Folks, moving on from THIS blog that was posted about two weeks ago, let me share some ‘wild’ conspiracy theories about what I see happening in the coming few months.
Once again, writing on the go, so let’s see how this chain of thoughts goes!
Firstly, let me share with you all what triggered this chain of thoughts.
It was the tweet by Trump that the Chinese would be happy to see him lose the upcoming elections. Here is a screenshot of the tweet :
Now this is B.I.G
Here is a sitting President of USA openly insinuating that China is the enemy as far as his re-election bid goes.
Let me just say that such a statement means that he is committed to make China lose in order to win his upcoming re-election bid in about six months.
Is this a ‘spur of the moment’ tweet? I’d say not. Reason – The politician in him knows that there is widespread anger & disgust against China, thanks to the fiasco that their mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent attempts at ‘managing’ the public perception that actually backfired, thanks to their high-handed attempts. Did a short thread on Twitter about that as well. May have a look HERE, if interested.
So coming back to this blog, what does it mean, going ahead.
A constituency already exists which will endorse anything he does against China. And this cuts across political affiliations amongst the American electorate. What I foresee is a number of events in the coming few months that will, in all probability, make relatively recent US-China Trade War pale in comparison. Yes, this is likely to happen within the next few months, or even in a matter of weeks since timing it to pay dividends during the upcoming election won’t be a bad idea either!
Once again, remember, the US Presidential election is ONLY about six months hence. Another thing that underscores this belief of mine is the relatively speedily moving chain of events / statements from people in the know.
Sharing some screenshots here (For your eyes only!)
Go through the screenshots in the above thread again.
Fairly routine, no – blaming China and blah blah blah?
Or are they?
Yup, look again!
THIS is the one that caught my eye when it appeared on my TL!
Did the US just call for junking the ‘One China Policy’, adherence to which is COMPULSORY if you want the Chinese to ‘oblige’ you by doing business with you?
Well, looks like the US Mission in UN just took the wind out of the sails of the ‘One China Policy’!
This is H.U.G.E
An interesting nugget of info – Till 1971, it was the Republic of China (or Taiwan) that held the permanent UN Seat along with the Veto, which was thereafter given to the Peoples Republic of China after the Nixon-Kissinger led détente with Mao.
But .. coming back to the four screenshots shared above. Here is another one.
Why this tweet?
Because the phrase “Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down This Wall!” actually spurred the breaking down of the Berlin Wall & subsequent break-up of the USSR.
Talk about signalling, eh?
So, signalling apart, what is it that the USA under Trump can actually do to China?
Well, I’d say there is a lot that can be done.
It can range all the way from tariff increases to throwing out all Chinese companies and businesses from the US!
I understand if you say I am daydreaming outlandish dreams. I won’t fault you for that. Remember, I used the words ‘Conspiracy Theories’ in the very beginning of this blog!
So, back to my flights of fancy!
Remember, America just announced a stimulus package of TWO TRILLION dollars to jump-start its economy. The question is, where does this money come from?
Of course, they can simply print away in their dollar printing presses, no?
They can seek reparations from China?
Just like a few other countries are already doing, no?
In fact, they are already in the process of doing so, by the way of lawsuits already filed in US courts or in the process of being filed!
Do you still think it is mere signalling and hot air?
If it were merely so, why would China be spooked like hell?
Why would Shri Hu Xijin, the de-facto social media mouthpiece of the CCP make this ‘not so veiled’ counter-threat?
What does he know that we don’t?
And more importantly, what does China have to lose in the midst of this all?
Let us see ..
(A) 1.1 TRILLION dollars worth of American debt that they have purchased by the way of American treasury bonds.
(B) (Well, do you need any more examples after the above one?!)
The question now is .. Will He Do It?
My counter question to that is .. WHY WON’T HE?
What does he have to lose, huh, except a second term as the President of the USA?
You do the Math!
There are already talks about removing sovereign immunity of China in US, remember?
Would China react?
Of course they would!
Chairman Xi ‘Winnie The Pooh’ Jinping wouldn’t want to be sent to a re-education camp, would he?
‘coz that is exactly what will happen since he is already mightily weakened within! (If you don’t believe me, start by reading THIS piece)
To top it, his ‘defeat’ in the recent US-China trade war hasn’t done him any favours either!
Now, top that with the COVID-19 and the attendant negative press and you get my drift, right?
Btw, speaking of Xi Jinping, here is what I tweeted some weeks ago!
But then, when it comes to a matter of life and death, can China afford NOT to react?
They did react in whatever way they could during the trade war.
But to what end?
Bottomline – They have no counter leverage on the US.
But, what is to say that things will only stay confined to economic realm?
A dying empire of an emperor who has everything to lose will simply HAVE to thrash out, even if in sheer impotence. Here one needs to look at recent happenings in South China Sea as well!
(HERE is the link to the tweet above, for those interested)
What bolsters my belief is the fact that the US is rapidly reclaiming the space it had to unwillingly cede to China due to its Navy getting laid low on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Heck, USS Nimitz is already on its way to the SCS!
Here’s some more food for thought, btw!
Btw, Taiwan too is moving in to play the game.
They’ve waited long enough for the day they achieve their manifest destiny. To them I’d say, time is nigh!
One wouldn’t be surprised to see Taiwan actually end up in the UN at about this time next year!
Bottomline – The China dream is over. Their dreams of playing the big brother to the rest of the world will not fructify. They still have NO idea about how much bad press they have accumulated for themselves in eyes of practically each and every common citizen of the free world.
The hubristic and autocratic CCP have failed spectacularly in failing to recognize that people outside of their control won’t simply roll over and believe whatever propaganda they dish out.
And then, they seek to interfere in democratic elections in the USA of all places!
Coming back to the US elections – do you also see a political masterstroke in Trump’s statement that Joe Biden is China’s preferred candidate?
Do you see what it does to Biden?
Trump has forced Biden to prove that he is NOT doing China’s bidding, atleast till the election day!
All in all, I foresee a repeat of the US-China trade war in the coming few weeks, only this time on steroids.
Chinese industry being chucked out – Check
Lawsuits against China – Check
Chinese assets being seized – Check
Chinese govt personnel being sanctioned – Check
USS Nimitz transiting thru the Taiwan Strait – Who knows!
A shooting clash in the SCS – QUITE likely, I’d say
Removal of Xi Jinping by 2022 – Very likely
US recognition of Taiwan – ??
But then, this is all just a conspiracy theory / figment of my imagination, no?!