Folks, sharing some thoughts on the still ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, esp in light of recent developments. Let’s see how it goes!
At the outset, I’ll begin with a sincere ‘R.I.P Ukraine’.
I’ll explain my POV further on in this blog post. Feel free to disagree.
However, before moving ahead I’ll leave this chain of thoughts blogged just over 9months ago here. Glad to see I was atleast partly correct!
Anyone with a reasonable thinking head on his shoulders would have come to a conclusion by now that Russia is just not going to stop before either Ukraine is utterly destroyed, or a Russia-friendly regime replaces the Kiev Comedian that has gone amok. However, that doesn’t mean they would just back off from interfering in Russia’s backyard, especially after repeated assertions of this being construed as a Redline by Russia!
On the contrary, nothing would please them more than to see Russia getting into a prolonged war.
I’d say that the ‘wounds’ of Vietnam and Afghanistan are still fresh enough for the ‘Civilized’ World, or America, in other words, to seek the same for Russia as well. Yet, there remains a crucial difference – Ukraine is pretty much Russian backyard, unlike USA that was fighting an enemy thousands of miles from home. However, parallels with the relationship of Cuban Missile Crisis to the Americans, with the prospect of a Western Stooge Ukraine for Russia will never be heard. It would be a bit too ‘inconvenient’, to say the least.
In the meantime, thousands of common Ukrainians will keep dying, just so that the big powers can play their shadow games on their lands, at their expense. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – They will fight Russia till the last Ukrainian. Period.
Don’t believe me?
Well, I’d say this report shines a light not on the efficacy or accuracy of Russian weapons, but rather on the lack of Ukrainian civilian casualties!
Now THAT would’ve been great PR for warmongers, no?
Once again, just my opinion. Feel free to disagree!
So .. on the topic of PR, what could showcase a true Wartime LEADER, than videography ahead of a green screen, hainji? Especially, when ‘heroic’ background can be added at leisure subsequently!
Nope, this is NOT the misinformation campaign that ‘free’ media cries about bitterly!
I think in video, it seems even ‘cooler’, no? I’m sure that Shri Goebbels Ji would wholeheartedly endorse this propaganda from the nether world where he must have taken up residence after his death!
That is not to say that the ‘brave’ camera crews are not putting their own lives at risk, what with missiles and kamikaze drones flying about freely in Ukrainian skies!
Moving on to the other side of the borders, news of the mobilization by Russian last month seems to have already been forgotten, thanks to what has followed since then.
But remember, post WW1 and WW2, I don’t think Russians ever ordered such a mobilization.
This announcement by itself should have been an alarm bell for the West.
Do note I didn’t say Ukraine, but instead, I said ‘West’. That is because IMO, the Ukrainian leadership have already handed over control over what comes next, to the West.
Once again, feel free to disagree.
What caused Russia to mobilize was a series of setbacks on the battlefield, thanks to the uninterrupted and unparalleled influx of advanced weaponry from the West into Ukraine. They chose NOT to see the fact that thus far Russian attacks were kept relatively localised to what was assumed to be lands inhabited mostly by ethnic Russian peoples.
Pretty soon came the referenda in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, this time backed up with a Russian military that was rapidly increasing the number of troops on Ukrainian borders.
A sensible leadership would have read the tea leaves and sought a negotiated settlement, even if from a relatively weaker position.
But for that, you need a politician leading the country, not a showman recording statements in front of a green screen!
On the contrary, I’d say Ukrainian leadership was egged on to ‘keep fighting’, perhaps with vague promises of over military help (remember the charade of admitting Ukraine to NATO some weeks back that was vetoed by some members?).
And predictably, they fell for it!
They needed to do something ‘spectacular’. Hence came the attack on the #CrimeaBridge. The entire western world went into a frenzy of backslapping each other and patting their own backs as well.
But just like their other pet, Pakistan, they failed (or maybe chose not) to wargame how Russia would react. That bridge wasn’t merely a key logistic infrastructure, but a symbol of Russian resurgence and assertiveness as well.
It was an attack on their national pride, I’d say.
To think that Russians would just roll over and go back to their bases after such an attack, would have been idiocy of the highest level. Of course, the inevitable happened – the war became truly ‘all-encompassing’ for the Ukrainians.
What was a localized conflict, now expanded to the entire Ukrainian landmass, with the latest round of attacks over Kiev happening earlier today. I still remember visuals of the ‘BESTEST‘ Air Defence Systems being gifted to Ukraine. But this is what it came down to ultimately:-
Of course, the voices of ‘outrage’ became even shriller as the days went by. However, if you noticed, there was one thing that was constant in all this right from the beginning of the conflict – It was Putin’s war against Ukraine.
It has always been Putin that was painted as the bad man hell bent upon destroying a smaller country.
Never mind, that the smaller country itself is being egged on with vague promises of NATO membership by the same folks who now act aghast at the punishment being meted out to it!
Of course, a NATO membership for Ukraine would never have happened in the best of the circumstances, not to talk about what shit it is in as of right now. For all their boom and bluster, they are happy to fight the Russians so long as their own soldiers aren’t the ones dying.
What followed soon after the missiles over Kiev was one expert after another, talking about the possibility of Putin using a tactical nuke against Ukraine. In fact, some idiots were actually looking forward to it. Climate change, you see!
A lot of sabres too were taken out from the storage and rattled loudly!
But fact of the matter remains that however sad that day might be, but in case Putin decides to actually use a nuke, even a tactical nuke, over Ukraine what will the West do?
Will they nuke Russia in return? And risk a nuclear retaliation on themselves?
Or will they sanction Russia?
Oh, wait! Haven’t they done that already??!!
In fact, the sanctions have instead hurt the Western economies much more than Russia!
Being a critical supplier of much needed gas and oil, Russia has been able to weather the sanctions storm much much better than Europe or even the USA!
It is bound to be a cold winter for much of Europe.
In fact, this is the reason that they continued to buy Russian gas throughout the war, effectively funding it, even as they supplied weapons to Ukraine and blamed India for purchasing Russian oil!
But as the war dragged on (majorly due to Europe and USA’s own hyperbole), they realised the need for gas in the fast arriving winters. Already, common people in Europe were feeling the heat, even if merely figuratively, since there was little gas to actually heat up their homes!
No wonder, they were having second thoughts! Because instead of merely Ukrainians, their own citizens were now suffering!
And VOILA .. the NordStream pipeline got MAGICALLY damaged!
Or was it sabotaged by ‘someone’ out of a ‘necessity’ to remove any hope of gas supplies in winter, thereby removing any reason for civil protests against their warmonger govts?
Never mind. No need to answer that question!
Coming on to what comes next ..
Well, one thing is for sure .. the war will NOT end as long as Zelensky is in charge. Some might say the same for Putin as well, but thanks to the info blockade on Russian perspective, one isn’t really sure whether a successor would cease the war!
Btw, I hope that the very casual way that I talked about Putin’s successor highlights a thought that I have been having for some days now: By making it Putin’s War against Ukraine and scaremongering about nukes, is it correct to say that the West is positing for an assassination?
All said and done, in the long run there is only one outcome for Ukraine out of two possibilities that I see: Either accept the curse of geography and learn to live with Russia; or die trying to do otherwise.
All the rest is a matter of inconsequential detail.
The world is fast heading for a major shake-up. In fact, I’d say that we are well into one. How that ends up will only be known once the dust settles, which might take upto a decade or even more. But one thing is for sure – the current world order is dying fast.
Dare I say, India too won’t be left untouched.
Multiple hits have already started ever since the West realized that India doesn’t quit appreciate a ‘With us or Against us’ kind of scenario and has its own interests as a priority instead. And no, it isn’t for the first time that India has acted in its own self-interest either!
However, the West does realise the seriousness of the war they are fighting this time round. Many say that they won the cold war. But with the benefit of hindsight, they are still fighting it.
And it seems to be getting HOTTER each passing minute, even as their citizenry freezes!
This is what puts into context the increasing hits against India by the likes of the UK, US and even Germany. But what they don’t realise is that we live, and actually thrive, in far more contradictions everyday than they can even dream about!
Just take a Rs 10 currency note and count the number of languages printed on it and you will understand what I wrote above. Tolerance for ambiguity is something that is no less than a critical survival skill for politicians / govts in India.
And dare I say, we are working in our own way to find our own footing in the rapidly transitioning world order. We may yet fail in our endeavour but atleast that won’t be for the lack of trying; this is something that I am sure of.
Currency swaps, gold purchases, internationally growing UPI network, controlled foodgrain exports are but a handful of steps that are overtly visible. One can only imagine the number of equally or even more critical steps happening behind the scenes that you & I may never know!
As far as the UN is concerned, well, it has been and continues to be inconsequential. It came about as a result of two world wars and a failed League of Nations and reflected the global balance of power at that time. That balance is rapidly changing.
They are struggling to adapt!
It is indeed an ‘exciting’ time to be alive. Dare I say, if we are lucky to be alive at the end of the next decade, the world that we die in, would be much different from the one we were born in. Whether that would be good or bad for you and/or me, needs to be seen!
As far as Ukraine in its current form is concerned, they already are collateral damage. In fact, history and geography had predicated this outcome for them. This is what I tweeted more than 8 years ago. It is a wonderful book, btw. Even more relevant today.
Btw, talking about the UN and its priorities, I think this tweet is a perfect specimen of where they are headed!
Refer a few paragraphs above regarding the Nordstream sabotage. THIS is what they were banking upon, even as they continued to arm Ukraine against Russia. A possible understanding might have been continued gas supplies, as happened even during the heights of the cold war, perhaps?
They failed to realize that in a fight for the very survival, something would have to give way. And that their own hands might be forced by an undersea sabotage!
Talking about gas shortages, I’ll just leave a few screenshots that I found amusing, to say the least! The last screenshot of a tweet by @ThePollLady is a personal favourite!
On a more serious note, what is happening in the world today is not some fluke, or due a megalomaniac Putin. Instead, it was something that was pre-planned, but got delayed due to Trump getting elected! “2017 will be the year of offense” – Lindsey Graham (PS: Don’t miss the gleeful hand rubbing!)
So what comes next, you ask?
Well, my reply to that would be ‘Who Knows!’
All I can say is that a lot of actors are involved, all at the same time. This includes India, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and even Pakistan.
How this interplay of power and money pans out, is going to be really interesting to watch and follow. What I genuinely believe is that a new world order is round the corner. But to achieve that would require a LOT of blood, since the wheels of history do not move without that.
So Brace yourselves, folks! From a de-dollarized economic order, to a multipolar world order or even an entirely chaotic interplay of nations & countries, anything is possible! Till then, wait & watch it is.
Karmic Cycle carries on, for nations, civilizations as well as individuals
Thank you for your patience. I’ll finish this chain of thoughts here, with this self-congratulatory tweet!