(This chain of thoughts was tweeted right after the initial reports of the airstrike came by. Sharing it here for archival purposes.)

So I woke up to this news and this tweet by the Brown Pants Propagandu-In-Chief!
(NOT a typo, btw)

Firstly, THE ACKNOWLEDGEMENT! It is big. It means that it was something they simply cannot hide away, unlike the #SurgicalStrikes. It also that gives me great satisfaction, personally. In fact I had tweeted this on the very night of the #PulwamaAttack

Link

Now, since they cannot simply wish it away, comes the bombastic statement by the Propagandu-in-Chief that IAF couldn’t achieve its mission.

Well, there are two aspects to it – firstly, in this time of Social Media & camera phones, how long before truth emerges?

Secondly, and more importantly, even IF the IAF failed, fact remains that Brown Panted rulers of Pak still confirm that the IAF came visiting

What will they do now?

Especially when they themselves have so pumped up their own population about their invincibility?

A population so brainwashed that it still believes it won the Kargil War and didn’t quite lose in 1971 either. In fact, I did a three part blog series on this. May have a look – State Sponsored Radicalization in Pakistan’s School Curriculum: Part 1 of 3

Point is that such Propagandu (again, NOT a typo) by a losing army, esp one that is the de-facto ruler of the country is in a way, understandable. But when you yourself start believing in it is when things go South and ‘Victory’ of 1965 turns into a thappad of 1971.

This is when the average citizen starts expecting their mighty Brown Pant Warriors to deliver a ‘befitting’ response to the eternal enemy. How dare the Indians even think about attacking the mighty Brown Pants, hainji?

THIS is when such things start trending on Twitter in Pak

My favourite of the above trends is #PakistanTayarHai.

Indeed, the Paki population is ready!

But what about the Brown Pants?

Why, despite 3-4 hours of the IAF bombing have they not sent their own air force across in retaliation? Weren’t their own aircraft patrolling their own cities to loud, bombastic cheers by their citizens?

Link

I mean, how far is the Indian border from those cities, hainji?
Or was it the loud noise that empty vessels are so prone to make?

My point is, that India has done what it has done.
And done it in a way that the Brown Pants simply cannot wish away (Just as I had hoped for. Refer second para of this blog).

What it means now is that onus of what happens next is now on the Brown Pants. As I see it, they have two options:

Option 1 – Retaliate

Option 2 – Play it down, pontificate, cry, but do nothing

Going strictly by their past track record, esp in light of the #SurgicalStrike, they will go with Option 2. But what is different this time is that, this thing cannot simply be denied, unlike the #SurgicalStrike

The very fact that the Propagandu-in-Chief woke up early in the morning to tweet about it means that it is something much bigger that what he makes you believe. What bolsters my argument is that there is complete silence from him since that early morning tweet. The reason possibly is that now they don’t know what to do with it.

Reminds me of a joke about a dog that always runs behind cars, until someone asks him what will he do if he ever manages to catch one!

Additionally, this time the GOI has not only done something big, it has done it in Pakistan, NOT PoK!

The ball is clearly in Pakistan’s court. Airstrikes, that too, this deep in Pakistan send a different message altogether.

Now, by merely striking terror camps and not the regular, uniformed jehadis, GOI has indeed given an avenue to the Brown Pants that a war / further escalation will happen ONLY if the Brown Pants want it.

And that is something I seriously doubt.

With tonnes of dispensable terrorists, a few dozens or 100s of them dead doesn’t matter, esp for an army that refused to accept its own dead in Kargil.

Plus, attacks on terror camps is something which the US itself has been doing in past, albeit with missiles. This is something which bolsters India’s case externally too (Not that it matters). What I now await is the reaction from Jaish. THAT is what will set the tone for what happens next. Esp when photographs emerge.

Ah, so the Propagandu-in-Chief is back online after his morning potty and weekly bath! Going back to photographs that I talked about in the previous tweet, this is the first set released officially by the Brown Pants.

Now will come photographs, including satellite imagery and those taken by the attacking aircraft themselves, that will be released by own side. Plus, photos taken by Pakis themselves in the immediate aftermath must already be circulating on their own WA groups.

Once those come out, the Propagandu-in-Chief will once again come out denying them.

But what about the mango, brainwashed Paki, and the mango, brain-dead Jaish ‘worker’?

They too will buy the party line – the IAF ran back.

YET, fact remains that the IAF came in and dropped bombs on Paki territory. The mango Paki WILL demand blood, and answers.

Here is how I visualize it panning out, ATLEAST INITIALLY.

They will issue ‘STRONG’ statements and dismiss this ‘attempt’ by IAF. They will try and be the ‘bigger’ power and pontificate about need to keep tempers under control (All that, while the Brown Pants themselves stock up on toilet paper)

Bottomline: They know their bluff has been called. What they need now is moral lectures on why not to escalate.

BUT ..

Bulk of their energies will now be dedicated to managing the opinions within their own country.

And THIS is where the ‘unknown’ lies. Over the coming hours and days, this is what the Brown Pants will be fighting against, not India. Once again, a story about a monkey with his hand caught in a jar of peanuts comes to mind!

Let me wind up this blog post by saying that this day suddenly becomes a lot more ‘interesting’. This is just the beginning, mind you. The events triggered by the #PulwamaAttack have still not been played down fully.

What if they are not able to answer the questions raised by their own countrymen?

Esp if the India side releases photographs of their own and more importantly, Pakis themselves get to see the photos of immediate aftermath clicked by their own jehadi countrymen?

As I said, interesting days ahead! Btw, you might want to google as to why the Paki Navy Chief resigned soon after Kargil War! 

 

This stream of thoughts was shared by me on Twitter last night in the immediate aftermath of the Pulwama Attack. Putting them here for archival purposes.

Firstly, what happened and how it happened is by now well known. So I won’t talk about it. In addition, it continues to be my belief that it is Pakis that are behind it. Thoughts on that are embedded in THIS blog post.

Let me concentrate instead on some thoughts that have been wracking my head for the past few hours. 

Firstly, and strictly a personal opinion, this is partly a manifestation of the planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Logistics & efforts from that end can now safely and easily be diverted to the 1000 year war that Bhutto promised before he was hanged.

Coming to timing, it couldn’t have been better, or worse, for that matter, depending on the glasses you wear while observing it – General elections on the horizon, Governor’s rule in Kashmir .. and more importantly, the Saudi Crown Prince about to land up in the sub continent. What sort of messaging might be going on, I’ll leave it for you to decipher.

Btw, on a not so unrelated note, next month is the 19th anniversary of the Chittishingpura massacre that happened on the eve of US President Bill Clinton’s visit to the sub continent.

That there is a definite, even if unintended, political angle to this is undeniable. All one needs to do is go thru the TL’s of some ‘celebrity’ journos and politicos. Of course, there are folks saying this was done solely for political purposes.

With the surgical strikes, including the recent bollywood movie, behind them, there seems to be absolutely no way that this govt won’t react. And given the magnitude of the attack, a similar surgical strike which the Pakis can easily deny, won’t cut it. In any case, this is something they must already be guarding against. Hence, I would personally rule out another surgical strike in which own soldiers will go across this time.

How and what shape might the reprisal take, I’ll leave to the CCS that meets soon.

But one thing is for sure – quite a LOT of folks won’t get much sleep tonight, on both sides of the LoC and within the hinterland.

Just as the attack, the response too needs to be ‘spectacular’, and one that is equally visible to the whole world. Herein lies the difference between the #PulwamaAttack and the Uri Attack – visuals of the attack itself.

Incidentally, just as the Uri attack itself, the reprisal in the form of the surgical strikes too was away from the ‘limelight’ until formally announced by the Indian Army. Hence, the Brown Pants of the Paki Fauj could so easily just dismiss the same.

This is what makes the job of the CCS that meets soon, a bit more complicated – An attack that was SEEN by the whole world deserves a response that is equally visible.

Now come the big questions – WHEN and HOW?

Firstly, let me talk about the ‘When’.

With the Saudi Prince very nearly on his way, would the GOI wait for his visit to culminate before doing anything and putting India – Saudi relations in an awkward place?

It is a very serious question indeed, given the recent uptick in the relationship. But in any case, his visit to both the countries will still be overshadowed by the incident.

On that note, why do I get a feeling that phone lines between New Delhi and Riyadh will be quite busy tonight. However small, but what might be the odds of the visit of the Saudi Prince being rescheduled in light of this attack, I wonder..

But the fact remains, that time is running out for the govt even as I type this. By that, I mean that time is running out politically as the elections come closer and closer.

Already, a narrative is building up, on twitter atleast, against the Govt and its security policies. So, the question of WHEN is a critical one for the govt, lest a response be spun as a political gimmick to win an election.

I mean that in all seriousness. My opinion is bolstered by the fact that more than just a few folks actually call Kargil as Vajpayee’s Re-Election War.

Now coming to the question of HOW.

A reprisal can take many forms – Diplomatic, Economic, or Military. I guess, whatever happens, a military response is a given, along with a Diplomatic one.

What form might the military response take, needs to be seen.

Like I said earlier, this time a Surgical Strike won’t cut it. The response simply HAS to be big, and more importantly, visible to all. In fact a highly visible response needn’t be that big since a very visible slap on the face of the Paki Fauj too will suffice.

Despite being in the news for all the wrong reasons, the Indian Air Force still remains leagues ahead of the PAF, as does the Indian missile force when compared to what the Pakis can bring to bear of their own.

Just got this on my mentions tab.

All I’ll offer is that Pakis are bluffing. The facade of irrationality will work only till such time someone gets ready to call their bluff. The moment you do so, you’ll find others joining you.

Talking of Paki bluff, how many of you remember PAF’s ‘valourous’ CAP sorties over Lahore and Islamabad as the Mumbai attacks raged in Nov 2008? Chests puffed, Pakis cheered them on, just because the IAF permitted them to fly unmolested.

Think.

Your army is as strong as you want it to be.

No enemy can stand in front of it.

Period.

Here’s a bet – within 24 hours atleast one ‘prominent’ Paki will remind the whole world that Pakis are a nuclear power.

That bombast is what has worked so far, but ONLY because no one has called them out on that.

I had tweeted this nearly four years ago. This decade is still not done, btw.

I am not saying this will precipitate another war. Far from it. All I am saying is that the sheer audacity and timing of it all means that there will be something coming their way soon enough.

Oh, btw, forget about the Kartarpur Corridor   It will remain yet another election issue against the govt, just as I mentioned some months ago in THIS  blog post.

Let me end this blog post with a prayer for the martyred CRPF boys and a hope that the Nation gives it back to the perpetrators in a form not seen for a long time.

Om Shanti ..