it should.
And keeping its powder dry.

(Link to above tweet)

For those who may not be aware, India has been a constant presence in West Asia since millennia, back when the USA was thousands of years from being ‘discovered’!

(Link to above tweet)

And before the petrodollar came it, Indian Rupee was the preferred currency there.
Do read : 1966: When India’s Iron Lady Buckled Under US Pressure

The aura of invincibility of US military is well and totally demolished, and I get a feeling that they will draw down substantially from their military presence in West Asia as well. Of course, the vacuum will be filled up by a number of players, instead of just one superpower. Needless to say, Indian Navy will play a major role in the region, which it technically, our own backyard, given our historical presence as well as the hundreds of thousands of Indian citizens working in the region currently.

Over the past few decades, Indian Navy has gradually expanded its presence in the region, thnx to anti-piracy ops. How many remember the destruction of the pirate ‘mothership’ some years ago, or this 👇 anti-piracy op involving paradropping of Marine Commandos for that matter?

However, friendship at the point of a spear is not friendship. It is merely fear disguised as friendship, as the Gulf countries are now discovering to their peril. That said, the one thing where Indian diplomacy doesn’t get enough credit is for the fact that we have bridges and channels open with practically each and every party to the conflict in that region, be it Israel, or Iran, or KSA, or Qatar or Bahrain or UAE.

I doubt anyone else has it.
Now add to that Indian maritime power & see the kind of confidence all parties concerned would have wrt mutual interests
All in all, this is a really interesting time to be alive, when wheels of history are turning faster & faster.

(Link to above tweet)

Mind you, the current world order was built with sweat and blood and money of the then powers. It will take an equal amount of these same things for it to be changed, if at all. I think we just might be in striking distance of that point in history again.

(Link to above tweet)

Of course, none of us can claim to see the future.
So the best bet is to wait for it.
But at the same time, it would be foolish NOT to prepare for it.
The coming weeks and months and years will see blood and pain. That is inevitable.
The best we can do is to prepare ourselves.

Hence the need to keep your powder dry as I mentioned earlier in this thread.
Let this circus play out.
With the UPA era oil bonds having recently been paid off, dare I say, India already has a cushion in absorbing the shocks of high oil prices for the next few months atleast.

Of course, the USA can sanction & unsanction Russian and Iranian oil, but that doesn’t make an iota of difference to Indian energy imports.
On the other hand, it only exposes the American empire for the hollowness within
Meanwhile THIS is what Iran says 👇

Ramdhari Singh Dinkar Ji’s famous lines come to mind:

क्षमा शोभती उस भुजंग को
जिसके पास गरल हो
उसको क्या जो दंतहीन
विषरहित, विनीत, सरल हो।

This is exactly the state of the POTUS currently, I’d say.
Meanwhile, Hormuz remains closed till the time Iran doesn’t oblige them.

As far as India goes, oil and gas continue to flow to our ports from Iran as well as Russia .. as they always have, regardless of US sanctions or sanctimony.
Rest of the neighbourhood are far more stressed than us.
How it plays out in the near future, remains to be seen.

However, one thing remains constant .. and that is the need for constant vigil in furtherance of own interests.
Just like Iran learnt its lessons from the previous operations, I am sure Pakistan too would be looking at the current Iran War with keen interest and a begging bowl.

The next round with Pakistan, whenever it happens will be much different than Op Sindoor 2025.
Good Different or Bad Different, remains to be seen.
Will share some thoughts on that at a later date.
As for right now, it is time to wind up this thread.

All I will say in the end is that there can be no surer sign of the USA having lost the plot than this.
You may play around with words, but facts will remain unchanged.

And as far as West Asia is concerned, they might want to make Dhurandhar 2 tax free!

In the end, I’ll just add this little graphic that came my way via WA.
Sums it up perfectly!

With this, I conclude this chain of thoughts.
Hope it made some sense to you. If not, well, I can definitely live with it!
Oh, and watch out for the US Bond Market over the next few days!
Cheers.
:Fin:

On the Second Anniversary of 07 Oct 2023 Attacks on Israel

Harpreet Uncategorized , , , , , ,

(Note: This chain of thoughts was initially shared on Twitter / X on 08 Oct 2025)

Folks, yesterday was the second anniversary of the largest ever terror attack by Hamas on Israel. Sharing some thoughts on how things have panned out since then. Before moving ahead, I will leave this short thread chronicling some of the worst atrocities visited upon the citizens of Israel by Hamas on 07 Oct 2023, that led to this latest conflagration:

https://twitter.com/THEREALJEW613/status/1975273947085033563

And also this one as well. Do go thru these threads before moving ahead :

The world has moved a great deal in the last two years since the first Hamas terrorist crossed the border into Israel. This is what I had written on the day of the attack. A LOT of blood – other than Israeli or Palestinian – has already flowed since then.

And of course, a LOT of collateral damage within Gaza itself. You would be an idiot if you thought that such actions by Hamas wouldn’t lead to collateral damage. But where they went wrong, IMO, is at the sheer scale of it all.

Israel has seen far worse in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War when so many combined Arab armies attacked them out of the blue. It was the closest that the Arabs ever came to wiping Israel off the map of the world. Yet, they failed.

Why?

Because Israel had nowhere else to go. Period

Btw, here is a chain of thoughts on Yom Kippur War too. What changed since this is that Assad of Syria too is no longer in power. The ONLY winner in this along with Israel was Egypt .. because they combined military power with pragmatic political process.

Coming back to Gaza, what has happened over the past two years is that Israel has (rightly) visited extreme violence upon Hamas, not just in Gaza but going upto Qatar as well. What went along with that was the brilliant and devastating Pager attacks on Hezbollah too.

Bottomline : Israel did whatever it could to secure itself all over again.

I would say this was not just a result of a course correction after the events of 07 Oct 2023, but also due to the planning and preparations that go on 24/7/365 regardless of internal politics of Israel.

As I mentioned earlier, Israel has nowhere else to go. They have absolutely no choice but to meet violence with even more violence. It is a matter of their very survival as a civilization. Hence, I personally was not the least bit surprised at what they have achieved since 07 Oct.

Talking about civilization, I will also replug this tweet that was posted on the day of the 07 Oct attacks. While it may be a HUGE event in our lifetimes, later generations will only see it as a couple of pages in their history books.

However, where this particular series of events has been different, is the way the Loonie Left have sought to run away with the narrative of ‘disproportionate’ Israeli retaliation on the ‘innocent’ Gazans.

Of course, when 07 Oct is mentioned, they either deny or shift goalposts!

We have seen rabid protests against Israel, particularly in educational institutions and media, mostly without factual basis. A prime example is this absolutely fake story published by NYT.

The carefully cultivated ecosystem of misinformation and propaganda warfare that had been so successful in so many ‘colour revolutions’ finally came home to the US and Europe as well.

Heck, even the UNRWA chose to delete tweets that showed Hamas in their true colours!

 

However, the idiots forgot one thing – A lie may run fast, but it can never run far! This little video and remarks at the end – ‘You’re a fucking idiot’ – just about sums it up.

A lot more water has flown down the Jordan River since 07 Oct 2023. The amount of bloodshed that the world has seen since then is also indicative of not just the times that we are living in, but also the times that await us. Let me delve on that a bit more.

Ukraine, Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, Yemen, Pakistan, India have seen bloodshed by state actors in various forms.

Western Europe and USA too are suffering from rapidly increasing instances of violence, thanks to their own policies and politics of the past so many years.

All in all, I can only foresee even more increasing levels of violence in the years to come, as the world heads towards a major reset in the distribution of power. On that note, ‘Clash of Civilizations’ is a good book to read now.

As the balance of power inevitably shifts from the West to the East, we will only see more bloodshed.

All I can at this point in time is that these are really ‘interesting’ times indeed, and far more ‘interesting’ days await us.

Sad as the loss of life & limb may be, but I am of the firm opinion that this latest Hamas-Israel conflict will ultimately prove only to be one of the many theatres that would see death & destruction before the dust finally settles I still stand by this :

One thing that I would say worked in Israel’s favour was the US Presidential Election result of 2024. However, I am sure even they would be aware that the pendulum may yet swing the other way in future & an even more challenging administration may yet come to power in Washington.

Thus, it wouldn’t be wrong to hypothesize that Israel too would want to see an end to the current war before that happens. The only thing pending thus far is the release of the hostages by Hamas, who, I’d say are not too keen on doing it due to two factors – Leverage, and .. well .. EGO.

Handing over of the remaining hostages under the intense military pressure of Israel will only be seen as a loss of face for an entity in a culture that sees it as the ultimate humiliation.

That said, they might still do it under the threat of their very lives.

But I’ll hold on to my opinion till the time it actually happens. BTW, I hope folks are aware that Hamas are actually the OFFICIALLY ELECTED representatives of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. They came to power with a lot of public support. Small wonder then, that there was so much jubilation inside Gaza by all men, women and children as their ‘heroes’ brought back hostage after hostage from Israel on 07 Oct 2023. And when the inevitable bombs and bullets came, they cried GENOCIDE!

Yup. They started this ‘war’ with great cheer and fervour and undid all progress that had been achieved in Gaza over the past few decades.

Why?

Because, they want to eliminate the State of Israel from the world map and that includes each and every Israeli as well. With help of the Loonie Leftist cheerleaders, they have made this into a zero-sum game without having the hard power to actually do anything to withstand the relentless pounding from Israel that they are getting day in and day out.

Why I call them Loonies, you ask?

Here’s why :

However, the alarming thing is that these clueless, brainwashed idiots are far too many in numbers and will only grow over the years, thereby adding yet more layers of challenge to the already fucked up situation in Palestine / Israel. Thus, it is quite logical to assume that Israel would consider it imperative to make tangible gains and create an irreversibly favourable situation on ground before these folks grow and attain a critical mass in terms of political power.

So where do we go from here?

Well, all I can say is .. More Bloodshed, and that too in many more parts of the world.

It is just a sign of times that we are currently living in. The Leftist Brigade may be idiots, but they are unabashed in their pursuits.

Image

Time is running out fast.
At the cost of repetition I’ll say that all we can do is to ‘Brace Ourselves’ for what is to come .. much sooner than we think. The world is only going to get crazier, brief respites from violence notwithstanding.

In the end, I’ll just leave this chain of thoughts here.
I tweeted these a day after the 07 Oct 2023 attacks, i.e. exactly two years before today’s date.
Dare I say, nothing has changed since that day.
Do go thru it.

This tweet too deserves a mention here in this thread :

I conclude this particular chain of thoughts with this tweet below:

Thanks for your patience, folks.

:Fin:

On the Current Situation in Near and Far Neighbourhood

Harpreet Uncategorized , , , , , , , , , ,

Folks, sharing some thoughts on recent and current events in near and far neighbourhood. A lot of thoughts entangled in a web .. let me see how it goes

This report from some days ago is a good start point: US Centcom Chief very enthusiastically licking Pakistan’s unwashed backside!

Whenever such a news comes by, the first thought that goes through one’s head is, what are they planning! In this case, it was quite obvious that Iran was the target, as events proved within days. But I will come to that in a while.

My first thoughts on hearing this latest wooing of Pakistan by the Americans were about the ‘confidence boost’ that Pakistan would get! Confidence boost to do what, you asked? Well, this 👇 is what I wrote in one of my DM Groups a couple of days ago.

I have good reason to believe what I wrote above. Parliament Attack, Kaluchak Attack, 26/11 .. they all happened under the cover of US Operations in Afghanistan wherein India had to hold back own military response due to American pressure. Why else would an Indian PM call for Aar-Paar Ki Ladai after the monstrosity perpetrated by Pakistan backed terrorists in Kaluchak, and yet not do anything?

Even Operation Kabaddi that was planned in 2001 had to be abandoned due to 9/11 : 9/11 attack derailed Indian army’s “operation Kabbadi” to capture Pakistani posts along LoC: Book

Btw, do check out the time of the message in the screenshot above. The message was shared just minutes before the Air India Crash in Ahmedabad.

Mind you, I am NOT saying it is an act of sabotage / terror. But I did say this that evening on the same DM group 👇

 

Of course, the unfortunate Air India Crash may still turn out to be for reasons other than terror, but then with such Paaki sponsored terrorists saying on the record that they would target Air India flights does call for a tonne of skepticism.

But like I said .. it might just have been a terrible accident after all. Yet, knowing Pakistan, they may yet try something inside India, possibly even outside of J&K in order to test the limits of their new-found ‘friendship’ with America.

Hence the need to keep our powder dry.

Coming on to the attacks on Iran, let me start with quoting this 13 year old tweet here. In all probability, it was amongst the first few dozen tweets by me after creating this handle. Seems quite prescient now ..

For Israel, it is an existential threat and hence, it came as no surprise when they launched their attacks on Iran. How that plays out is anybody’s guess. I don’t intend talking much about that in this thread. But then, this question still remains 👇

Might the answer be Iran?

Or even Israel perhaps?

Really interesting times these, that we currently live in.

The KaalChakra grinds slowly but surely. Given the way the world is warring currently, all major powers except China and India are already directly involved, even if being geographically detached from physical violence like Europe and USA.

The wheels of history are moving faster and faster indeed. IMO, there is no running away from what awaits us over the coming few months and years. In our case as well, it is pertinent to note that Operation Sindoor has not yet been called off.

Coming back to our own neighbourhood, the imminent attack on Iran explains why Pakistan suddenly got a booster dose of alms through IMF / ADB etc right after Pahalgam Terror Attack / Op Sindoor. But what these bombastic idiots don’t realize is that these good days would not last long.

Long after the Americans are gone, the loans will continue to remain .. until they can whore themselves out all over again, that is!

Mind you, the CENTCOM Chief General Michael Kurilla, who talked so highly about Pakistan (see the beginning of this blog post) himself is a veteran of the US War in Afghanistan. He should be, in all probability, quite aware of the perfidious role of Pakistan in Op Enduring Freedom.

And just in case he might have missed out the sanctuary for Taliban across the Durand Line, the idiots of Pakistan spared no efforts in telling him and anyone else that was tuned in! This interview of a former ISI Chief is just one such example.

An Absolute MUST WATCH!

PS: Don’t miss the fawning applause from the highly impressed audience in the above video!

I think at this point it is important to highlight that Pakistanis are themselves ‘kafir’ to those who are not really big fans of the Islamic Bomb! Here is Netanyahu talking about it some years ago.

All in all .. the world is in a pretty fucked up situation right now.

And this is merely the beginning, I’d say. Much worse is yet to come as we move ahead.

Events that take decades to build up, suddenly happen in a matter of weeks. We are rapidly approaching that point now, IMO.

And where does that leave us in India, you asked? Well, our position with respect to Iran is still exactly the same as it was 13 years ago, for one!

Never mind the idiots in the US of A who are trying their best to piss off a large country in near neighbourhood of Iran / Israel .. a country that genuinely stands with Israel at that. Just because we don’t see Russia the same way as they do!

Btw, since Senator @LindseyGrahamSC Ji was crying about legal advice on the use of force, here is what came to my mind. I am sure she will agree with me!

That said, ramblings of US Senators make no marked difference in India standing up for its own interests. It never has, even though at times we have been forced into inaction as mentioned in the beginning of this blog.

Coming closer to our borders, what I foresee is a Pakistan increasingly desperate at not getting waters from Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej at the time and in quantities they desire, as was the case till they perpetrated the Pahalgam Terror Attack. This is a far more dangerous situation for them than even what was handed over to them from 07-10 May 2025 via Op Sindoor. The cacophony on Indus Water Treaty never quite died down in Pakistan. Because they know the real implications of this.

When their crop yields drop, or fail altogether, then they will realize the true import of the heartfelt call by the great visionary ZA Bhutto when he said ‘We shall eat grass’. Sadly, he was hanged shortly thereafter, else he would have been happy to see his dream come true!

Water is one thing that can bring Pakistan to try desperate measures, including more terror provocations. Thankfully, they have mitigated it to some extent by hacking into our dams and controlling the release gates remotely!

Phew! The world is saved by Paaki Genius .. AGAIN!

All said and done, the only thing that can be said with reasonable amount of surety is that we are headed for even greater chaos in the world in the coming weeks and months.

I’m just waiting to see if America directly gets involved in the latest Israel-Iran spat. Because if they do, it will open up windows of opportunity / threats in many different geographies of the world to take decisive action in their own neighbourhoods as well.

By the time the dust settles on this cycle of destruction and regeneration, not only grass but a lot of giants too would have been trampled to death. 

All I can say is, BRACE YOURSELVES, FOLKS .. it won’t be pretty.

With this, I end this particular chain of thoughts. I hope it made some sense to you. In case it didn’t .. well .. I can live with that!

Take care, folks!

:fin: