Came across THIS tweet above some time yesterday and got thinking .. Can we really be ‘CHINDIA’?
After all our ‘history’, the question sure seems interesting!
Of course, the fact that I recently re-started this book does help a bit!
Just sharing some thoughts, still somewhat disjointed. But here goes!
I’ll set the tone by paraphrasing a Hindi saying. ‘There can NEVER be two swords in a single scabbard’. I started tweeting on 29 Jan 12. THIS tweet below was amongst my first few, on 12 Feb 2012.
The one thing about the Cold War was that the two major powers were separated by an ocean or two, and a number of buffer states in Europe. However, another ‘not so major’ power, China shared a land border with the USSR and another ‘not so major power’, India. And guess what happened across those borders in 1962, 1967 and 1969!
All this while the major powers were fighting each other too, though not directly. Proxies did the dirty job, even where atleast ONE of the superpowers was involved – Cuba, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea .. the works. But USSR & US troops never faced each other directly.
Flash back to 1962 and 1967. What happened on the battlefields is mentioned here in THIS Blog Post from some days ago. The one thing that the PLA (hopefully) learnt that the Indian soldier was no pushover. A fact that was only reinforced in 1987 at Sumdorong Chu when they were stared down, just as it happened 3 decades later at Doklam. The PLA knew that a shooting match with the IA will be VERY costly.
However, something happened in 1963 that gave the Chinese, an army for hire .. a fanatic army at that, with one single ambition – to show ‘Hindu’ India its place. And it came at not much cost. Heck, they even kowtowed, offering a strategic piece of land too, the Shaksgam Valley!
The Pakis had found their ‘Higher than Himalaya’, ‘Deeper than Deepest Ocean’, ‘Sweeter Than Honey’ (the list of a$$ licking platitudes continues to grow still) benefactor. A benefactor that knew no scruples. All it needed was a (pin)prick that could keep a potential rival – India – engaged away from the LAC.
And the Pakis revelled in this ‘job’. They were simply ‘Made of It’!
The Hans too did their bit. The Chinese too made a big show of ‘helping’ their ‘friends’. In 1965, they made a HUGE show that fizzled out.
In 1971, Tikka Khan’s rapist army in East Pakistan was fed on false hope till the very end that the Chinese are coming! None came, though. Their job was done – Indian Army was fighting AWAY from the LAC! But things somewhat changed thereafter. With Bhutto promising a 1000yr war with India & pledging to even eat grass in his quest for nukes, the Han overlords were only too happy to oblige!
Such was the benevolence that they even invited the then Paki Foreign Minister to ‘witness’ a nuclear test at Lop Nor in May 1983. Mind you, this was NOT a case of nuke proliferation. Or was it? Will talk about it at a later day.
But SURPRISE .. the Pakis soon ‘hinted’ about the ‘nuclear option’ during Brasstacks just a few years later!!
Mere coincidence? Your call! (This LINK might help)
But the topic I intend to cover here is not nuke proliferation. Instead I wish to talk about Missile proliferation from China to Pakistan. Indian IGMDP was launched in 1983. With the experience of a decent space pgme atleast 2 decades old, the missile pgme saw the Prithvi launched in 1988 & the Agni in 1989.
Suddenly, out of the blue, the Pakis ‘magically’ came up with a missile pgme of their own! The Hatf 1 magically appeared in 1989, tested and inducted! Soon followed by Shaheen, Ghauri, Babar series of missiles!
This from a country that STILL does not manufacture even a decent car of its own. But it’s military hardware production is supposedly all indigenous! Magic, no? Yup. Magic indeed, If u discount the fact that Chinese entities were in fact, under sanctions at about the same time for exporting M-9 & M-11 missiles to Pakistan. The reports available online are very candid with details. Here’s an EXAMPLE
China being under international pressure, the proliferation in the second half of the 90s was ‘outsourced’ to Pyongyang! So much so that Benazir Bhutto herself acted as a conduit while on one of her short, fauj approved stints as the Paki PM! Of course, the ‘pinnacle’ was reached in 1999, when North Korea was caught shipping an entire assembly blueprint + hardware of missile assembly line, when the Captain of the ship docked at Kandla Port looking to make an easy buck on the side! (LINK: On North Korean Freighter, a Hidden Missile Factory)
Another giveaway is the apparently 100% success rate of Paki missile tests!
A test of a ‘new’ missile out of the blue and the same is declared an instant success, with the missile being inducted into the Pak Army inventory! Yes, ppl are simply amazed at this level of technological ‘advancement’ of KRL!
Unless of course, failed missiles end up in Iran! (LINK)
100% successes are possible only because failures have been outsourced to China/North Korea.
Bottomline: China has played a smart game by outsourcing the fight against its principle regional adversary to an all to willing proxy, something that we either cannot, or refuse to see.
(Photo: Pakistani and Chinese Border Guards – Hand in Hand!)
Chanakya’s soul mAust surely be mightily agitated at seeing our passive acquiescence at this wanton disregard to our national security. And what have we to show for it?
Things are slowly changing lately, but the opportunities lost are simply mind boggling. Vietnam still awaits the Brahmos, even after many years of first asking for it. Prithvis are not even being considered for export!
Today, even Bangalore is in the range of Chinese missiles based out of Pakistan, and here we are, still abiding by the rules like ‘good boys’! This when China blatantly disregarded each and every treaty / commitment to play merry hell with our security! Prithvis / Brahmos on Vietnamese / Taiwanese soil will do for us exactly what China has achieved – force your adversary to look behind his back.
So yes, coming back to where it all started from. Chindia ain’t gonna happen!
Not till they keep arming proxies.
Not till they continue to be on our borders by occupying Tibet.
India and China is a civilizational conflict. Period.
It stayed dormant till the Hans came calling in Lhasa in 1950. It will continue to be active till such time they continue to be in occupation of Tibet. Like I said in the beginning – ‘Ek Myaan Mein Do Talwar’