So this tweet generated quite an interesting discussion on my mentions yesterday.
Even though the circumstances regarding the WHO meet have changed by now, yet I will take some time to take this chain of thoughts forward. So here are my thoughts on whether it is time for Indian to change her policy on Taiwan.
Firstly, why the current policy?
Well, this is due to the Paranoid Republic of China’s insistence on the world recognizing Taiwan as their province; basically the ‘One China Policy’.
Never mind that the Taiwanese have been administering themselves for the past 71 years in a democratic republic that the Communist overlords of China can only find threatening to their very survival!
After all, how can a ‘renegade’ province of the Middle Kingdom be democratic!
So much so that they go on issuing ‘experience’ certificates to all that ‘dare’ to engage with Taiwan!
With their increased economic and military heft, they have been successful in bulldozing practically the entire world in keeping Taiwan at an arm’s length.
To be fair to the CCP, they did it because, well, they could!
Might is right, after all!
I won’t delve much on that since it is a well known fact. However, what has happened in the very recent past is that the #WuhanCoronaVirus pandemic has shaken the very foundations of the current world order.
I wrote about that some weeks ago, HERE.
Herein lies an opportunity for the entire world to shrug off the rising Middle Kingdom & their arrogant, sanctimonious ways.
Knowing the Chinese, they must have prepared a roadmap for next 50 years as to how to go about their ‘peaceful’ rise & who all to ‘teach a lesson’ on the way as they do so. But this #ChineseVirus pandemic and their typical handling of the entire mess has put a MASSIVE spoke in the wheels of history that the Chinese must have planned for themselves.
EACH and EVERY person in each and every country, more or less, is seething with anger at them.
Even as Trump said that the US might even de-couple from China in ALL respects across the board, others too are doing much the same, or atleast a bit of the same.
Bottomline is that the world is changing faster and faster, geopolitically speaking.
India won’t be immune to it either, in case anyone of us is thinking that way. We may not be faced with a ‘With us or Against us’ question, but the thing is that we will be EXPECTED to play the role of an upcoming power that we are.
Going forward from this point, let me offer a disclaimer – I am in no way prescribing a ‘way ahead’ for Govt of India. What I write hereon are strictly my personal views!
I am sanguine that the GOI will act in whatever way they feel is best for the country under current circumstances. It may or may not conform to my views, but so be it!
Coming to the issue of India and her re-evaluating relationship with Taiwan, let us be very clear about one thing – The current relationship is what it is, thanks to the ‘sensitivities’ of the Paranoid Republic of China.
Let’s have no doubt about that.
And, a reset in the India-Taiwan relationship too will be an outcome of the state of India-China relationship.
Which brings me to the next question – What is the current state of the India-China relationship?
Well .. does that really need an answer?
China has been our neighbour ever since they invaded Tibet in 1950. Ever since then, they have been an excellent example of a BAD neighbour.
I’ll be glad to be corrected on the above statement!
I think this tweet below sums up the current India-China relationship perfectly.
The Paranoid Republic of China is NO ONE’S friend. They will act nice if you kowtow. Else they WILL do all in their powers to undermine you.
As far as India goes, they have been shielding the terrorist Masood Azhar at every international forum. They have been dumping cheap goods in our markets, undermining our own manufacturing industry.
Heck, they provided the NUCLEAR BOMB to Pakistan!
Oh, and did I tell you that they also provided missiles to Pakistan to deliver those nukes to India?
Well they did!
How else would Pakistan – a country that didn’t even manufacture ball bearings at that time, get a missile programme all of a sudden?! (State Department Issued Public Notice of MTCR Sanctions Against China.)
So, is it time for a reboot of India’s relationship with China?
I’d say, YES it is.
We are in the midst of a massive ‘Manthan‘ these days. In fact the entire world is.
All thanks to the #CCPVirus.
Indian economy is staring at another 1991 type moment today – both in terms of challenges as also, opportunities. Given the recent announcements by the Finance Minister, the changes expected in the coming months are not merely expected to stem the downfall, but instead, to unshackle it all over again and establish India as a major manufacturing hub, unburdened by antiquated laws.
Herein also lies a hint in what the Prime Minister said – Aatmanirbhar Bharat!
For all those who care to listen, it also means saying NO to cheap, CCP subsidized Chinese imports that are killing our own industry.
Thing is, that this blog post of mine might actually be a bit too late, and a reset of India-China relations might already be well and truly underway.
Hints too are everywhere.
Trump has well & truly shaken up the ‘normal’. And to compliment him, there is a GOI with an immense popular mandate as well!
Now since I said that ‘hints are everywhere’, does that mean our friends, the Chinese too are listening to it?
I’d say yes they are.
So how do they react?
Well, you may want to revisit this tweet again!
Recent transgressions on the LAC do point to an arm-twisting kind of a tactic in order to warn India to stay away from the US-China spat. Such transgressions have happened earlier too, most prominently when Emperor Xi ‘Winnie The Pooh’ Jinping visited Gujarat some years ago.
So, to that end, it could still be dismissed as mere posturing.
But then, via their commie proxies in Nepal, they opened up another front – a non-existent border dispute at Lipulekh Pass.
Do you still think this is mere posturing?
Well, I don’t.
To me, it seems that the Chinese have already fired a shot across our bow.
What makes me say this?
It is THIS statement by the Chinese representative in New Delhi that made be take note!
And he says it with a straight face, no less, even as his army gets into fisticuffs with ours on the borders!
A popular saying about ‘actions and words’ comes to my mind!
Bottomline: The world is rapidly realigning.
Non alignment in this time and age might not be an option.
Heck, it might not even be advisable since we might have more to lose than gain if we stand aside!
Just as the Lord knew that Mahabharat was inevitable, despite he himself taking the Pandavas’ offer of peace in lieu of five villages to the Kauravas, so is this new and upcoming New World Order.
To stand aloof is NOT going to be an option this time round.
Especially when India stands to gain perhaps the maximum out of a PRC cut down to size. I wrote a BLOG on what I foresee coming in the coming weeks and months, less than two weeks ago.
Dare I say, things are already moving that way.
Do have a look at the above quoted blog post whenever you get the time!
What might be the first shot, remains to be seen.
For all we know, it might be forthcoming at the WHO in a matter of a few hours from right now (Coalition of 62 nations backs Australia’s push for COVID-19 probe)
Disagree with me on the W.H.O thing?
Well, that’s your choice.
But I did notice that Chairman Xi Jinping postponed a major CCP event that was about to happen at about the same time.
Do tell me again why he is not spooked!
Guess why the Chinese are so angry with Australia for asking for an independent probe into the origin of the coronavirus pandemic?
Do they feel threatened?
If not, then why are they lashing out?
Heck, there is already talk in the USA of an alternative grouping in lieu of the W.H.O in case they do not desist from doing Chinese bidding. Just see this video at about the 1:15 mark!
Like I said in the beginning of this blog post, it STILL might not begin at the W.H.O, but happen it will!
If not this week then maybe the week after.
If not at the W.H.O, then at the economic front.
But happen it will!
Why do I get the feeling that a reset of relationship with Taiwan will form an inescapable part of this upcoming showdown?
Not just by the US, but by India as well?
If not full diplomatic recognition, then maybe a vote in their favour over China?
Food for thought, no?
Yes, Taiwan’s map of China claims Arunachal Pradesh. But will that really matter in case China itself retreats from Tibet?
Yes, I know it is a long shot, but not entirely impossible.
In any case, whom would you prefer as a neighbour when it comes to resolving a boundary dispute – an intensely dogmatic communist regime that simply will NOT listen to reason, or a democratic nation who is open to negotiations?
Remember the enclaves swap with Bangladesh some years ago?
As I wind up this blog post, all I will say that time has come to bite the bullet, either which way. It is nothing short of a ‘Dharm Yudhh’ that faces us and the rest of the world.
Yes, the ‘Manthan’ that I talked about above WILL throw up poison as well, before the nectar.
But it will happen regardless of we being part of the Manthan or not.
We should be prepared to deal with the poison, in order to get to the nectar eventually.
The more people there are to share the poison, the better it will be, no?
Even if it is in the form of a vote in favour of Taiwan, if not an outright diplomatic recognition, all I’ll say is Bring It On!
We should not, in fact we CANNOT sit this one out.
3 thoughts on “India-Taiwan Relationship: Time for a Reset?”
A big RED FLAG – China’s tone and actions are not of the conciliatory kind one would typically expect from a nation that is looking to repair relations with a post COVID19 world. Be it, the ramp up in HK or across the border with India OR thumbing down the threat of sanctions from the US.
That simply reinforces the theory that this is a well thought out plan – force its narrative across a world that is reeling from the economic damage from COVID-19. The Chinese economy did not take much of a shock, as revenues from manufacturing were quickly replaced by becoming the primary source of PPE equipment to a panicked world with huge demand and no time for quality control or mandatory customs invoice checks.
China has well thought out plan for the path it is currently treading on. Question is – is the world ready? Keep in mind, it will taken a lot of posturing from the rest of the world as China will fall back being a pandemic victim, whenever it is called out on being bellicose.
Interesting times for the rest of the world, but for China. History is witness…
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We should NOT waste time to tease out the reasons for Chinese transgressions. Keep it simple – Lesson that needs to be passed on to China is simple and straight forward – “Don’t make the world your theater for your internal drama”. The world should make China politicians and army pay for their actions, and not get sucked up into playing counsellor. Handle them like you handle the bevda who creates a tamasha because he is unhappy with his wife or job. The bevda gets booted on his ass nevertheless and told sternly keep his drama within the bevda’s 4 walls. So boot the PLA if you can, don’t get sucked up into their drama.
China will then learn to fight their drama within the walls of China and not create the world their theater. HongKong, Taiwan or the Indo China border – deal with the actions firmly. Let history handle the intent.
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India still uses the “Ramayana” playbook, when it is time to go with the “Mahabharat” playbook. Modi needs to use “plausible deniability” just like Xi does when he plays the PLA card and pretends he does not have a clue.
Here are a few examples of political craftsmanship:
1. Pakistan PM claiming he does not have a clue what the ISI is up to and he fears that he might get overthrown, so please help
2. Xi claiming that he does not know what the PLA is up to in Doklam and just to prove his point sacrifices PLA leaders, who were disposable anyways
3. Obama asking Putin for help in biding over the domestic crisis and then selective amnesia
So where is India – still stuck in old British/Mughal indoctrinations – where we hold ourselves by standards that no one in the world ever follows.
If a fucked up tiny biny itwsy witsy Pakistan can do it, what the F is India waiting for????